The Wings, despite the injury to Rafalski, are healthy and clicking on both sides of the ice. It's still incredibly early, but Wings' fans must be happy with the play to date. Moving Franzen to that second line really helped distribute goal production. And, thanks to stellar goaltending by Jimmy Howard, the defense did not suffer terribly when Rafalski went down.
So, yeah, I was wrong. It's still early, of course, but I hope I stay wrong.
I took a glance at the teams' stats today, and clicked on their plus/minus. While the plus/minus stat has its faults in other sports, it's quite telling for hockey players. For many years, it was the only way to truly gauge Lidstrom's awesomeness. You just can't fake a +40 rating - something he's done four times in his career. Below the Wings are ranked in order of plus/minus through the first ten games:
Is it any wonder why Hudler's been a healthy scratch the past few games? With a few exceptions, that list is practically a ranking of the best players on the team from top-to-bottom. Some interesting notes... Bertuzzi is tied for 2nd best with a +6. Watching him last season, it was clear the guy had some hockey left in him. While he was known as a bruising goal scorer early in his career, I found myself impressed with his skill level. He meshed well with the highly skilled players like Datsyuk and Z. With his great hands and hockey IQ, he might just get 50 points this year.Interestingly, Stuart is high on the list with a +5, but his regular partner, Kronwall, is way down the list at -2. Due to the Fox/Dish drama, I missed a handful of the early Wing games, so I'm wondering if they were split more often than not. Thanks to Ansar Khan of MLive, who often posts the line pairings, I see that Kronwall spent significant time with Ruslan Salei, while Stuart moved up to partner with Lidstrom. That makes sense. It shows that Babcock still relies on Lidstrom as the top defenseman, with Stuart as his #2. I wouldn't argue with that ranking, though I expect it to change when Rafalski returns.
Now that Ericsson is healthy, he's partnering with Lidstrom. It's helped him through his first two games. Let's hope it continues.
One more thing with regard to plus/minus... I find it strange to see Helm so far down the list. We all know the kid has talent. My guess is that his -2 has more to do with lack of production than anything else. He's tallied just two assists all season. Nobody expects him to light the stat sheet on fire, but he should have a goal or two. For a fourth line player, if he could keep his plus/minus around 0 all season, I'd be happy. Those guys are supposed to enter the game, keep the opposition in check, and, in general, disrupt their offensive flow. If they notch a goal here or there, that's great. Just make sure the other team doesn't score. With Abdelkader on the 3rd line, the 4th line remains Miller-Helm-Eaves. Barring injury, I don't expect that to change.
Tonight, the Wings take on a struggling Edmonton side. Edmonton has always been a tough place to play, even during the down years. Let's hope the Wings continue their run of good form and separate themselves from the pack a little bit.
It's still early, but it's a good start. I too have missed a number of the games, but a few odd thoughts:
ReplyDeleteWinging It In Motown does an excellent +/- analysis called CSSI. http://www.wingingitinmotown.com/2010/10/6/1732907/cssi-tracking-post
JJ from Kansas watches every game, and "cleans up" the "official" goals, assists, +/-, and goalkeeping +/-. Things like adding a third assist or taking away a second assist using common sense, giving an assist to a grinder that draws a penalty that leads to a goal, giving a minus to a guy that takes a penalty that leads to an opposing goal, stuff like that. Also, if the forwards are playing their position correctly, but Ozzie lets in a goal from center ice, or Doug Janik trips over himself allowing a breakaway, the forwards can have their minus wiped (and the defensive goat can be given an additional minus or half-minus).
It's in depth, and not meant to be compared to other teams; just meant to uncover what is "really" happening for the Wings.
Miller, Helm, and Eaves, through ten games, all merit an additional +6, +4, and +2 respectively, moving all three from an "official" negative to an "unofficial" positive. Because the Wings are winning, most players merit a positive, but of note, Janik, Kindl, and Ericsson all have worse +/- than what's listed.
A few other general notes:
ReplyDeleteRight now, it doesn't look like there is a dog in the Central Division. I'm not sure if there are any true contenders besides Detroit, but St Louis looks for real, and their breakthrough has been predicted to happen sometime between 2008 and 2012 due to all of their high draft picks. Even if Nashville has come back to earth, I think it's fair to say that everyone expects Nashville to play hard, and at worst, be fighting for a playoff spot the last day of the season. Likewise, even if Chicago is playing .500 right now, their core will probably keep them in the playoff race, and they may improve as they get comfortable with each other in the second half. Finally, Columbus. If they have found the right formula to achieve their full potential (a la Phoenix and Colorado in 2009-10), it really isn't outlandish to think all five teams make the playoffs. It does bear mentioning, though, that there isn't a scary veteran, playoff-experienced team tearing it up this year. If Chicago or Pittsburgh were 9-1-1, I might be considered. Maybe. Or a New Jersey or Anaheim if they didn't get rid of their entire defense. Needless to say, I'll be happy to see Vancouver or St Louis or Los Angeles deep in the playoffs this year. Washington and Philly, too.
All this means is that the Wings may have a tougher schedule if the division is really that good, so their regular season numbers may be down a bit, but it won't scare me.
Stuart has actually taken on our #1 defenseman role. Not so much a slight to Lidstrom, but more conserving Nick's minutes overall, and his strength for offense. Stu can focus totally on defense. When Rafalski gets back, it will be nice to only have to worry about one defenseman screwing up, instead of two. And for whatever reason, Kronwall never looks the same if he's not next to Stuart.
Jimmy Howard has been crucial. No signs of a sophomore slump. This is outstanding news, since Ozzie continues to embarrass his fans who jumped on the Osgood for The Hall of Fame bandwagon in 2008. If we lose Jimmy for a long stretch, we're in trouble.
The first line has been good, not great. Pavel has been great, but I don't think Hank and Homer are peaking yet.
The second line: Bert has been told to simplify his game. Crash the net, retrieve the puck, pass it off, get some, go again. It's working, and he is doing a lot of what Homer does effectively, but in a different way. I'd like to see Filppula do more (I've typed that for about four years now), but since Bert and Mule are clicking, I'm not going to complain.
The third line has been troublesome until the Calgary game. Curious to see how they look in the next few games with Abdelkader playing with Modano and Cleary.
Bottom line is that the Wings biggest deficiencies right now (third line D, third line forwards) have real reason to think they are turning the corner and going to get better. Barring injury, no reason to think this team won't be approaching 110 points this year.
Love the CSSI. Great find, Cliff's Notes.
ReplyDeleteThat's the sort of Common Sense stat that will never get much traction because of its subjective nature. Yet, God bless blogs and bloggers for giving it a public medium.
Interesting that the CSSI rewards many of the folks we'd expect - Pav, Z, Bert - and penalizes those who we'd also expect - Modano, Kindl. Surprisingly, Hudler doesn't fare as bad as Modano. Maybe Modano should be sitting? I suppose it's easier to healthy-scratch a 26 year old than a Hall of Famer.
Also good points on the strengths/balance of the Central. I find it fascinating that Blackhawks suffered the same fate as the '08 Wings. Other teams pilfered their talent, signing them to larger contract. The Blackhawks kept the core but are missing so many complementary players. It's hurt them.
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