Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Sifting through the rubble

With the departures of Granderson, Edwin, Polanco, Thames, Rodney, and Lyon, who is left?

First, I should clarify that Rodney and Lyon can still re-sign with the team, though I find it doubtful. Dombrowski continues to scour the closer market. He's still eying oft-injured JJ Putz. It's clear that the 2010 Tigers will be vastly different.

For all his troubles against lefties, Granderson was still one of the better Tiger hitters. He slumped through most of 2009, but, for his career, hit .272 - not bad for a guy who also knocked in 30 home runs. He brought Gold Glove-level defense to center field, and his intangibles... well, they're off the charts. He is the type of guy you build the team around.

The Tigers will likely not miss him on the offensive end, but the gaping holes in centerfield, in the lockerroom, and at the ticket office will be tangible. Sifting through the message boards, I lost count of how many fans said they would not renew their season tickets. When March rolls around, there will be zero buzz about these Tigers. Attendance could drop 30-40%. With that said, all the angry fans (myself included) will be back on the bandwagon should the team start winning.

How likely is that with so many key cogs no longer in place? Let's take a look at who is coming to Detroit from the Granderson/Jackson trade:

Max Scherzer - 25 year old starting pitcher. Like all the players on this list, I've never seen this kid play, so I'll limit any personal editorial. Everything will be based on facts and stats. Scherzer was the D-backs 1st round pick (11th overall) three years ago. He's got a big right arm that reaches 95+. In his first full season of duty, Scherzer went 9-11 (for a 70-92 team) with a 4.12 ERA. Two more stats pop out with this kid: a fair 1.3 WHIP and an impressive 9.2 K/9innings. He seems to have the makings of a good-to-very-good starter. Why would Arizona let him go? They likely thought that Edwin Jackson is simply better. Edwin's stats from last season are far superior to Scherzer's, especially considering that Edwin was pitching in a high-stress pennant race. Edwin's numbers dropped off in the 2nd half, but he still finished with a superior ERA, WHIP, and win total. No doubt the Tigers are hoping Scherzer can make the jump that Edwin did this past season, but pitching in the American league will be significantly tougher.

Austin Jackson - 22 year old outfielder. Jackson hit .300 in AAA last season, with 24 steals and 123 strikeouts. He's a righty with speed, but that strikeout total is high for a contact hitter (4 HRs). Why would the Yankees let him go? Most top prospects make the jump to the majors directly from AA. The fact that Jackson spent an entire season in AAA shows that the Yankees felt he needed more seasoning. The Tigers are in desperate need of lefties. Giving up a lefty for a righty makes little sense. But the Tigers have no definite answer for center field right now. Jackson will likely battle Clete Thomas for that spot next season.

Phil Coke - 26 year old lefty reliever. Coke pitched 60 innings of middle relief for the Yankees, sporting a 4.50 ERA. He had 21 holds but 5 blown saves. Why would the Yankees let him go? Likely the blown saves and high ERA did not impress the pinstripes. Coke should have no trouble making the Tigers bullpen, though he and Bobby Seay fill the same role. Seay, with a high salary, might get sacrificed.

Dan Schlereth - 23 year old lefty reliever. Another former first round pick of the D-backs (26th overall). Last season, Schlereth ascended from AA to AAA to the majors. His combined numbers in the minors were 0.98 ERA, with an eye-popping 13K/9innings. With the senior team, Schlereth hit a wall - pitching 18 innings with a 5.9 ERA. Why would the Diamondbacks let him go? I honestly don't know why other than they weren't happy with his high ERA. Hard-throwing lefties are tough to find. My guess is Schlereth will start the season in the minors as a potential closer and see how he fares.

All these players seem like fair-to-good prospects. Trading known commodities (not mention All-stars) for prospects is always a huge gamble. The four players coming in are extremely cheap and can't become free agents for many years. The two players going out are more expensive and will command even more salary in the coming years. I figured Dombrowski and Ilitch would wait and take the hit for 2010. I was clearly wrong. They traded two key cogs to the team and received question marks in return. Will the Tigers be better next year? Extremely doubtful. The losses will pile up as the new faces take their major league lumps (if they even make the team).

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