Ex-Tigers

Yesterday was a tough day for Miguel Cabrera. And Tiger fans.

Not only did the Tiger representatives go a combined 0-5... and not only did the American League lose, but the parade of former Tigers at the All-star game was an ugly gut-punch.

Now, I'm a Dombrowski apologist. I remember the days before he arrived. The Tigers were mired in obscurity, not unlike the Lions. True, Dombrowski sacrificed the entire '03 season, trotting out a Triple-A squad at Comerica. But at least that dreadful '03 season allowed the opportunity to draft Verlander. Slowly, Dombrowski did bring the Tigers back to respectability. He overpaid to bring in Pudge and Maggs - two guys key to the rebound and the incredible run in '06. He also convinced Ilitch to open his checkbook to sign young draft picks that were too pricey for most other teams (Verlander, Porcello, Perry, Jacob Turner). He traded Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller for the best hitter in the American League. Yet, that trade also brought in Dontrelle Willis and his train-wreck of a Tiger career.

When most folks fault Dombrowski, it's usually due to his trade record. Dombrowski made a brilliant trade in '05 bringing Polanco to the Tigers for Uggie Urbina. Urbina finished the season with the Phillies and then found himself in a Venezuelan prison after an attempted murder. But Polanco flourished with Detroit. He was a premier 2nd baseman. Polanco wanted to stay with the Tigers. Yet, Dombrowski, inexplicably, opted not to sign Polanco after his Gold Glove '09 season. Does DD regret that decision? I would venture he does every time he hears the phrase: "Starting at second base... Ryan Raburn."

One of many painful images

Placido Polanco was perhaps the most painful player for Tiger fans to watch in the All-star game. Next on that list? Jair Jurrjens.

Now Jurrjens is usually Exhibit A in the case against Dombrowski. For many Tiger fans, Jurrjens may be the toughest player to watch succeed elsewhere. Yet, for me, I didn't loathe the Jurrjens trade at the time. The Tigers called Jurrjens mid-season in '07. He started 7 games, going 3-1 with a 4.70 ERA. That's not a sparkling ERA by any means, but he did show potential with a 1.1 WHIP. Atlanta thought enough of Jurrjens to take him in exchange for Edgar Renteria. That season, Renteria was one of the best hitters in all of baseball with a .332 average. The Tigers needed a short-stop to replace Carlos Guillen who's body was breaking down and no longer had short-stop range. Acquiring the professional hitter Renteria for Jurrjens seemed a no-brainer.

Renteria flamed out as a Tiger, hitting just .270, while Jurrjens rewarded the Braves with progressively awesome stuff, leading to his first All-star appearance this season. He's currently 12-3 with a 1.87 ERA. Those numbers surpass even Verlander. Once again, the Tigers gift the Braves an ace.

A lesser-but-still-painful player to watch in the All-star game was Curtis Granderson. The only consolation to the Granderson trade is that the jury is still out. Last season, most Tiger fans were content, as Granderson underperformed and Austin Jackson finished 2nd in rookie-of-the-year voting. Phil Coke, a throw-in for the deal, also seemed to have a bright future. Everything flip-flopped this year. Granderson put up MVP-level numbers, with 25 HR, 63 RBI, 15 SB. Austin Jackson spent most of the first half hovering around .200, and Phil Coke was demoted to the bullpen after a failed attempt at starting. At least the Tigers saved money. Granderson's take-home is 2,954% larger than Jackson's.

Unfortunately, we're still not done.

Another ex-Tiger in the All-star game -- and perhaps the biggest surprise of them all -- was Matt Joyce. Some Tiger fans fell in love with Joyce's big bat in the Summer of '08. Joyce stepped into the spot vacated by Greg Monroe and provided decent pop (12 HR) for a part-time player/rookie. And he was a lefty! But Dombrowski had other plans. He parlayed Matt Joyce - a moderately successful rookie - into a certified big league starting pitcher, Edwin Jackson. It seemed a brilliant stroke, and, in many ways, it was. Starters are tough to come by. Tougher, at least, than a power-hitting outfielder. Jackson dominated as a Tiger, making his first All-star team, but faded surprisingly late in the season. Jackson's issues in August and September of '09 were amplified due to the pressure-cooker of a pennant race. He simply didn't deliver in crunch time. Jackson was sent packing for Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth. The jury is still out on Scherzer. He's shown flashes of absolutely dominant stuff. Yet, he's also been lit up like a Christmas tree. Which Scherzer is the real Scherzer?

