What if?

Where have ye gone, Robert Fick?
Imagine a world with no free agency or trades... where teams drafted players, and those players stayed with the same team throughout their career. What would the Tigers' roster look like? How would it compare to the bevy of free agents and traded commodities that comprise the current roster? Let's take a look...

(Players in BOLD appeared in at least one All-star game)

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Catcher: Alex Avila (.214, 5 HR, 20 RBI)

1B: Jeff Larish (waived this season - picked up by Oakland - 3 AB, 0 Hits)

2B: Will Rhymes (.320, 0 HR, 6 RBI)

SS: Omar Infante (Traded to Cubs, now with Atlanta, having career year - .350, 6 HR, 35 RBI)

3B: Brandon Inge (.262, 8 HR, 50 RBI)

OF: Curtis Granderson (Traded to Yanks, disappointing season to date - .244, 13 HR, 38 RBI)

OF: Andres Torres (Released by Tigers, eventually landing with Giants - .284, 13 HR, 51 RBI)

OF: Cody Ross (Traded to Dodgers, now with Giants - .267, 11 HR, 58 RBI)

DH: Brennen Boesch (.273, 14 HR, 59 RBI)

SP: Justin Verlander (14-8, 3.65 ERA)

SP: Jair Jurrjens (Traded to Braves - 5-4, 3.91 ERA)

SP: Rick Porcello (5-11, 5.76 ERA)

SP: Jeff Weaver (Traded to Yankees, now with Dodgers - 5-1, 5.35 ERA)

SP: Luke French (Traded to Mariners - 2-4, 4.57 ERA)

RP: Ryan Perry (2-4, 4.29 ERA, 15 Holds)

RP: Joel Zumaya (2-1, 2.58 ERA, 1.1 WHIP, 11 Holds)

RP: Fernando Rodney (4-1, 3.91 ERA, 21 Holds)

Closer: Francisco Cordero (Traded to Rangers where he starred, now with Reds - 3-4, 3.83 ERA, 34 Saves (284 career saves))

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Let's skip the position players for a moment. The starting pitchers are not horrible. Verlander is one of top 10 pitchers in the AL. Jurrjens is an okay #2. Porcello has potential to be very good. Weaver and French are currently long-relievers but my guess is that they'd be starters on the Tigers. I'd have no problem seeing either French or Weaver take Bonderman's spot. Galarraga is probably a notch above both Weaver and French, though it's not by much. From a talent standpoint, the starting 5 are not terribly different than the current roster.

The bullpen is also about the same. Rodney and Coke are comparable, as are Cordero and Valverde. Cordero's had an amazing career (3-time All-star). Valverde, meanwhile, is younger and may eventually reach Cordero's heights.

So the pitching staff is fair. They're not a playoff caliber staff by any means, but at least they are legit major league players. I wish I could say the same for...

The position players. Try as I might, I could not find a single quality first baseman that was discovered by the Tigers. In this bizarro baseball world, my guess is that Jeff Larish would be the starter (or perhaps out-of-baseball Eric Munson). On the plus-side, Infante and Inge get the bold treatment, but, to be fair, both were controversial All-star picks. Inge made it in on the strength of the final spot online vote. Inge and Infante, though, are definite MLB-caliber players. The jury is still out on Rhymes. The outfield is a bit of a mess, with only Curtis Granderson as a certified good player. Cody Ross and Andres Torres are journeymen at best. Both, however, are more MLB-ready than Don Kelly, Ryan Raburn, or Casper Wells.

As for DH, the best option was Brennen Boesch. I like the kid's bat, but he's obviously unproven. This Tiger team would be decent defensively, but absolutely woeful at the plate. The simple truth is they have no sluggers. Boesch may eventually become a consistent RBI producer, but he's extremely green. They're a lineup of middling bats and heavy strikeouts.

So what can I conclude from all this?

For one thing, Tiger fans should be thankful for Dave Dombrowski. He's had his share of crappy picks and trades, but this team was in absolute shambles when he took over. Looking at the pre-Dombrowski drafts is laughable. The Tigers missed on every single pick, from the 1st round on down. Dombrowski's drafts focused almost exclusively on pitchers and that shows. His position players are weak, but he's had moderate-to-good success with the arms (Verlander, Zoom, Porcello).

The players from the pre-Dombrowski era are mostly out of baseball. Those guys would be in their late 20s and 30s right now - the backbone of the team. Dombrowski had to scrape and claw to fill the massive holes in the roster. To lure players to Detroit, he had to pay and often over-pay. So it's no wonder the Tigers payroll is so absurd. Without homegrown talent, you're stuck with expensive free agents. If DD failed to do this, the Tigers would be the Royals... or, more pointedly, the early-2000s Tigers.

Moving forward, Dombrowski must improve his success rate for position players. He nailed one pick with Curtis Granderson, but the jury is out on all the rest. This year's team is paying the price for that complete lack of depth.

