Ex-Tigers

Yesterday was a tough day for Miguel Cabrera. And Tiger fans.

Not only did the Tiger representatives go a combined 0-5... and not only did the American League lose, but the parade of former Tigers at the All-star game was an ugly gut-punch.

Now, I'm a Dombrowski apologist. I remember the days before he arrived. The Tigers were mired in obscurity, not unlike the Lions. True, Dombrowski sacrificed the entire '03 season, trotting out a Triple-A squad at Comerica. But at least that dreadful '03 season allowed the opportunity to draft Verlander. Slowly, Dombrowski did bring the Tigers back to respectability. He overpaid to bring in Pudge and Maggs - two guys key to the rebound and the incredible run in '06. He also convinced Ilitch to open his checkbook to sign young draft picks that were too pricey for most other teams (Verlander, Porcello, Perry, Jacob Turner). He traded Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller for the best hitter in the American League. Yet, that trade also brought in Dontrelle Willis and his train-wreck of a Tiger career.

When most folks fault Dombrowski, it's usually due to his trade record. Dombrowski made a brilliant trade in '05 bringing Polanco to the Tigers for Uggie Urbina. Urbina finished the season with the Phillies and then found himself in a Venezuelan prison after an attempted murder. But Polanco flourished with Detroit. He was a premier 2nd baseman. Polanco wanted to stay with the Tigers. Yet, Dombrowski, inexplicably, opted not to sign Polanco after his Gold Glove '09 season. Does DD regret that decision? I would venture he does every time he hears the phrase: "Starting at second base... Ryan Raburn."

One of many painful images

Placido Polanco was perhaps the most painful player for Tiger fans to watch in the All-star game. Next on that list? Jair Jurrjens.

Now Jurrjens is usually Exhibit A in the case against Dombrowski. For many Tiger fans, Jurrjens may be the toughest player to watch succeed elsewhere. Yet, for me, I didn't loathe the Jurrjens trade at the time. The Tigers called Jurrjens mid-season in '07. He started 7 games, going 3-1 with a 4.70 ERA. That's not a sparkling ERA by any means, but he did show potential with a 1.1 WHIP. Atlanta thought enough of Jurrjens to take him in exchange for Edgar Renteria. That season, Renteria was one of the best hitters in all of baseball with a .332 average. The Tigers needed a short-stop to replace Carlos Guillen who's body was breaking down and no longer had short-stop range. Acquiring the professional hitter Renteria for Jurrjens seemed a no-brainer.

Renteria flamed out as a Tiger, hitting just .270, while Jurrjens rewarded the Braves with progressively awesome stuff, leading to his first All-star appearance this season. He's currently 12-3 with a 1.87 ERA. Those numbers surpass even Verlander. Once again, the Tigers gift the Braves an ace.

A lesser-but-still-painful player to watch in the All-star game was Curtis Granderson. The only consolation to the Granderson trade is that the jury is still out. Last season, most Tiger fans were content, as Granderson underperformed and Austin Jackson finished 2nd in rookie-of-the-year voting. Phil Coke, a throw-in for the deal, also seemed to have a bright future. Everything flip-flopped this year. Granderson put up MVP-level numbers, with 25 HR, 63 RBI, 15 SB. Austin Jackson spent most of the first half hovering around .200, and Phil Coke was demoted to the bullpen after a failed attempt at starting. At least the Tigers saved money. Granderson's take-home is 2,954% larger than Jackson's.

Unfortunately, we're still not done.

Another ex-Tiger in the All-star game -- and perhaps the biggest surprise of them all -- was Matt Joyce. Some Tiger fans fell in love with Joyce's big bat in the Summer of '08. Joyce stepped into the spot vacated by Greg Monroe and provided decent pop (12 HR) for a part-time player/rookie. And he was a lefty! But Dombrowski had other plans. He parlayed Matt Joyce - a moderately successful rookie - into a certified big league starting pitcher, Edwin Jackson. It seemed a brilliant stroke, and, in many ways, it was. Starters are tough to come by. Tougher, at least, than a power-hitting outfielder. Jackson dominated as a Tiger, making his first All-star team, but faded surprisingly late in the season. Jackson's issues in August and September of '09 were amplified due to the pressure-cooker of a pennant race. He simply didn't deliver in crunch time. Jackson was sent packing for Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth. The jury is still out on Scherzer. He's shown flashes of absolutely dominant stuff. Yet, he's also been lit up like a Christmas tree. Which Scherzer is the real Scherzer?