Matt Joyce, meanwhile, started slowly with the Marlins. This year, he finally put it together, hitting .290 with 12 HRs. Those aren't stellar All-star numbers, but he made it nonetheless. I admit, I was pretty surprised to see him walk up to the plate last night. It seemed a bit bizarre -- Matt Joyce, American League All-star. But he did well and notched a hit. He kills the Tigers every chance he gets, further angering Tiger fans. Yet, I bet every GM in the league trades Matt Joyce for Max Scherzer straight-up. Starters are that valuable. Even inconsistent ones.

The Rotation - After 40 games

Who knew?
Back in February, I wrote a fairly in depth review of the Tigers' proposed rotation. I had serious concerns. Now that the team is 40 games into the season, let's see how my predictions fared.

Justin Verlander

What I said in February: Nothing. I conceded he was set as the #1.

Result so far: He started incredibly slow but since settled into his role as the ace. The past few games he's been Cy Young worthy, lowering his ERA to an impressive 3.43, with a 1.1 WHIP. And he's 5-2 to boot.

Rick Porcello

What I said in February: "Porcello has only one season under his belt. Nevertheless, he showed enough last year to prove he's mentally tough and has All-star potential."

Result so far: He may be an All-star someday, but it won't be this year. The kid has been rocked. And hard. And often. Perhaps the only good thing about his year so far is that he's kept his pitch count down... because he rarely gets out of the 6th inning. In his 8 starts, he's had just 2 quality starts. His ERA is a robust 5.9, with an alarming 1.68 WHIP. He had a great win against the Yankees, but he followed that by getting pummeled by the White Sox. I fear he's dangerously close to Toledo.

Max Scherzer

What I said in February: "He's pitched a grand total of 56 more innings than 21 year-old Porcello... I do like his potential, but locking him as the #3 is a bit of a stretch."

Result so far: If I was dead-wrong about Porcello, I at least called this one. Scherzer is, by far, the biggest disappointment of the season. His year has gone in direct contrast to Verlander. Scherzer started great and then quickly unraveled. He's now down in Toledo hoping to find his groove. He may have a difficult time getting back. I'm sure the current senior roster will need some Mud Hen assistance, whether through poor performance or injury, but I think Scherzer is currently pretty low on the pecking order.

Jeremy Bonderman

What I said in February: "An even bigger gamble (than Scherzer)... Bonderman will spend more time on the DL."

Result so far: He's stayed off the DL. That's good. He's also pitched competently as a #4 starter, with a respectable 4.43 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. He's had 4 quality starts and really only got rocked one time. So you gotta be happy. The problem is that he reminds me of ol' Nate Robertson, like he's living on borrowed time. Bondo's velocity is way down from his early years of throwing upper-90s. Strangely, his velocity slowed even prior to this shoulder injury, but it's down even more this year. To contrast that, he's added a change-up to his fastball/slider arsenal. Yesterday, he had the Athletics all off-balance and looked good. I'm still not sold on him, though. He's reinventing himself as a crafty, location-first pitcher, and that may take more than a year of adjustment.

The D-Train

What I said in February: "..." Nothing. I didn't even list him as one of the four candidates for the final spot in the rotation! I had zero faith this dude would make the team.

Result so far: He doesn't have eye-popping stats by any means, but, considering what he showed the past two seasons, he's pitched remarkably well. He's even managed 3 quality starts, including six shutout innings against the dreaded Twins. Can he keep it up? Well, that's the million dollar question. Every fan in Detroit is waiting for the other shoe to drop. For now, though, it's fun riding the D-Train. He's a super-nice guy, extremely amicable. It would be great to see him turn his career around as a Tiger. Which brings me to my next question... objectively speaking, what would it take for Dontrelle to earn another contract from the Tigers? Dombrowski has sunk $30million into this cat with practically zero return. Even if Dontrelle had a Cy Young-caliber season, would he warrant a new Tiger contract? I doubt it.

Conclusion

My predictions were, at best, pessimistic, and, at worst, downright wrong. I suppose that's the unpredictable nature of baseball. With Scherzer down at Toledo, Galarraga has a chance to cement that 3rd spot in the rotation. I have more confidence in Armando than either Bondo or D-Train. He pitched five solid innings in his one start thus far. If he keeps it up, the Tigers might actually keep pace with Minnesota in the Central.