Dombrowski catches a lot of heat for the trades that brought Sheffield and Renteria into town. Those were mistakes for sure, but he shouldn't slow down. Dombrowski hits as often as he misses. Cabrera for Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin seems like an absolute steal at this point. He also plucked Galarraga for next to nothing. And, while it's still early, the trade that brought in Austin Jackson, Max Scherzer, and Phil Coke seems like savvy deal that'll save the club millions while still improving the talent.

DD's not perfect, but he did turn the franchise into a player on the MLB-scene. Despite a salary cap and league-mandated parity, the Lions have yet to reach that level.

Say Goodbye to the Bulldog

Nate Robertson was traded to the Marlins yesterday for prospect Jay Voss. Voss was an 8th round pick who spent the past three seasons in the minors. As a starter, Voss struggled mightily, going 3-13 with a 6.9 ERA in A-ball. Yet, he turned it around last season as a middle reliever in AA-ball, posting an impressive 2.7 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.

It's not often, though, that a middle reliever from AA makes a splash in the bigs. Typically, the best prospects are starters who then convert to middle relief or closers just to make the senior club. So, Voss is a nice, low-risk prospect who may develop a few years down the line.

It may seem a minor miracle that Dombrowski convinced any team to pick up Robertson's contract AND throw in a player. The truth is that the Marlins nabbed Robertson for Voss and $400,000. The Tigers will continue to pick up the remainder of Robertson's $10 million contract. So, like Sheffield last season, the Tigers once again are paying a player to leave.

Why make the trade? It's obviously not about money. There was a logjam at starting pitcher, with Willis, Bonderman, and Robertson vying for two spots. Robertson pitched the best in Spring training and has the fewest red flags (though he still has many). He was probably the only player that would net a prospect in return. Willis and Bonderman both possess higher price tags ($12 million each). Willis has "the thing," and Bonderman has a bum shoulder. He can't hit 95mph, nor does he have bite on his out pitch - the slider. Without the slider, Bonderman is as useful as Maggs on the mound.

As an insurance policy, the Tigers have Eddie Bonine and Phil Coke in the pen. Neither player pitched well this Spring, but Bonine did post solid stats late last season. Coke fared well as a starter in the minors (3.2 ERA, 1.2 WHIP), but only pitched long-relief as a big leaguer. Both are safer options than Willis and Bonderman. Yet, W&B get the nod thanks to their ginormous contracts. Dombrowski has to save face somehow.

As for Nate, I'm happy for him. He gets a chance to jump-start his career in the more pitcher-friendly National League. He was the lone Tiger to actually live in the Metro Detroit area and became a fan favorite. He worked his way up to the starting rotation, but never really had that breakout season due to a lack of wins. In '05, he posted a respectable 4.5 ERA, but only managed 7 wins due to horrid run support (2nd worst in the AL). This fact was oft-repeated by color analyst Rod Allen during Tiger games, and it became a running joke amongst Tiger fans.

"Nate never gets run support"
"Yeah, but he's a bulldog on the mound."

Nate's best season - by far - was '06, when he went 13-13 with a solid 3.84 ERA. The highlight of his career was Game 1 of the ALCS when he blanked the Oakland As through 5 innings. Nate continued his impressive run in early '07 until mid-May when he got rocked on back-to-back starts by Seattle and Boston. Nate was worried he was tipping his pitches. Whether he was or not remains a mystery, but his results were never the same. His ERA plummeted from 2.48 prior to the Seattle game to 4.76 by the end of the year. '08 was even worse, as Robertson was flat-out the worst starting pitcher in the American League with a bloated 6.35 ERA. His career as a Tiger seemed likely finished, if not for that enormous contract he signed after the '06 season. Like most of Dombrowski's signigs, Robertson's effectiveness ceased once he signed on that dotted line.

Robertson spent most of last season on the injured list and returned for a few quality starts in August. It left a glimmer of hope that something was left in the tank. Perhaps that glimmer was enough to persuade the Marlins to part with a prospect for him. That, plus the fact they could pay him a measley $400,000, while the Tigers picked up the remaining $9,600,000.

So, farewell Nate. Hope you turn it around down South.

Lyon gone, perhaps Guillen too

It appears my instincts on Dave Dombrowski are completely incorrect. I thought he'd hold onto Granderson and push to keep Brandon Lyon. Nope. We all know about the Granderson deal, and it was announced yesterday that Lyon signed a 3-year deal with the Astros.

A clever poster on mLive - tigerjohn - commented that, since all these deals are a direct result of the overblown salaries to D-train, Maggs, Nate, and Bonderman, it's like reverse chemo - killing off the healthy cells to keep the disease. Genius.

