D-Day

Future Piston?
The NBA Draft is Thursday.

For lottery teams like the Pistons, the draft is one day when fans experience a semblance of hope. This year, draft "experts" predict this crop to be weak. A handful of lottery prospects, Perry Jones (Baylor) and John Henson (UNC), opted to stay in school due to the pending NBA lockout, further weakening the draft.

Is it possible this draft will be as weak as 2006? That year saw Andrea Bargnani go #1 overall. Bargnani's had a fine NBA career as a scorer, but his team (Toronto) finds itself in the lottery every year. A #1 pick is supposed to be a difference maker. To date, Bargnani is too one-dimensional, and the worst #1 pick since Kwame Brown. Lamarcus Aldridge - a fine player and future All-star - went #2. But then the poor Charlotte Bobcats regrettably took Adam Morrison. The Gonzaga slasher found the NBA too physical to get to the rim, and he never developed a competent jumpshot. He actually won two rings as the 12th man on the Lakers, but, now, at age 26, he's out of the League. That's a poor pick and draft class, though Portland somehow made the most of it, landing two stars in Lamarcus Aldridge and Brandon Roy (at #6). Further down the list is Rajon Rondo at #21. He's a potential Hall of Famer.

So the point is that even in weak classes like '06, potential All-stars and even Hall of Famers may emerge. The trick is to first find that diamond in the rough. The next part - the even harder part - is to develop that player and surround him with a cast that exploits his talents.

In the current draft, many of the lottery picks will be European players. That's one reason why folks consider it to be a weak class. The average fan has never seen these kids play. Partizan Belgrade's games aren't on ESPN, so we're not privy to Jan Vesely's development. One player we've all seen is Jimmer Fredette. His draft stock may be a good indicator of this class's strength (or lack thereof). He's a streaky scorer who may, if all the stars align, have a career like Jamal Crawford. That's his best case scenario. I like Crawford. He's one of the most consistent scorers in the league. Yet, he's not the kind of player a team can build around. He's a complementary piece. A role player. Fredette may become that. It's more likely he'll end up like Craig Hodges - a 3pt specialist, earning a few minutes per game to stretch the defense.

So where would a potential Craig Hodges go in the draft? Nbadraft.net has Fredette going #13. Draftexpress.com has Fredette going at #7! I suppose potential Craig Hodges may bring in female fans, but is that worth a lottery pick? Fredette's draft position is as much an indictment on this draft as anything else.

There are just too many unknowns. No better example than Bismack Biyombo. The dude dominated a showcase game against top high schoolers, shooting up the draft board. Then, in his workout for NBA scouts, Biyombo's raw, undeveloped offensive ability was on display for all to see. He's a Dikembe Motumbo-type prospect. That's a high ceiling. Yet, he could also flame out like plenty of big centers who can't rely solely on athleticism. Many folks compare Biyombo to Ben Wallace, but that's focusing entirely on their tangibles (size, shot-blocking ability, rebounding, lack of scoring). What made Big Ben an All-star and Defensive Player of the Year was the intangibles - his high basketball IQ. Ben could outwit his opponent. At 6'8, Ben somehow could effectively guard the 7'6 Yao Ming. Ben and Rasheed contained the uncontainable Dwight Howard. Ben, as we all know, outright dominated games without scoring. That takes some severe basketball smarts. Biyombo may have that. He's played professionally for two years in Spain. That's huge. We've seen what pro ball in Europe did for the development of Jonas Jerebko - he came to camp ready to play, unlike the higher-ranked college prospect, Austin Daye. Off the bench in Spain, Biyombo averaged 7.7 pts, 5.8 rb, and 2 blocks in 19 minutes. Those are solid stats for an 18 year old.

As a shot-blocker and rebounder, folks in Detroit see him as a key complement to Greg Monroe, who is more a finesse, fluid passing big man. Biyombo could offer the Pistons the paint presence they've desperately lacked since Big Ben signed with the Bulls.

If the Pistons pass on Biyombo, there are plenty of other Euro options available. Most of the Euro big men fall into the 6'10 perimeter mold. The Pistons already have Charlie Villanueva. Do they really need another? Of course, this may just be lazy scouting. It's possible these kids are taught to work on their outside shots, so, when a scout sees them lining up for a 3, they view them as a poor man's Bargnani. These kids are 18 and 19 years old. Barely done growing. It's impossible to tell how they'll pan out. One prospect, Enes Kanter, didn't even play last season. He tried to play at Kentucky, but the NCAA ruled him ineligible because he received roughly $33,000 in compensation while playing hoops in Turkey. Gotta love the NCAA. They outlaw this kid because as a 16 year old, he made $33,000 in Turkey - all above board. Yet, they avert their eyes when Heisman candidates roll up to practice in Bentleys.

Kanter will have the last laugh. He's a big, strong prospect and likely will make millions as an early draft pick. He'd be a great fit for the Pistons with his 6'11 stout frame. But my guess is he'll be the first center taken, perhaps as early as #4.

If the Pistons opt to go small, the likely candidate is Kemba Walker. Many Piston fans may cringe at the thought of another UConn guard. Yet, if Dumars lets Stuckey walk, it's possible Walker may easily fill the void. He's a solid scorer with small stature. He'll have trouble guarding the more physical point guards in the league. But that won't matter if he blossoms as a true point guard, making his teammates better. Piston fans haven't seen a player like that since Chauncey.