Swing Players

We all know what Verlander can do. Same with Cabrera. Even if they don't perform up to their All-World ability, they'll still be pretty darn good. Same with Victor Martinez and Papa Grande. They may not be All-World, but they've still proven to be top-shelf players.

We also know what to expect from guys like Porcello, Penny, Austin Jackson, and Raburn. Porcello's gonna get rocked on occasion but also throw a 1-hit gem to keep the naysayers at bay. Penny's gonna give up 3+ pretty much every time. The question is whether that's over 3 innings or 7. As for Jackson and Raburn, they'll strike out most times, but, every now and then, they'll deliver a key hit.

For most of the Tigers, we know what they can and cannot deliver. Yet, there's a handful of players that remain unknowns. Their potential is still undetermined. Perhaps their ceiling is high. Perhaps they're just on a hot/cold streak. These are the swing players. They're like the state of Ohio or Florida in an election year. Their play determines the outcome.

Who qualifies?

Brennan Boesch, Jhonny Peralta, Alex Avila. Peralta and Avila are in the midst of their first All-star seasons. Boesch is cementing his status as an everyday player. Last season, we all know he delivered strong enough numbers to warrant an All-star spot, but then he slumped drastically in the second half. This season, his average waffled between .270 and .290. He goes through hot and cold streaks, but nothing compared to his dreadful second half of 2010. One worrisome thing about Boesch is that his batting average with 2 outs and runners-in-scoring-position is .180. Yet, I suppose that's a sign of stats not telling the whole story. He almost single-handedly won this game as the rain poured down. It was such an impressive at-bat that Papa Nofrownmotown declared, "If they trade Boesch, I'm through with the Tigers!"

The kid's a fan favorite. He came to Detroit with little fanfare and has delivered. Much hope rests on his shoulders. Avila, though, takes on even more responsibility. Avila is the only catcher in the clubhouse. Victor Martinez, still smarting from a knee-injury, can't catch. Avila's caught 15 games in a row. And yet he continues to hit at his All-star pace. Currently, he's at .302, with 14 HR, and 59 RBI. This incredible season is on the heels of a 2010 campaign in which he hit .228, with 7 HR, and just 31 RBIs. Incredibly, his On-base-plus-slugging (OPS) is up to .911 from .656. Avila's hit rockets at the plate, and he'll also block the plate like a cliff breaking-up waves:

And Peralta... who saw this coming? Last season, the Tigers acquired Jhonny for Giovanni Soto. Nothing against Soto, but the kid's still battling in rookie ball. Peralta's hitting .313 with 18 HR and 65 RBIs. He made his first All-star team. He's still just 29 years old and in his prime. With all these cats, especially Avila and Peralta, are these seasons just aberrations? Or are they a sign of things to come? It's too soon to tell.

One thing is for sure, these kids came to play in 2011. Without them, the Tigers would struggle. The Tigers do not have much depth, so they need consistent production from these three to make noise in the pennant race. Cross your fingers and hope the happy days continue.

Winter's a comin'

In a handful of months, baseball's big GMs will gather for the Winter Meetings. This is where the major trades and free agent signings begin in earnest. The Tigers, with $55M coming off the books, figure to be big players.

While it would be absolutely sweet for the Tigers to make a splash signing Carl Crawford, I have a strange feeling that they should focus more of their energy internally. Admittedly, The Tigers of '06 proved that free agents and trades can lead a team to greatness. The Gambler, Maggs, Polanco, Todd Jones, Guillen, and Pudge were the cornerstones that season, and they were all acquired via trade or free agency.

Yet, the Tigers quickly fizzled out. In the five years since, they've yet to reach the playoffs, let alone make another World Series. Looking at the teams with consistent success - Yankees, Red Sox, Twins, Phillies - they've built their core from the draft and later added complimentary pieces through free agency/trades. The Yankees are the best example. While they're known as free-wheeling big-spenders, the true backbone of their team for the past 16 seasons (in which they've made the playoffs an astounding 15 times) was Jeter, Posada, Pettitte, Rivera, and, most recently, Cano. All those players were drafted and developed by the Yanks. They've had a handful of free agent sluggers rotate into the lineup, with varying results (Giambi, Matsui, Williams, etc), but the clutch performers more often than not were the Yankee draft picks. The teams' Achilles heel during his run is starting pitching. They've thrown big money at an army of players who typically come up short. Carl Pavano, Mike Mussina, Randy Johnson, and even Jeff Weaver all seemed primed for greatness in pinstripes, but they underperformed.

