Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Fix the Pistons (please)

For the 4th most popular team in Detroit to be headline news is quite an accomplishment. People don't expect much from the Detroit Pistons, but their dreadful play the past two weeks received some notice. On February 8th, the Pistons lost a nip-and-tuck game to the Spurs. No major shock there. The Spurs are the best team in the league, and the Pistons actually had a chance to win before succumbing to their usual late-game miscues. They then traveled to Cleveland and eked out a win to continue Cleveland's losing streak. The next three games were at home, and, if the Pistons were going to make any run at the playoffs, this would be the time.

To not make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference would be quite an embarrassment. The fact that the Pistons, with their awful record, could even conceive of a playoff run is a testament to the lack of quality teams. In fact, when the coaches picked the All-star reserves for the East, only three teams were represented.

The Pistons opened their home-stand with a blowout loss to Miami. The game was over by the 1st quarter. They then lost to an undermanned Portland team - a game in which Kuester mysteriously subbed out Will Bynum late in 4th quarter, after Bynum repeatedly created both turnovers on defense and points on offense. Kuester's move prompted his assistant coach, Darrell Walker, to audibly criticize the move. Ironically, it was Stuckey, not Bynum, who later got into it with Kuester (once again). Following the Portland loss, the Pistons decided to at least make a token appearance on the court in a blowout loss Atlanta. The players didn't care. Minutes after the game, T-Mac tweeted about Valentines day. The team's slogan is a joke:


Now that Rip Hamilton is out with an injury, that storyline no longer distracts from the poor product on the court. With such a bleak future, it's clear the team is now Lionized.

There aren't many new faces on this roster. Most players have had a long run with the organization. It's time for some changes. In the salary cap era, how much change is possible? Let's take a look...

Starters:
Ben Wallace - Under contract next season for $2.2M. He has a tradeable salary, and a contender may actually want his still tenacious rebounding and defense. At 36, he's clearly not the same Defensive Player of the Year, but he's not embarrassing himself either. With all the drama on the Piston roster, Ben often offers the lone voice of reason (and levity). Despite his tradeable salary, I doubt the Pistons would get anything of equal value in return.
Verdict: Keep him.

Greg Monroe - The past three games, he averaged 7 points and 4 boards. It's possible he's hit the dreaded "Rookie Wall". My guess is that it's a combination of fatigue, lethargy from the losing, and general confusion from being associated with this disjointed lot. Obviously, he's one of the few bright spots on this roster and cornerstone for the future. The Pistons got a look at Lamarcus Aldridge on Sunday - a player that Monroe should emulate. Aldridge has the inside/outside game that can drive opponents crazy (like the Pistons who have allowed 40pts/game from him the last two seasons). He's a far cry from Aldridge, but the kid can grow.
Verdict - Keep him.

Tayshaun Prince - Expiring contract - free agent. I'm torn about this guy. With the walls crumbling around him, he tries so hard. I may be in the minority here, but I think the Pistons should hold onto him. Despite being the player who would bring the most value in a trade, I believe Tay is the type of player the Pistons should use as the model for the franchise. He's only 30 and has shown leadership qualities this season. If the Pistons want to build around a player, this is the friggin' guy. Despite the slow-it-down, unflashy offensive game, he does the little things that help a team win. It's an intangible quality. Unless Dumars is offered an All-star or lottery pick in return, Dumars should...
Verdict - Keep him.

Rodney Stuckey - Expiring contract - restricted free agent. The Pistons could match any offer in the offseason. Should they? The kid improved his jump shot. He plays solid defense. He's an excellent free throw shooter. He's a good ballhandler, and he attacks the rim willingly. Unfortunately, he can't finish. As a point guard, he lacks the ability to make those around him better. He doesn't have that innate ability to see plays developing. As a shooting guard, his skills are a better fit. Yet, this is a team with already too many 2-guards. And unlike Tay, he doesn't do the little things that help a team win. He never gets that key shot or key steal or block. If the Pistons let him go, I wouldn't be surprised to see him blossom into a 20pt/game player. With Detroit, the circus atmosphere and coaching carousel hindered his development. He needs a change of scenery as much as anyone.
Verdict - Trade him.