With a whimper

I had so thoroughly moved on after the Game 3 loss that the Wings official bowing out on Sunday morning was no big blow. Perhaps it's the pessimist in me, but the actual end of the series game is rarely the most painful. Whether it's the Pistons losing to the Celtics or the Tigers losing to the Twins, the writing is usually on the wall. When the Wings couldn't hold on to that two-goal lead in Game 3, the writing was on the wall.

With Game 5, I was just happy San Jose won the game on a good goal. It was set up by a faceoff win, some hard work on the boards, and a great pass (again) by Thornton to Marleau. The Wings are a bit sour that the goal occurred on the heels of an egregious non-call to a hit-to-the-head on Franzen. Yet, after this series, how can anyone be surprised by inconsistent officiating? The Sharks won the game by outplaying the Wings for longer stretches. In the clutch, one team stood tall. Every hockey fan knows the Sharks are perennial playoff under-performers so I'm happy for them and their fans. They've had a great team for many years now, and perhaps it's finally their turn. Other than those embarrassing dives in Games 1 and 2, I've got no qualms with this squad. They're incredibly disciplined, and the coach is a Babcock mentee.

The Sharks will have their hands full with either the Hawks or Canucks. Both teams, in my humble opinion, are stronger playoff contenders. But only on paper. Besides, I don't care who wins as long as the Western Conference champ beats the Penguins.

As for the Wings, they get a few extra weeks off this offseason. This grueling season may serve to recharge the batteries for Datsyuk and Z. It may also signal the departure for Nick, who has yet to make his decision. My gut tells me he'll be back. But my gut also told me Holland would find a way to re-sign Hossa, so clearly the gut is about as good a guide as "Satipo" from Raiders of the Lost Ark.

The Wings already received some excellent news with the return of Jiri Hudler. So, buck-up, Wings fans. Hope remains.

Los Tigres

I wish I could say the same for Tiger starting pitching. It's now May 10, and the Tigers have two reliable starting pitchers. One of those reliable starters is a guy who spent the past two years in Single-A and on the DL with an anxiety disorder. With dreadful starting pitchers and the worst defense in the American league (28 errors), the team has relied solely on the heroic bat of Miguel Cabrera and a shockingly stingy bullpen.

Baseball sage Pat Caputo of 97.1 likes to say that "water finds its level." That may apply to a guy like Verlander who opened the season with an inflated ERA. Yet, Porcello and Scherzer, though, are both so young that we don't quite know what their "level" should be. With Bonderman, my guess is that we're seeing the real Jeremy Bonderman. He's a guy who's spent the majority of the past two years with a massive shoulder problem. He's lost 7-10 mph on his fastball and has become a one-pitch pitcher - slider. Scherzer has given up 21 earned runs, 27 hits, and 7 walks his past three starts. He averaged only four innings per start. That's alarming.

On the flip-side, Miguel Cabrera remains red-hot with a .370 average and an eye-popping 33 RBIs. This is a guy who simply could not knock runs in outside Comerica Park. Those days are long gone. Austin Jackson and Damon continue to get on base, and the team is near the top of the league in doubles. They can hit. But it's all for naught if the pitching gives up 16 hits/game.

There are options in triple-A. Galarraga took his demotion in stride. After a sizzling start, he's cooled off slightly but still sports a 3.8 ERA (1.1 WHIP). Alfredo Figaro also may be ready for another go-round, with a 2.5 ERA. Both pitchers are more MLB-ready than Bonderman right now. Scherzer's handful of good starts in early April warrant a long leash, but the big question mark is Porcello. He's walking around with a 1.8 WHIP and has exhibited none of the elite-level stuff from his rookie campaign. Obviously, it's too early to go alarmist on young Rick, but he may benefit from some time in Triple-A. If he's struggling consistently, the Tigers aren't doing him any favors by lining him up against Justin Morneau.

Lakeland

Center Field
Austin Jackson has done his best to help people forget about Curtis Granderson. The young center fielder is hitting .428 this spring, in 28 at-bats. No doubt, he's the most pleasant surprise. Of course, spring training numbers are about as relevant as "facebook friends". The team may only get one at-bat against an actual senior squad pitcher. And the best pitchers hardly unleash their top stuff. Verlander may spend the entire spring working on a 5th pitch - ya never know. So, while we, as fans, may dismiss Spring Training, the manager cannot. Leyland must figure out who will start at Center Field. He'll base his decision on the players' performance in Lakeland. The entire organization was hoping Jackson would seize the opportunity, and he has.