The Yankee fans would be the first to say that free agency is a gamble. The reliable players - the players that make a team great - are the draft picks. And, for the record, I realize that most Latin players are technically signed as free agents. Since they're not eligible for the draft, teams sign them at 17 and 18 years of age. They've got to be developed under the farm system, so I lump them in with the draft picks.

This brings me back to the Tigers. They had a chance this season to get a look at most of their top farm prospects. The results were better than I would've expected. They've got an excellent-fielding shortstop in Danny Worth. Will Rhymes showed a penchant for Polanco-like skill with both the bat and glove. And Casper Wells and Brennen Boesch displayed absurd power during stretches of the season. As a result, I find Wells and Boesch the most intriguing.

The Tigers need one of them to make the leap to the next level. It's not out of the realm of possibility for Wells or Boesch to hit 20HR and 90RBI next season. A player with those numbers could command $10M on the free agent market. Yet, Wells and Boesch still make under $1M. That, folks, is value and would free up cash for other glaring needs. The Tigers have many. The Tigers' management should do all they can to get those two players ready for the bigs in 2011. Boesch, who spent the entire second half in a slump, is the trickier proposition. He hit an All-Star pace for two months. Then he seemingly lost his confidence or perhaps opposing pitchers figured him out. Either way, I begged for the Tigers to send him down to Toledo - just to get him out of the spotlight. He stayed up with the big club and struggled to the very end. An article on MLive yesterday described Boesch's offseason regimen. Boesch said he'd "leave no stone unturned." This is exactly the type of overthinking that I was worried about. I'd vastly prefer Boesch to spend a month in Ibiza, forgetting about baseball. I suppose we'll see if his strategy works next April.

The curious case of Brennen Boesch

It's no secret the Tigers have struggled since the All-star break. They took 2 of 3 against the White Sox over the weekend, but it's just too little, too late. The hole they dug with their 7-22 record out of the second half gate is simply too big. No player better represents that struggle than 1st half wunderkind - Brennen Boesch.

Back in those wondrous mid-July days, Tiger fans lamented Boesch's exclusion from the All-star team. His stats were that grand, and Boesch had a legitimate gripe. I was quietly relieved, thinking Boesch would benefit more from the 3 days off. I had seen prior Tiger All-stars completely unravel after the All-star break, as recently as last year's Brandon Inge. (In hindsight, I'm simply astounded Inge actually made an All-star team) I figured Boesch's offensive surge would continue in the 2nd half since he had extra motivation with the All-star snub. Unfortunately, the opposite happened.

On July 9th, I wrote: Tiger fans keep waiting for the other shoe to drop, for Brennen to hit an Inge-like dryspell. So far, he's stayed hot. He's hitting .341, with 12 HR, and 47 RBI.

The Inge-like dryspell hit... and hit hard. His 2nd half numbers are abysmal - .121 BA, 2 HR, 6 RBI. By contrast, another favorite whipping boy, Ryan Raburn, hit .278, 4 HR, 16 RBI in that span. What the heck went wrong? One glance at yesterday's box score might provide one clue. He was hitless in 3 at-bats and only saw 4 pitches. Perhaps to rekindle his earlier glory, Boesch reverted to clobbering that opening pitch. Obviously, teams learned his tendency to bomb that opening pitch and adapted. The previous game, Boesch had 4 at-bats, all strikeouts. He seems to be a step behind. What he needs to do... and what the hitting coaches better be telling him... is that he needs to always be patient. Wait for your pitch. And then clobber it. If you miss it, fine. But the hitting philosophy in the major leagues ain't much different than Little League. If kids swing at pitches in the dirt, they're going to strike out. If they're patient and wait for a pitch over the plate, their chance of success increases dramatically.