Matt Joyce, meanwhile, started slowly with the Marlins. This year, he finally put it together, hitting .290 with 12 HRs. Those aren't stellar All-star numbers, but he made it nonetheless. I admit, I was pretty surprised to see him walk up to the plate last night. It seemed a bit bizarre -- Matt Joyce, American League All-star. But he did well and notched a hit. He kills the Tigers every chance he gets, further angering Tiger fans. Yet, I bet every GM in the league trades Matt Joyce for Max Scherzer straight-up. Starters are that valuable. Even inconsistent ones.

What if?

Where have ye gone, Robert Fick?
Imagine a world with no free agency or trades... where teams drafted players, and those players stayed with the same team throughout their career. What would the Tigers' roster look like? How would it compare to the bevy of free agents and traded commodities that comprise the current roster? Let's take a look...

(Players in BOLD appeared in at least one All-star game)

------------

Catcher: Alex Avila (.214, 5 HR, 20 RBI)

1B: Jeff Larish (waived this season - picked up by Oakland - 3 AB, 0 Hits)

2B: Will Rhymes (.320, 0 HR, 6 RBI)

SS: Omar Infante (Traded to Cubs, now with Atlanta, having career year - .350, 6 HR, 35 RBI)

3B: Brandon Inge (.262, 8 HR, 50 RBI)

OF: Curtis Granderson (Traded to Yanks, disappointing season to date - .244, 13 HR, 38 RBI)

OF: Andres Torres (Released by Tigers, eventually landing with Giants - .284, 13 HR, 51 RBI)

OF: Cody Ross (Traded to Dodgers, now with Giants - .267, 11 HR, 58 RBI)

DH: Brennen Boesch (.273, 14 HR, 59 RBI)

SP: Justin Verlander (14-8, 3.65 ERA)

SP: Jair Jurrjens (Traded to Braves - 5-4, 3.91 ERA)

SP: Rick Porcello (5-11, 5.76 ERA)

SP: Jeff Weaver (Traded to Yankees, now with Dodgers - 5-1, 5.35 ERA)

SP: Luke French (Traded to Mariners - 2-4, 4.57 ERA)

RP: Ryan Perry (2-4, 4.29 ERA, 15 Holds)

RP: Joel Zumaya (2-1, 2.58 ERA, 1.1 WHIP, 11 Holds)

RP: Fernando Rodney (4-1, 3.91 ERA, 21 Holds)

Closer: Francisco Cordero (Traded to Rangers where he starred, now with Reds - 3-4, 3.83 ERA, 34 Saves (284 career saves))

----------

Let's skip the position players for a moment. The starting pitchers are not horrible. Verlander is one of top 10 pitchers in the AL. Jurrjens is an okay #2. Porcello has potential to be very good. Weaver and French are currently long-relievers but my guess is that they'd be starters on the Tigers. I'd have no problem seeing either French or Weaver take Bonderman's spot. Galarraga is probably a notch above both Weaver and French, though it's not by much. From a talent standpoint, the starting 5 are not terribly different than the current roster.

The bullpen is also about the same. Rodney and Coke are comparable, as are Cordero and Valverde. Cordero's had an amazing career (3-time All-star). Valverde, meanwhile, is younger and may eventually reach Cordero's heights.

So the pitching staff is fair. They're not a playoff caliber staff by any means, but at least they are legit major league players. I wish I could say the same for...

The position players. Try as I might, I could not find a single quality first baseman that was discovered by the Tigers. In this bizarro baseball world, my guess is that Jeff Larish would be the starter (or perhaps out-of-baseball Eric Munson). On the plus-side, Infante and Inge get the bold treatment, but, to be fair, both were controversial All-star picks. Inge made it in on the strength of the final spot online vote. Inge and Infante, though, are definite MLB-caliber players. The jury is still out on Rhymes. The outfield is a bit of a mess, with only Curtis Granderson as a certified good player. Cody Ross and Andres Torres are journeymen at best. Both, however, are more MLB-ready than Don Kelly, Ryan Raburn, or Casper Wells.

As for DH, the best option was Brennen Boesch. I like the kid's bat, but he's obviously unproven. This Tiger team would be decent defensively, but absolutely woeful at the plate. The simple truth is they have no sluggers. Boesch may eventually become a consistent RBI producer, but he's extremely green. They're a lineup of middling bats and heavy strikeouts.

So what can I conclude from all this?

For one thing, Tiger fans should be thankful for Dave Dombrowski. He's had his share of crappy picks and trades, but this team was in absolute shambles when he took over. Looking at the pre-Dombrowski drafts is laughable. The Tigers missed on every single pick, from the 1st round on down. Dombrowski's drafts focused almost exclusively on pitchers and that shows. His position players are weak, but he's had moderate-to-good success with the arms (Verlander, Zoom, Porcello).