Second Base
While Jackson solidified his spot in the outfield, second base remains a mystery. This winter, the Tigers gave the position to Scott Sizemore who has a grand total of zero major league at-bats to his credit. After two mediocre seasons in '07 and '08, Sizemore worked his way up to AA and AAA last season, hitting .308 with 17 HR. It was evidence enough for Dombrowski to name him Polanco's heir - another bizarre offseason decision that alienated fans. While Sizemore hit well, he did commit 21 errors with a .966 fielding percentage. Last year, Polanco commited 2 errors with a .997 fielding percentage. To put Sizemore's numbers in perspective, his 21 errors would have ranked him last in the majors in 2009. His .966 fielding percentage? Also dead last.

Complicating matters is the fact that he also broke his ankle a few months ago. Sizemore is still experiencing soreness. The injury may force the Tigers to find a replacement. At their disposal is former second baseman Ryan Raburn, who posted equally inept numbers on defense. Yet, Raburn is a more polished offensive weapon. To his defensive credit, Raburn's rarely spent more than a season at the same position. As a full-time second baseman, Raburn's defensive numbers would still likely place at the bottom of the heap, so perhaps they could platoon him with Ramon Santiago. Santiago's a natural shortstop, but his glove is the best amongst this threesome.

Starting Pitchers
The Tigers breathed a sigh of relief yesterday as potential 3rd starter, Max Scherzer, finally threw a solid 4 innings of scoreless baseball. He dropped his Spring Training ERA to 11.37. Again, I don't want to harp on Spring Training stats, but for players like Scherzer, starting his first season in the AL, he needs a few solid innings for his confidence alone.

As for the rest of the pitching cavalcade, only one player has distinguished himself for the 4th and 5th final starting spots. I can't believe I'm typing this, but that player is Dontrelle Willis. Willis threw three innings, allowing one run yesterday. His Spring Training ERA is 1.29, though control continues to elude him. He's kept runners from crossing home, but walks remain a problem. Robertson has also fared somewhat well in spot starts, but Bonderman, Galarraga, and Bonine each sport a 10+ ERA. My guess is that Bonderman will have to exhibit exceptional ineptitude to work his way out of the 4th starting spot. Leyland and Dombrowski desperately want him to succeed and will give him every opportunity. That 5th spot will likely come down to the wire, with Willis the leading candidate. The Tigers would love to see some return on their investment.

The 5th starter? What about 3 and 4?!

There was an article on mLive with the headline Selecting a fifth starter biggest decision for Tigers' Jim Leyland to make at spring training. Did the Tigers suddenly become the talent-rich Red Sox?

Steve Kornacki wrote that piece, and it's clear that Kornacki is no Patrick Hayes or Justin Rogers. The Piston writers have an honest understanding of the teams strengths and weaknesses. With Kornacki, I feel like the words are bought and paid-for by Little Caesars.

We're to believe, according to the article, that the Tigers' pitching staff is set with four starters. I concede Verlander and Porcello as the clear #1 and #2. That statement alone is a bit of a stretch considering Porcello has only one season under his belt. Nevertheless, he showed enough last year to prove he's mentally tough and has All-star potential. So, I'll give him the #2 spot without much concern. New acquisition Max Scherzer is supposed to be #3. He's pitched a grand total of 56 more innings than 21 year-old Porcello. Only 16 of Scherzer's career 226 innings pitched were against American League competition. With that said, I do like Scherzer's potential, but locking him as the #3 is a bit of a stretch.

An even bigger gamble, though, is the supposed #4 starter - Jeremy Bonderman. Bondo last pitched a competent baseball game on June 1, 2008. That's over 18 months ago. To be honest, I've more faith in the 5th starter hopefuls - Armando Galarraga, Eddie Bonine, Alfredo Figaro and Nate Robertson. All four of those pitchers at the very least displayed a respectable arm at some point last season.

My prediction is that Bonderman will spend more time on the DL. Galarraga will slot into the #4 spot, and Bonine will beat the remainder of the competition for the 5th spot. Despite his hefty salary, the Tigers will have no recourse but to release Robertson. Figaro will spend another year in the minors.

