Tuesday, August 24, 2010

What if?

Where have ye gone, Robert Fick?

Imagine a world with no free agency or trades... where teams drafted players, and those players stayed with the same team throughout their career. What would the Tigers' roster look like? How would it compare to the bevy of free agents and traded commodities that comprise the current roster? Let's take a look...

(Players in BOLD appeared in at least one All-star game)

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Catcher: Alex Avila (.214, 5 HR, 20 RBI)
1B: Jeff Larish (waived this season - picked up by Oakland - 3 AB, 0 Hits)
2B: Will Rhymes (.320, 0 HR, 6 RBI)
SS: Omar Infante (Traded to Cubs, now with Atlanta, having career year - .350, 6 HR, 35 RBI)
3B: Brandon Inge (.262, 8 HR, 50 RBI)
OF: Curtis Granderson (Traded to Yanks, disappointing season to date - .244, 13 HR, 38 RBI)
OF: Andres Torres (Released by Tigers, eventually landing with Giants - .284, 13 HR, 51 RBI)
OF: Cody Ross (Traded to Dodgers, now with Giants - .267, 11 HR, 58 RBI)
DH: Brennen Boesch (.273, 14 HR, 59 RBI)

SP: Justin Verlander (14-8, 3.65 ERA)
SP: Jair Jurrjens (Traded to Braves - 5-4, 3.91 ERA)
SP: Rick Porcello (5-11, 5.76 ERA)
SP: Jeff Weaver (Traded to Yankees, now with Dodgers - 5-1, 5.35 ERA)
SP: Luke French (Traded to Mariners - 2-4, 4.57 ERA)

RP: Ryan Perry (2-4, 4.29 ERA, 15 Holds)
RP: Joel Zumaya (2-1, 2.58 ERA, 1.1 WHIP, 11 Holds)
RP: Fernando Rodney (4-1, 3.91 ERA, 21 Holds)
Closer: Francisco Cordero (Traded to Rangers where he starred, now with Reds - 3-4, 3.83 ERA, 34 Saves (284 career saves))

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Let's skip the position players for a moment. The starting pitchers are not horrible. Verlander is one of top 10 pitchers in the AL. Jurrjens is an okay #2. Porcello has potential to be very good. Weaver and French are currently long-relievers but my guess is that they'd be starters on the Tigers. I'd have no problem seeing either French or Weaver take Bonderman's spot. Galarraga is probably a notch above both Weaver and French, though it's not by much. From a talent standpoint, the starting 5 are not terribly different than the current roster.

The bullpen is also about the same. Rodney and Coke are comparable, as are Cordero and Valverde. Cordero's had an amazing career (3-time All-star). Valverde, meanwhile, is younger and may eventually reach Cordero's heights.

So the pitching staff is fair. They're not a playoff caliber staff by any means, but at least they are legit major league players. I wish I could say the same for...

The position players. Try as I might, I could not find a single quality first baseman that was discovered by the Tigers. In this bizarro baseball world, my guess is that Jeff Larish would be the starter (or perhaps out-of-baseball Eric Munson). On the plus-side, Infante and Inge get the bold treatment, but, to be fair, both were controversial All-star picks. Inge made it in on the strength of the final spot online vote. Inge and Infante, though, are definite MLB-caliber players. The jury is still out on Rhymes. The outfield is a bit of a mess, with only Curtis Granderson as a certified good player. Cody Ross and Andres Torres are journeymen at best. Both, however, are more MLB-ready than Don Kelly, Ryan Raburn, or Casper Wells.

As for DH, the best option was Brennen Boesch. I like the kid's bat, but he's obviously unproven. This Tiger team would be decent defensively, but absolutely woeful at the plate. The simple truth is they have no sluggers. Boesch may eventually become a consistent RBI producer, but he's extremely green. They're a lineup of middling bats and heavy strikeouts.

So what can I conclude from all this?
For one thing, Tiger fans should be thankful for Dave Dombrowski. He's had his share of crappy picks and trades, but this team was in absolute shambles when he took over. Looking at the pre-Dombrowski drafts is laughable. The Tigers missed on every single pick, from the 1st round on down. Dombrowski's drafts focused almost exclusively on pitchers and that shows. His position players are weak, but he's had moderate-to-good success with the arms (Verlander, Zoom, Porcello).

The players from the pre-Dombrowski era are mostly out of baseball. Those guys would be in their late 20s and 30s right now - the backbone of the team. Dombrowski had to scrape and claw to fill the massive holes in the roster. To lure players to Detroit, he had to pay and often over-pay. So it's no wonder the Tigers payroll is so absurd. Without homegrown talent, you're stuck with expensive free agents. If DD failed to do this, the Tigers would be the Royals... or, more pointedly, the early-2000s Tigers.

Moving forward, Dombrowski must improve his success rate for position players. He nailed one pick with Curtis Granderson, but the jury is out on all the rest. This year's team is paying the price for that complete lack of depth.

Dombrowski catches a lot of heat for the trades that brought Sheffield and Renteria into town. Those were mistakes for sure, but he shouldn't slow down. Dombrowski hits as often as he misses. Cabrera for Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin seems like an absolute steal at this point. He also plucked Galarraga for next to nothing. And, while it's still early, the trade that brought in Austin Jackson, Max Scherzer, and Phil Coke seems like savvy deal that'll save the club millions while still improving the talent.

DD's not perfect, but he did turn the franchise into a player on the MLB-scene. Despite a salary cap and league-mandated parity, the Lions have yet to reach that level.

2 comments:

  1. For 4 months, until he hurt his shoulder, Sheffield hit the ball harder than anyone in the AL in 2007. When he went down, so did the ball club. The Tigers gave up nothing for him, and only lost the salary through 2008. I'd hardly fault Dombrowski for that trade. Renteria sure didn't work out, but looking at his years until then, especially 2007, who doesn't make that trade? The Tigers didn't know they were going to land Cabrera a month later. If we don't make the Renteria trade, Jurrjens would have most likely been in the Cabrera deal instead of Andrew Miller. His trades that have worked out by far outweigh the flops or fizzles. His weakness has been in giving long-term deals to guys who do not deserve long-term deals (see Robertson, Nate and Willis, Dontrelle).

    It's a shame that a city that has had Matt Millen and Randy Smith feels the need to bag on a skilled GM like Dombrowski.

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  2. Excellent point.
    It's easy to forget that Sheff was solid (if not very good) during the first half of '07. I believe he was near the top of the league in runs scored. He had savvy baserunning skills - something the current team lacks.

    As for Renteria, he hit something like .330 the year before he came to Detroit. My only knock on that particular trade is that Renteria was no upgrade on defense. I would've preferred DD to go after a more balanced player. With that said, I can't fault DD for pulling the trigger. Jurrjens turned out fine, but he was no world-beater in Detroit. In his final four starts, he had a 5.7 ERA.

    It's true... Dombrowski's main fault is the contract extensions. I appreciated Robertson as much as the next guy, but even I couldn't understand why he got such a big contract.

    I would plead for every Tiger fan that wants Dombrowski out of town to peruse the draft picks pre-2002:
    Matt Wheatland (#8 overall) - Made a grand total of 16 minor league appearances before calling it a career
    Eric Munson (#3 overall) - Career .214 hitter at least made it to the bigs. Taken after Josh Hamilton and Josh Beckett. Ouch.
    Matt Anderson (#1 overall) - Tigers took Anderson over the more expensive JD Drew and Troy Glaus.

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