Tracy McGrady - Expiring contract - free agent. Only Jerebko, Summers, and White make less money than T-Mac. To say he's a tradeable commodity is an understatement. The former scoring champion's rebirth has gone exactly according to plan. He's stayed healthy and showed flashes of greatness. He certainly won't be pouring in 30/night anymore, but he's reborn as a point guard. His high basketball IQ and passing ability in effect outted Stuckey as a sub-par 1-guard. I wouldn't hate for the Pistons to keep him around, but this team doesn't have that luxury. My guess is the Pistons could land a late 1st rounder for T-Mac.
Verdict - Trade him.

Subs:
Ben Gordon - Under contract for 3 more seasons for $37M. Ouch. No player has disappointed the organization more than Ben Gordon. Little Ben can complain (which he hasn't) about a lack of a defined role. He's shifted around from bench player to starter and back to the bench throughout the past two seasons. He's never found a groove. Yet, he's had ample opportunities to seize the starting spot, and he's never found the consistent shooting rhythm he displayed in Chicago. He's a dreadful fit in Detroit. He's lost his mojo. And the Pistons can't get rid of him quick enough. I'd say he has an untradeable contract, but the Raptors found a way to unload an equally bad contract in Hedo Turkoglu. And the Wizards unloaded an even worse contract in Gilbert Arenas. So it's possible. My guess is that other GMs in the league still believe Gordon has value, but Dumars will have to work hard to find a taker. Don't expect anything in return.
Verdict - Trade him, dear God, trade him.

Charlie Villanueva - Under contract for 3 more seasons for $24M. He's carried the inconsistency tag around his entire career, and this season is no different. He started the season on fire, and there were rumblings of a potential 6th Man of the Year award. Then Kuester opted to move him into the starting lineup, and CV's numbers plummeted. He hasn't scored 20 points since December. For a guy who has the green light to shoot anywhere, anytime, that's quite sad. Despite his failings as a player, there's something about his personality that I like. I think he's, in general, a good dude. Unlike Ben Gordon, I don't think he has the respect of GMs around the league, so my guess is he'd be harder to unload. If I were Joe, I'd certainly listen to offers, but I can't imagine any would come. At $8M/year, his contract isn't horrible, IF he finds his groove again as the 6th man. CV embraces that role. The next coach should not tinker with it.
Verdict - Keep him (no other choice).

Will Bynum - Under contract for 2 more seasons for $7M. Like all the bench players, Bynum's minutes have been all over the map. One game he'll get a DNP-CD, and the next he'll come on in the 4th quarter and steal the win (see Phoenix, 1/22). Like CV, he's inconsistent, but I think his inconsistency is more attributable to injuries. He's healthy again, and the Pistons should exploit that. He's a perfect back-up point guard. He comes in against the subs and creates havoc. He can score, pass, and play decent defense against smallish guards. His salary is sound, and he seems to play every game with a chip on his shoulder. Perfect.
Verdict - Keep him.

Austin Daye - Under contract for $2M next season with a team option for $3M the following season. As I've discussed many times before, I believe this kid has a high ceiling as a scorer. He's the best pure shooter on the team. As a lanky 6'11 guard, he could cause major problems on both ends of the court. Like Greg Monroe, he's still learning the NBA game. He's far from polished. Someone like Stuckey was more NBA-ready. Yet, with such a high ceiling, the Pistons aren't in a position to let someone like Daye walk. They've got to groom him as much as possible. If the team keeps Prince, which I advocate, that may hinder Daye's minutes. But I believe he's just as valuable as a 2-guard. The minutes should be there for him to develop as a 20-minute/night bench player the next two seasons.
Verdict - Keep him.