The players from the pre-Dombrowski era are mostly out of baseball. Those guys would be in their late 20s and 30s right now - the backbone of the team. Dombrowski had to scrape and claw to fill the massive holes in the roster. To lure players to Detroit, he had to pay and often over-pay. So it's no wonder the Tigers payroll is so absurd. Without homegrown talent, you're stuck with expensive free agents. If DD failed to do this, the Tigers would be the Royals... or, more pointedly, the early-2000s Tigers.

Moving forward, Dombrowski must improve his success rate for position players. He nailed one pick with Curtis Granderson, but the jury is out on all the rest. This year's team is paying the price for that complete lack of depth.

Dombrowski catches a lot of heat for the trades that brought Sheffield and Renteria into town. Those were mistakes for sure, but he shouldn't slow down. Dombrowski hits as often as he misses. Cabrera for Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin seems like an absolute steal at this point. He also plucked Galarraga for next to nothing. And, while it's still early, the trade that brought in Austin Jackson, Max Scherzer, and Phil Coke seems like savvy deal that'll save the club millions while still improving the talent.

DD's not perfect, but he did turn the franchise into a player on the MLB-scene. Despite a salary cap and league-mandated parity, the Lions have yet to reach that level.

Sifting through the rubble

With the departures of Granderson, Edwin, Polanco, Thames, Rodney, and Lyon, who is left?

First, I should clarify that Rodney and Lyon can still re-sign with the team, though I find it doubtful. Dombrowski continues to scour the closer market. He's still eying oft-injured JJ Putz. It's clear that the 2010 Tigers will be vastly different.

For all his troubles against lefties, Granderson was still one of the better Tiger hitters. He slumped through most of 2009, but, for his career, hit .272 - not bad for a guy who also knocked in 30 home runs. He brought Gold Glove-level defense to center field, and his intangibles... well, they're off the charts. He is the type of guy you build the team around.

The Tigers will likely not miss him on the offensive end, but the gaping holes in centerfield, in the lockerroom, and at the ticket office will be tangible. Sifting through the message boards, I lost count of how many fans said they would not renew their season tickets. When March rolls around, there will be zero buzz about these Tigers. Attendance could drop 30-40%. With that said, all the angry fans (myself included) will be back on the bandwagon should the team start winning.

How likely is that with so many key cogs no longer in place? Let's take a look at who is coming to Detroit from the Granderson/Jackson trade:

Max Scherzer - 25 year old starting pitcher. Like all the players on this list, I've never seen this kid play, so I'll limit any personal editorial. Everything will be based on facts and stats. Scherzer was the D-backs 1st round pick (11th overall) three years ago. He's got a big right arm that reaches 95+. In his first full season of duty, Scherzer went 9-11 (for a 70-92 team) with a 4.12 ERA. Two more stats pop out with this kid: a fair 1.3 WHIP and an impressive 9.2 K/9innings. He seems to have the makings of a good-to-very-good starter. Why would Arizona let him go? They likely thought that Edwin Jackson is simply better. Edwin's stats from last season are far superior to Scherzer's, especially considering that Edwin was pitching in a high-stress pennant race. Edwin's numbers dropped off in the 2nd half, but he still finished with a superior ERA, WHIP, and win total. No doubt the Tigers are hoping Scherzer can make the jump that Edwin did this past season, but pitching in the American league will be significantly tougher.

Austin Jackson - 22 year old outfielder. Jackson hit .300 in AAA last season, with 24 steals and 123 strikeouts. He's a righty with speed, but that strikeout total is high for a contact hitter (4 HRs). Why would the Yankees let him go? Most top prospects make the jump to the majors directly from AA. The fact that Jackson spent an entire season in AAA shows that the Yankees felt he needed more seasoning. The Tigers are in desperate need of lefties. Giving up a lefty for a righty makes little sense. But the Tigers have no definite answer for center field right now. Jackson will likely battle Clete Thomas for that spot next season.

Phil Coke - 26 year old lefty reliever. Coke pitched 60 innings of middle relief for the Yankees, sporting a 4.50 ERA. He had 21 holds but 5 blown saves. Why would the Yankees let him go? Likely the blown saves and high ERA did not impress the pinstripes. Coke should have no trouble making the Tigers bullpen, though he and Bobby Seay fill the same role. Seay, with a high salary, might get sacrificed.

