The Rotation - After 40 games

Who knew?
Back in February, I wrote a fairly in depth review of the Tigers' proposed rotation. I had serious concerns. Now that the team is 40 games into the season, let's see how my predictions fared.

Justin Verlander

What I said in February: Nothing. I conceded he was set as the #1.

Result so far: He started incredibly slow but since settled into his role as the ace. The past few games he's been Cy Young worthy, lowering his ERA to an impressive 3.43, with a 1.1 WHIP. And he's 5-2 to boot.

Rick Porcello

What I said in February: "Porcello has only one season under his belt. Nevertheless, he showed enough last year to prove he's mentally tough and has All-star potential."

Result so far: He may be an All-star someday, but it won't be this year. The kid has been rocked. And hard. And often. Perhaps the only good thing about his year so far is that he's kept his pitch count down... because he rarely gets out of the 6th inning. In his 8 starts, he's had just 2 quality starts. His ERA is a robust 5.9, with an alarming 1.68 WHIP. He had a great win against the Yankees, but he followed that by getting pummeled by the White Sox. I fear he's dangerously close to Toledo.

Max Scherzer

What I said in February: "He's pitched a grand total of 56 more innings than 21 year-old Porcello... I do like his potential, but locking him as the #3 is a bit of a stretch."

Result so far: If I was dead-wrong about Porcello, I at least called this one. Scherzer is, by far, the biggest disappointment of the season. His year has gone in direct contrast to Verlander. Scherzer started great and then quickly unraveled. He's now down in Toledo hoping to find his groove. He may have a difficult time getting back. I'm sure the current senior roster will need some Mud Hen assistance, whether through poor performance or injury, but I think Scherzer is currently pretty low on the pecking order.

Jeremy Bonderman

What I said in February: "An even bigger gamble (than Scherzer)... Bonderman will spend more time on the DL."

Result so far: He's stayed off the DL. That's good. He's also pitched competently as a #4 starter, with a respectable 4.43 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. He's had 4 quality starts and really only got rocked one time. So you gotta be happy. The problem is that he reminds me of ol' Nate Robertson, like he's living on borrowed time. Bondo's velocity is way down from his early years of throwing upper-90s. Strangely, his velocity slowed even prior to this shoulder injury, but it's down even more this year. To contrast that, he's added a change-up to his fastball/slider arsenal. Yesterday, he had the Athletics all off-balance and looked good. I'm still not sold on him, though. He's reinventing himself as a crafty, location-first pitcher, and that may take more than a year of adjustment.

The D-Train

What I said in February: "..." Nothing. I didn't even list him as one of the four candidates for the final spot in the rotation! I had zero faith this dude would make the team.

Result so far: He doesn't have eye-popping stats by any means, but, considering what he showed the past two seasons, he's pitched remarkably well. He's even managed 3 quality starts, including six shutout innings against the dreaded Twins. Can he keep it up? Well, that's the million dollar question. Every fan in Detroit is waiting for the other shoe to drop. For now, though, it's fun riding the D-Train. He's a super-nice guy, extremely amicable. It would be great to see him turn his career around as a Tiger. Which brings me to my next question... objectively speaking, what would it take for Dontrelle to earn another contract from the Tigers? Dombrowski has sunk $30million into this cat with practically zero return. Even if Dontrelle had a Cy Young-caliber season, would he warrant a new Tiger contract? I doubt it.

Conclusion

My predictions were, at best, pessimistic, and, at worst, downright wrong. I suppose that's the unpredictable nature of baseball. With Scherzer down at Toledo, Galarraga has a chance to cement that 3rd spot in the rotation. I have more confidence in Armando than either Bondo or D-Train. He pitched five solid innings in his one start thus far. If he keeps it up, the Tigers might actually keep pace with Minnesota in the Central.