Now that Lyon is officially gone, will Dombrowski push to keep Rodney? I guess he should. As much as it pained me watching that guy repeatedly walk the bases loaded, he's probably still better than the alternative. Nobody in the Tiger organization is ready to step into the closer's role. The Royals have the best closer in the Central with Joakim Soria, and that dude made just a million bucks last year! Despite spending $40million less than the Tigers, the Royals have a more balanced team. Yet, I shouldn't fault Dombrowski or Ilitch for spending money. They were trying to build a winner and made some poor and unlucky decisions.

The latest rumor is the Tigers are trying to ship Carlos Guillen for Juan Pierre. Pierre is due $18.5M the next two seasons, while Guillen is due even more.

Power Outtage
Mrs. NoFrownMotown and I lost our power last night, so we missed the games. From the score, though, it seems the Wings had a power outtage of a different kind. 42 shots and no goals? 2 shots off the post? And one goal disallowed? It's like Groundhog Day. I read on mLive this morning that the disallowed goal was the team's 4th in 12 games. How many goals from the opposition were waved off in that time? None. What about for the entire season? None. It seems the refs only "intend to call the play dead" when the Wings are trying to score. I'm trying to be objective about this, but the facts make it difficult.

In even worse news, Dan Cleary went down with an undisclosed injury. His status is unknown. I think Joe Kocur just got a call to lace up his skates.

As for the Pistons, Stuckey came close to a triple-double and hit a game-winning shot. Patrick Hayes offers his always-excellent analysis here.

Welcome to irrelevance, Tigers

It's a done deal.

Granderson to Yankees, and Edwin to the Rays. I can stomach the Edwin for another starter (Scherzer). But Granderson? For a prospect? I don't care that he's the top outfield prospect in the Yankees system. If the Yankees thought so highly of the kid, they wouldn't be trying to land Curtis.

I simply am beyond words on this one. How can they let these two guys go? The trade of Edwin would've been a blow, but the trade of Edwin AND Curtis is just too much. Curtis is a fan favorite and all-around good guy - the face of the friggin' franchise. Dombrowski, you broke our hearts.

And, speaking of Dombrowski, I defended the dude up to this point. I felt he was the victim of bad timing and bad luck (see: Dontrelle's contract and the Renteria trade), but this trade is unforgiveable. I will defend him no more. This trade will simply kill attendance next season.

I blame the Twins.

Coincidentally, this link was listed just below the story on the big trade. Good luck with THAT one.

Tiger Talks

With Dombrowski at the winter meetings, every hour brings news of a new Tiger trade. Last night, there was a rumored three team deal that would ship Edwin to the D'backs and Granderson to the Yanks. The Tigers would receive starting pitcher Max Scherzer and center field prospect Austin Jackson (plus others).

Yet, the Tigers cooled on this, according Buster Olney's twitter page. I still don't quite understand why the Tigers would want to trade those two players in the first place. Granderson is slated to earn $5.5M next season. Edwin is out of a contract, but his arbitration deal would be something like $8M. So, the Tigers save roughly $13.5M next year. Folks, that's chump change. They're paying $13M to Guillen alone, $12M to D-train, $12.5M to Bonderman, $10M to Nate, and $18M to Maggs! Yes, it might be nice for Ilitch to clear the Granderson and Edwin salaries off the books and maybe break even, but at what price? The PR hit would be severe. Despite the awful economy, Tiger fans still came to the park last year. They didn't set any attendance records, but they supported a mediocre team all year long. They would certainly do the same next season, unless the fans feel the team isn't interested in winning.

Sports fans are savvy, especially in Detroit. Teams not named the Lions suffer in attendance if fans sense a change in culture. Trading those two young, talented players would send a clear signal that the Tigers are desperately cutting costs. I believe that - if Ilitch publicly stated that money is an issue - fans of Detroit will buy $5 Hot-n-readys every day if it meant keeping the Tiger core in place for 2011. All those salaries that I mentioned earlier (save Guillen) come off the books after this year. That's a total of $60M. Granted, some salaries would increase in 2011, like Verlander, Jackson and Granderson (should they all stay), but the increases would be a small fraction of the $60M.

I find it hard to believe that Dombrowski and Ilitch would not simply take the financial hit in 2010, knowing how much better off they'd be in 2011. Why sacrifice the future? Yet, here we are. Trade rumors every hour on the hour. According to that Buster Olney twitter page, the Tigers are asking for the moon. That's the best news we've heard all week.

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In much, much less interesting news, the Tigers did resign Adam Everett. He'll resume his role as primary shortstop. Ramon Santiago will shift between short and 2nd base, sharing time at 2nd with rookie Scott Sizemore. At the very least, the Tigers middle infield will be in decent shape, though a definite step down without Polanco.

Brandon Lyon and Fernando Rodney both turned down arbitration. That's somewhat good news for Tiger fans. They can still sign with the Tigers, but, should they sign elsewhere, the Tigers get two picks after the 1st round of next year's MLB draft. My guess is that Lyon will draw some interest around the league, but he may stick with the Tigers as the 1st choice closer. As for Rodney, I think he's gone. Some other team will fall in love with his save stats and outbid Dombrowski.