The Art of Player Potential

Just try to gauge my potential
As a continuation of yesterday's post breaking down the Piston's roster, I'm going to delve a bit deeper into player potential. This was inspired by Cliff's Notes comment yesterday:

Can you win a championship with Stuckey and Monroe as your top two players? Of course not. Can you win a championship with them as your #5 and #6?

I suppose the bigger question is "How do you build a champion team?" There's of course no answer to this question. It's impossible to tell which players will evolve into an All-star or, God help us, a Hall of Famer. Occasionally, there will be a can't-miss prospect like Lebron James. Yet, I should also point out that Greg Oden was considered a rare "every ten years" dominant talent as well. It's no exact science, but, heck, even science isn't an exact science.

A few years ago, I happened upon this method for classifying hockey prospects. In general, it's a system that assigns each prospect a number from 1 through 10. A player who receives a 1 is considered a player who, at best, will pan out into a career minor leaguer. A 10 is a "Generational Talent" aka Wayne Gretzky.

What I like about this system is that it attempts to measure potential or, as I often call it, a player's ceiling. Often, of course, the system is way off. I remember when Johan Franzen was first signed to the Wings. After playing his entire career in Sweden, the North American analysts did not have much to go on. They looked at his bulky frame, methodical skating, and solid defensive-awareness and thought - 3rd line grinder and assigned him a "6". What the scouts didn't see was an amazingly hard and accurate shot that would propel Franzen into an elite NHL scorer. Combine that with his bulky frame and defensive-awareness and you've got a potential All-star (8).

More often than not, though, the scouts are fairly accurate. Coming into the season, the top Red Wing prospect was Jakub Kindl at an 8.0. Yet, they also assigned him a "C" - which meant he "ultimately may not reach his potential". No Red Wing prospects received the higher grade of A (potential guaranteed) or B (should reach potential). A player like Darren Helm would be a good example of a 6-A. The 6 isn't a terribly high number, but, with his speed and tenacity, he's all-but-guaranteed to reach his potential as an NHL 3rd liner. In many respects, he's more valuable than someone like Petr Klima, who I would've classified as a 9-D. Incredible potential - almost no chance of reaching it due to attitude/brain-farts.

In basketball, it's a bit more tricky. Teams are far more reliant upon a 9 or 10 level talent. The elite players can carry a team to greatness, while partnered with 5s and 6s. The 2004 Pistons aside, teams with 7s and 8s usually don't fare as well. So, every NBA GM is looking for the 9. That's why we've got big time busts like Darko and Kwame Brown. Players with their size and athletic ability do not come around often. They've got no ceiling. So GMs take a chance and draft them ahead of more reliable picks like Wade or Shane Battier.

On the Pistons roster, the young prospects are a mixed bunch. Do they have any 9s? Let's take a look:

Greg Monroe - Fluid player with good instincts. He's found success in his rookie season due to solid rebounding and opportunistic scoring. As a starter, he's a double-double threat every game, despite never being the focal point on offense. The problem with his game is explosion. As a low-post player, he doesn't have the legs to burst toward the net like Carlos Boozer or Dwight Howard. He's a more cerebral player like Rasheed, who looks to pass first. Yesterday I compared Monroe to Lamarcus Aldridge (an 8). That's his ceiling, though it's more likely he'll stay just a role player. Without the physical tools, he won't be a 9. But he's shown vast improvement in his short rookie campaign and proved many doubters wrong.

Potential - 8-C

Austin Daye - He's a project. In many ways, he's the Petr Klima of the Pistons. Daye is blessed with incredible finesse and ball-skills for a 6'11 player. His instincts for scoring are incredible, and he has the smoothest release on the team. Yet, he's still raw and prone to mistakes. He doesn't have a high basketball IQ - meaning he doesn't see plays forming. He's often caught out-of-position, reacting too late. Regardless, he's blossomed into a decent bench player this season, and he's hit a handful of clutch shots already in his young career. Not rattled in crunch time. For player comparisons, I've often cited Danny Granger (an 8). Granger and Daye have incredible range and shooting prowess. I'd love to see Daye get to his level, but hope rarely translates to reality.

Potential - 8-C

Jonas Jerebko - Gotta give the Pistons' brass credit for unearthing this dude in the 2nd round. Who knew a Swedish baller could not only make an NBA team but actually start? Based on his rookie season, Jerebko was awkward on offense but a willing and capable defender. He patterned his game after Ben Wallace, and his wiry frame and athleticism often reminded me of Rodman. Late in the season, he became a semi-reliable 3pt threat. His release is clunky, so I doubt he'll ever shoot a high percentage.

Potential - 7-B

Will Bynum - Spark plug. He's like Vinnie Johnson when he enters the game. No player on the team attacks the rim with as much passion and skill. Unlike Stuckey, Bynum finishes at a better clip, though his outside shot is a work-in-progress. As a point guard, Bynum is shoot-first, though he's a capable passer as well. His ceiling is quite high due to his drive, athleticism, and knack for finishing. Yet, his small size and inconsistency have held him back. In a perfect world, he's Tony Parker, Steve Nash. Not likely at all... but there's a chance. And that's what this exercise is all about.

Potential - 8-D

Rodney Stuckey - He's a bit on on the old side for this exercise. He's been in the league a while, and I think we all know what he's capable of. I don't think he'll ever be an All-star. His best talent is scoring, but he doesn't do enough of it to warrant much acclaim. He's an okay player, who has the potential to be a good player. For the remainder of his career, I don't expect him to move too far up or too far down the charts.

Potential - 7-B

Conclusion - The Pistons don't have any 9s. They don't even have a 9-D (someone like the post-injury Greg Oden). They do have a handful of 8s, but the chances of Daye, Monroe, or Bynum panning out are quite low. The team would be fortunate for just one to make it, but it would take all three for them to become a real contender. For the 2004-05 seasons, the entire starting five were 8s, with Ben Wallace getting a 9 when this guy came out.

So, while I talk about rebuilding, it's ultimately just a pipe dream. The roster just doesn't have the talent or potential.