Dan Schlereth - 23 year old lefty reliever. Another former first round pick of the D-backs (26th overall). Last season, Schlereth ascended from AA to AAA to the majors. His combined numbers in the minors were 0.98 ERA, with an eye-popping 13K/9innings. With the senior team, Schlereth hit a wall - pitching 18 innings with a 5.9 ERA. Why would the Diamondbacks let him go? I honestly don't know why other than they weren't happy with his high ERA. Hard-throwing lefties are tough to find. My guess is Schlereth will start the season in the minors as a potential closer and see how he fares.

All these players seem like fair-to-good prospects. Trading known commodities (not mention All-stars) for prospects is always a huge gamble. The four players coming in are extremely cheap and can't become free agents for many years. The two players going out are more expensive and will command even more salary in the coming years. I figured Dombrowski and Ilitch would wait and take the hit for 2010. I was clearly wrong. They traded two key cogs to the team and received question marks in return. Will the Tigers be better next year? Extremely doubtful. The losses will pile up as the new faces take their major league lumps (if they even make the team).

Welcome to irrelevance, Tigers

It's a done deal.

Granderson to Yankees, and Edwin to the Rays. I can stomach the Edwin for another starter (Scherzer). But Granderson? For a prospect? I don't care that he's the top outfield prospect in the Yankees system. If the Yankees thought so highly of the kid, they wouldn't be trying to land Curtis.

I simply am beyond words on this one. How can they let these two guys go? The trade of Edwin would've been a blow, but the trade of Edwin AND Curtis is just too much. Curtis is a fan favorite and all-around good guy - the face of the friggin' franchise. Dombrowski, you broke our hearts.

And, speaking of Dombrowski, I defended the dude up to this point. I felt he was the victim of bad timing and bad luck (see: Dontrelle's contract and the Renteria trade), but this trade is unforgiveable. I will defend him no more. This trade will simply kill attendance next season.

I blame the Twins.

Coincidentally, this link was listed just below the story on the big trade. Good luck with THAT one.

Tiger Talks

With Dombrowski at the winter meetings, every hour brings news of a new Tiger trade. Last night, there was a rumored three team deal that would ship Edwin to the D'backs and Granderson to the Yanks. The Tigers would receive starting pitcher Max Scherzer and center field prospect Austin Jackson (plus others).

Yet, the Tigers cooled on this, according Buster Olney's twitter page. I still don't quite understand why the Tigers would want to trade those two players in the first place. Granderson is slated to earn $5.5M next season. Edwin is out of a contract, but his arbitration deal would be something like $8M. So, the Tigers save roughly $13.5M next year. Folks, that's chump change. They're paying $13M to Guillen alone, $12M to D-train, $12.5M to Bonderman, $10M to Nate, and $18M to Maggs! Yes, it might be nice for Ilitch to clear the Granderson and Edwin salaries off the books and maybe break even, but at what price? The PR hit would be severe. Despite the awful economy, Tiger fans still came to the park last year. They didn't set any attendance records, but they supported a mediocre team all year long. They would certainly do the same next season, unless the fans feel the team isn't interested in winning.

Sports fans are savvy, especially in Detroit. Teams not named the Lions suffer in attendance if fans sense a change in culture. Trading those two young, talented players would send a clear signal that the Tigers are desperately cutting costs. I believe that - if Ilitch publicly stated that money is an issue - fans of Detroit will buy $5 Hot-n-readys every day if it meant keeping the Tiger core in place for 2011. All those salaries that I mentioned earlier (save Guillen) come off the books after this year. That's a total of $60M. Granted, some salaries would increase in 2011, like Verlander, Jackson and Granderson (should they all stay), but the increases would be a small fraction of the $60M.

I find it hard to believe that Dombrowski and Ilitch would not simply take the financial hit in 2010, knowing how much better off they'd be in 2011. Why sacrifice the future? Yet, here we are. Trade rumors every hour on the hour. According to that Buster Olney twitter page, the Tigers are asking for the moon. That's the best news we've heard all week.

*************

In much, much less interesting news, the Tigers did resign Adam Everett. He'll resume his role as primary shortstop. Ramon Santiago will shift between short and 2nd base, sharing time at 2nd with rookie Scott Sizemore. At the very least, the Tigers middle infield will be in decent shape, though a definite step down without Polanco.

Brandon Lyon and Fernando Rodney both turned down arbitration. That's somewhat good news for Tiger fans. They can still sign with the Tigers, but, should they sign elsewhere, the Tigers get two picks after the 1st round of next year's MLB draft. My guess is that Lyon will draw some interest around the league, but he may stick with the Tigers as the 1st choice closer. As for Rodney, I think he's gone. Some other team will fall in love with his save stats and outbid Dombrowski.