Like last season, the Tigers enter spring training with a ton of question marks. Starting pitching is the tip of the iceberg. They have no center fielder, no left fielder, and no second baseman. On the offensive end, they lost their #1 and #2 batters. 5th starter the biggest decision? Puh-lease.

Sifting through the rubble

With the departures of Granderson, Edwin, Polanco, Thames, Rodney, and Lyon, who is left?

First, I should clarify that Rodney and Lyon can still re-sign with the team, though I find it doubtful. Dombrowski continues to scour the closer market. He's still eying oft-injured JJ Putz. It's clear that the 2010 Tigers will be vastly different.

For all his troubles against lefties, Granderson was still one of the better Tiger hitters. He slumped through most of 2009, but, for his career, hit .272 - not bad for a guy who also knocked in 30 home runs. He brought Gold Glove-level defense to center field, and his intangibles... well, they're off the charts. He is the type of guy you build the team around.

The Tigers will likely not miss him on the offensive end, but the gaping holes in centerfield, in the lockerroom, and at the ticket office will be tangible. Sifting through the message boards, I lost count of how many fans said they would not renew their season tickets. When March rolls around, there will be zero buzz about these Tigers. Attendance could drop 30-40%. With that said, all the angry fans (myself included) will be back on the bandwagon should the team start winning.

How likely is that with so many key cogs no longer in place? Let's take a look at who is coming to Detroit from the Granderson/Jackson trade:

Max Scherzer - 25 year old starting pitcher. Like all the players on this list, I've never seen this kid play, so I'll limit any personal editorial. Everything will be based on facts and stats. Scherzer was the D-backs 1st round pick (11th overall) three years ago. He's got a big right arm that reaches 95+. In his first full season of duty, Scherzer went 9-11 (for a 70-92 team) with a 4.12 ERA. Two more stats pop out with this kid: a fair 1.3 WHIP and an impressive 9.2 K/9innings. He seems to have the makings of a good-to-very-good starter. Why would Arizona let him go? They likely thought that Edwin Jackson is simply better. Edwin's stats from last season are far superior to Scherzer's, especially considering that Edwin was pitching in a high-stress pennant race. Edwin's numbers dropped off in the 2nd half, but he still finished with a superior ERA, WHIP, and win total. No doubt the Tigers are hoping Scherzer can make the jump that Edwin did this past season, but pitching in the American league will be significantly tougher.

Austin Jackson - 22 year old outfielder. Jackson hit .300 in AAA last season, with 24 steals and 123 strikeouts. He's a righty with speed, but that strikeout total is high for a contact hitter (4 HRs). Why would the Yankees let him go? Most top prospects make the jump to the majors directly from AA. The fact that Jackson spent an entire season in AAA shows that the Yankees felt he needed more seasoning. The Tigers are in desperate need of lefties. Giving up a lefty for a righty makes little sense. But the Tigers have no definite answer for center field right now. Jackson will likely battle Clete Thomas for that spot next season.

Phil Coke - 26 year old lefty reliever. Coke pitched 60 innings of middle relief for the Yankees, sporting a 4.50 ERA. He had 21 holds but 5 blown saves. Why would the Yankees let him go? Likely the blown saves and high ERA did not impress the pinstripes. Coke should have no trouble making the Tigers bullpen, though he and Bobby Seay fill the same role. Seay, with a high salary, might get sacrificed.

Dan Schlereth - 23 year old lefty reliever. Another former first round pick of the D-backs (26th overall). Last season, Schlereth ascended from AA to AAA to the majors. His combined numbers in the minors were 0.98 ERA, with an eye-popping 13K/9innings. With the senior team, Schlereth hit a wall - pitching 18 innings with a 5.9 ERA. Why would the Diamondbacks let him go? I honestly don't know why other than they weren't happy with his high ERA. Hard-throwing lefties are tough to find. My guess is Schlereth will start the season in the minors as a potential closer and see how he fares.

All these players seem like fair-to-good prospects. Trading known commodities (not mention All-stars) for prospects is always a huge gamble. The four players coming in are extremely cheap and can't become free agents for many years. The two players going out are more expensive and will command even more salary in the coming years. I figured Dombrowski and Ilitch would wait and take the hit for 2010. I was clearly wrong. They traded two key cogs to the team and received question marks in return. Will the Tigers be better next year? Extremely doubtful. The losses will pile up as the new faces take their major league lumps (if they even make the team).