On the bright side

With the season spiraling out of control for the Tigers, it's time to look to the future. I suppose this is always the mark of a dreadful organization. When fans start fantasizing about next year - before the current year is close to over - the team must be in shambles. In Millen's final season with the Lions, fans started talking about "next year" after Week 2. In fact, I remember watching Fox2's Dan Miller say on SportsWorks after Week 2, "Is it too early to write off the season?!" And he's no mere fan. Dan Miller is the Lions play-by-play announcer! The team proceeded to lose the remaining 14 games. Clearly the fans weren't the only ones who stopped caring.

Despite the Tigers win yesterday, the fact remains that they're 6-20 since the All-star break. That's the worst record in the Majors. So, it's not a stretch to say the Tigers are the worst team in baseball. I suppose I could amend it by saying they're "currently the worst team" but that's splitting hairs. Bad is bad. Yet, Mike Ilitch announced last week that both Dombrowski and Leyland would return to the organization next year.

The Leyland decision is quite worrisome. Besides his tragic track record of limping in the second half (career Tiger record post All-star break: 143-177), my two most recent posts documented his tendency to put his players in a position to fail. I don't foresee that trend changing any time soon. Regardless, Leyland did win a World Series, and it takes a special manager to accomplish that. He also seems to have the respect of his players. While I'm not a Leyland fan, I'm not going to write off 2011 simply due to his involvement.

Dombrowski, meanwhile, is a different story. I actually like the guy. While he rightfully should be skewered for colossally horrible contract extensions, he does have a decent track record at the draft. He's also fearless. The Granderson trade last season is the perfect example. That move - made for future success - actually worked out for the current season too. DD was killed by the fans at the time (I was no exception), but he proved he's wiser than all of us. To be honest, the person who should most hate Dombrowski is the guy who wants him back! Dombrowski squandered millions upon millions of Ilitch's dollars. He paid $12million to Sheffield to go away. Nate Robertson got $10million of Ilitch's cash to play for the Marlins. And then there's Dontrelle Willis - perhaps the most embarrassing contract extension ($30 million plus) in the history of the Tigers. Yet, ol' DD can hit the reset button in October. Most of the dreadful contracts expire.

Specifically, all the names mentioned above are off the books. In addition, Bonderman, who earned a staggering $12.5million this season, is a free agent. Same for Johnny Damon ($8M). Inge too ($6.6M). The heavens part and the sun shines once again in Comerica Park as Gerald Laird's contract ($4M) expires. And, as was reported ad nauseum in Detroit recently, Magglio Ordonez's injury effectly eliminates his chance at $15M next season. Those big names, plus the Adam Everetts and Bobby Seays of the world means the Tigers clear a whopping $74.4 million off their 2010 payroll.

With all that cash off the books, who's left? The building blocks.

• Miguel Cabrera (signed through 2015)
• Valverde (signed for one more season)
• Verlander (signed through 2014)
• Guillen (one more season)
• Peralta (a small club buyout if Tigers don't want him but I bet they do)
• Porcello (one more season)
• Scherzer (too young to be free agent-eligible)
• Miner, Zumaya, Galarraga, and Rayburn will only return if the Tigers want them (Arbitration-eligible)
• The contracts for the super-young players (Boesch, Jackson, Rhymes) are negligible (each around $500k)

All told, the Tigers have $55M committed to the 2011 roster, and that cash (plus what Imperfecto Galarraga would earn in arbitration) covers 4/5 of their starting rotation! Amazingly, that $55M accounts for 66% of their RBI total this season too. The only big RBI losses would be Ordonez and Inge, and there's no guarantee Magg's would sign elsewhere. He may return, but he'd have to take a major Damon-esque paycut. His agent, Scott Boras, would definitely battle that. Regardless, all this data informs that the Tigers got tremendous value for that $55M, and almost zero value for the remaining $74M.

The big question entering 2011 will be what Dombrowski and Ilitch choose to do with the extra $74M. Does Ilitch pocket the cash, hoping to recoup money that was potentially lost in 2009 and 2010? Or does he spend, spend, spend?

The $55M does not account for a catcher, 3rd baseman, and outfielder. So they're at least three position players short. If they spend $10M for each position, the Tigers could land some serious bats and still be saving significant cash from the 2010 payroll.

Here are just a few of the free agents available (and their current stats):

• Catchers - John Buck (.277, 14 HR, 49 RBI), Victor Martinez (.283, 10 HR, 40 RBI)
• 3rd Basemen - Jorge Cantu (.264, 10HR, 54 RBI), Juan Uribe (.256 15 HR, 63 RBI)
• Outfielders - Carl Crawford (.299, 12 HR, 58 RBI, 38 stolen bases!), Jason Kubel (.266, 15 HR, 68 RBI), Scott Podsednik (.300, 5 HR, 47 RBI, 34 stolen bases), Jayson Werth (.301, 16 HR, 58 RBI), Magglio Ordonez (.303, 12 HR, 59 RBI)

As expected, the catcher position is quite weak. Only Buck is a viable option. Victor Martinez would likely command a hefty price tag, and opposing teams would steal on him at will. The Tigers had massive difficulty against teams with speed this season. Martinez would not help in that regard. Both Buck and Martinez would be a massive upgrade from Laird, but Buck is cheaper.

I'm surprised there aren't better options available at third base. I'm not enamored with either option listed above. Adrian Beltre is also slated to be a free agent, but he has a player option to stick with Boston. Furthermore, Beltre's having a stellar season and will likely command a salary only in the Yankees or Red Sox realm. The Tigers have the cash to match almost anything, but they don't have the clout. I suppose I should've included Inge on the list of free agent possibilities, since the Tiger organization likes him. Inge... gulp... could be back as the Tigers 3rd baseman, though I'd prefer either Cantu or Uribe.

The real gem of the free agent class is Carl Crawford. Crawford is that rare 5-tool player who can help you win in so many ways. The Tigers would face massive competition for his services. If history is any indication, the Tigers have an extremely slim chance to sign this kid, but I have no doubt they'll try. When they go head-to-head with the kings of the league (Yankees, Dodgers, Sox), the Tigers lose. He'd be an incredible addition, and one can dream... but they're more likely to land a Scott Podsednik. And he's a fine consolation prize, though much older than Crawford. Podsednik offers the same level of speed as Crawford though not the power. Kubel is another interesting proposition. Would he ever consider signing with the Tigers after spending a career with the Twins? Not likely. But money talks, and the Tigers have it. Then there's Maggs. Statistically, his numbers stack up favorably with all those players. Defensively, he's serviceable. The dude would just have to take a pay cut. I'd be thrilled if the Tigers re-signed Maggs, and also landed Pods or Kubel or Werth. They'd have to figure out what to do with Boesch, so maybe play Maggs as DH?

There are options. Especially in outfield. That's where the Tigers should focus all their energy come October. The bats are available.