Rip Hamilton - Under contract for two more seasons for $25M. I believe he's got skills, but apparently nobody wants him. His contract isn't nearly as bad as we're led to believe. For the right team, he could come in and light up the scoreboard. I'm pretty surprised Dumars hasn't found a willing taker. If Dumars miraculously deals Ben Gordon and Rodney Stuckey and then fires John Kuester, I suppose it's possible Hamilton could make a grand return to the Pistons. And I think most fans would welcome him back. The chances of all that happening, though, is remote. His time as a Piston is likely over. Like Stuckey, he desperately needs a change of scenery.
Verdict - Trade him.

Jason Maxiell - Under contract for two more seasons for $10M. This is one of Joe D's worst contracts. Maxiell is certainly not worth $5M per season, and I can't believe Dumars will find a GM that will ever take this contract off his hands. Maxiell's play has diminished greatly this season, after numerous opportunities to seize the starting role. He's just not a reliable NBA player. If at all possible, the Pistons should consider buying out his contract and opening a roster spot for somebody new.
Verdict - Buy-out contract and release.

Chris Wilcox - Expiring contract - free agent. I've actually enjoyed watching Wilcox play this season. He's wiry and athletic and not a horrible offensive player. On the defensive end, he's shown a willingness to get in people's faces. Unfortunately, he's just not that good. There's a reason that opposing big men regularly tear the Pistons apart (see Aldridge, Lamarcus and Smith, Josh), and Wilcox is part of that problem (so is Greg Monroe unfortunately). The Pistons would be best served to trade his contract or simply let him walk in the offseason. My guess is that, if Dumars is able to find a taker for Hamilton or Gordon, Wilcox will be the throw-in.
Verdict - Trade him, or, failing that, let him walk.

Jonas Jerebko - Expiring contract - restricted free agent. Like Tay, Jerebko's value can't be quantified. He seems to have that innate ability to be in the right place at the right time. For a guy with unwieldy skills, he's a winner, much like Dennis Rodman. He's not quite as wiry as Rodman (not many are), but he's got a far superior shot. Jerebko could develop into a dominant rebounder and decent scorer. He won't be an All-star, but he could be a reliable starter on a good team. It's a shame he lost this entire season. The Pistons are low on big men, and can't afford to let this kid walk. My guess is that, despite his injury, other teams will definitely make inquiries this offseason.
Verdict - Re-sign him.

John Kuester - He's effectively implemented gameplans against Carmelo and Dwight Howard. Yet, his inability to handle personnel is his undoing. Too much water under the bridge.
Verdict - Fire him.

In a perfect world, the Pistons would return Big Ben, Monroe, Tay, CV, Bynum, Daye, and Jerebko. Unloading the other players would free up $28M (not counting Maxiell's proposed buy-out). Next year's team would be extremely thin. They'd need to find a point guard, but they may get by with Big Ben as the center for one final season. It would be another lottery-bound team, but at least they'd be on the right path.

2 comments:

  1. I admire your ability to passionately stick with a team through thick and thin.

    My sports viewing is kind of limited to once a week (except during playoffs), so I simply can't put the energy towards watching the Pistons this year. If that makes me a fair weather fan, then so be it.

    Unfortunately for The Pistons, due to their two extended world championship runs, Detroit fans are not going to get too excited over mediocrity (like they do with the Tigers or Lions).

    And this team just doesn't seem to have any sort of hope or plan in place to get back to the mountaintop. Are any pieces really in place?

    Can you win a championship with Stuckey and Monroe as your top two players? Of course not. Can you win a championship with them as your #5 and #6? I'm not sure. And where will the Pistons get these other players?

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  2. I guess I'd categorize my Piston fandom as more addiction than anything else. At times I don't want to watch, but I can't help myself from peeking at the score. My wife has just accepted it.

    I was more successful at avoiding the Lions during the Millen years. I could go the entire day without watching or checking the score. My Dad was the lone enabler. He'd watch/DVR the games religiously.

    Regarding your comment about the Pistons roster/rebuilding, I wholeheartedly agree. If Stuckey and Monroe are the two building blocks, the team is in sad shape. As the Pistons rebuild, I think Joe D should consult with this prospect rating tool:
    http://www.hockeysfuture.com/playerprojections/

    For what it's worth, I see Stuckey as a 7 and Monroe as a 7 or 8. I think this warrants a new blog post...

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