That's the Cabrera philosophy. You can tell he waits and waits at the plate. I've never seen such a fantastic 2-strike hitter. Often, he'll fall behind 0-2 and foul off pitch after pitch without ever seeing a ball. He simply protects the plate and waits for the pitcher to throw one where he's expecting it. Now, Cabrera is a one-in-a-million talent, and we can't expect Boesch to mimic his numbers. But he should mimic his approach. I've seen Boesch exhibit patience at the plate. That should be his approach 100% of the time.

He may not get the power back this season. Hitting streaks are simply too fickle. But we've all seen his potential, and the kid should be groomed for a long career as a Tiger. Let this slump be a learning experience as opposed to a testament to his deficiencies. His ability to work out of a slump will be as important a skill as hitting a 3-run bomb. But he needs his help, and that's why the team has coaches. I just hope they're doing their job.

Now back to our regularly scheduled program

With the World Cup simmering down, it's time to return our focus to Detroit sports. A lot has happened. The Pistons drafted a big man. The Tigers beat up some bad teams, lost to some good ones, and then lost Zumaya indefinitely. The Red Wings signed Eaves. Okay, maybe it wasn't all big news. But not every sports story warrants a 1-hour ESPN special titled "The Decision."

I'll start with the Tigers. They just wrapped up a three game sweep of the Orioles. Other than the middle game, the Tigers were fairly dominant. That middle game was quite sad, with the Orioles doing everything right... except winning the game. They reminded me of the Tiger teams of a decade ago. The Tigers find themselves in first place with a series against Minnesota about to start tonight. This month, the Tigers feasted on last-place teams. When they went on the road to face decent competition, they went a meager 3-6. So, I still don't think they're a playoff team, but they may squeak in if Minnesota doesn't heat up in August (big IF).

With that said, I've enjoyed this Tiger season much more than the past few. The reason is relatively simple - they've got hope for the future. We all thought they'd be screwed without Granderson. I know I fell prey to the Granderson love. Yet, Dombrowski was wiser than us all by acquiring younger and cheaper parts. Austin Jackson filled the Granderson hole quite well in centerfield, and he's maintained a .300 average all season (while Curtis is below .250 but hits with power). Scherzer also settled into a solid arm in the rotation since his stint in Toledo. But the biggest reason is Brennen Boesch. The kid is exactly what the doctor ordered. The Tigers have been looking for a power hitting lefty since Darrell Evans retired. In recent years, they've trotted out a parade of lefties... hoping one would stick... Aubrey Huff, Jeff Larish, Sean Casey, Matt Stairs, Carlos Pena, Eric Munson, etc. It seemed every other team in the Central had their left-handed bomber - Morneau, Jim Thome, Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner, Carlos Quentin - they all had their time feasting on Detroit pitching. But the big lefty bat continued to elude the Tigers. Until 2010. Like Jenny McCarthy on Singled Out, Brennen Boesch made an immediate impression. Tiger fans keep waiting for the other shoe to drop, for Brennen to hit an Inge-like dryspell. So far, he's stayed hot. He's hitting .341, with 12 HR, and 47 RBI.

Apparently, he was the 25th-rated Tiger prospect entering this season. I found this scouting report from the end of last season, that didn't even list Boesch among the top 30! Yet, if I look at his stats from Double-A Erie last season, it makes no sense why he was ignored. While he didn't have a killer batting average (.275), he did hit 28 HRs with an impressive 93 RBIs. Those are solid numbers in any league. In many ways, Boesch is just continuing what he did last year in Erie. He started this year at Toledo, and, in 15 games, hit .379 with 17 RBIs. So, it's more a case of the media just missing the boat on this kid than Boesch actually doing anything out of the ordinary. The stats and power numbers were there for anyone to see.

We should also be thankful that Boesch didn't make the All-star team. The kid has never played 162 games and could use the break. Besides, we've all seen how an All-star appearance can curtail an otherwise excellent season (thank you, Brandon Inge).