Analyzing Dombrowski's Moves

Back in August, I calculated that the Tigers had just $55M committed to the 2011 roster. Salaries for Maggs, Robertson, Willis, Bonderman, Laird, and Everett all came off the books - clearing an astounding $74.4M.

It's safe to say that Ilitch would prefer to limit his payroll in light of the economic situation in the D. But Ilitch is also 81 years old. He wants to win. Based on the recent moves by Dombrowski, Ilitch has given the green light to spend.

In that same post in August, I targeted catcher, 3rd baseman, and outfielder as specific areas of improvement for the Tigers. The first move Dombrowski made this offseason was to address 3rd base. With little fanfare, the Tigers re-signed Brandon Inge to a 2-year, $11M deal. That's slightly less money than his last contract. At $5.5M/year, Inge is still overpaid. He's not a good hitter, but he's a capable 3rd baseman and one of the better options on the free agent market.

Dombrowski also brought back Jhonny Peralta to play shortstop. With his solid numbers the second half of the season, I figured Peralta would return. His deal is almost identical to Inge's at roughly $5.5M/year.

With Peralta and Inge back in the fold, Dombrowski still needed to address the catcher and outfielder positions. He chose instead to pursue a pitcher. While this was not a specific area of need back in August, the Tigers' bullpen seriously sucked in the later weeks of the season. With reliable Phil Coke possibly moving to the rotation, the Tigers desperately needed to upgrade. So Dombrowski took a gamble on one-year wonder Joaquin Benoit, offering the set-up man a 3 year/$16.5M deal.

At $5.5M/year, Benoit is the 2nd highest paid set-up man in the major leagues. Since Benoit became a full-time reliever in 2006, he's posted the following stats:

2006: 4.86 ERA, 1.331 WHIP, 9.6 K/9innings

2007: 2.85 ERA, 1.171 WHIP, 9.5K/9innings

2008: 5.00 ERA, 1.667 WHIP, 8.6K/9innings (7.0 walks/9innings too!!)

2009: out with Tommy John surgery

2010: 1.34 ERA, 0.680 WHIP, 11.2K/9innings, 1.6 walks/9innings

In his five year career as a reliever, Benoit had just two good seasons. It should be noted, though, that his 2010 season was simply spectacular. Those statistics speak for themselves. If Benoit posts a 2.0 ERA and 1.0 WHIP in 2011 - numbers significantly worse than 2010 - he'd still be a valuable set-up man. For comparison sake, Phil Coke had a 3.76 ERA and 1.438 WHIP in 2010, and he was one of the Tigers' best pitchers. So Benoit was a gamble, but one worth taking, especially for a team with a desperate need.

And speaking of desperate needs, the biggest one of all was catcher. Countless times during the season, the Tigers would get men on base, and then Gerald Laird would step to the plate. He was the rally killer. I watched most of the games on my DVR, and, when I'd see Laird bat, I'd instantly skip forward as commercials followed his at-bat as surely as night follows day. Alex Avila wasn't much better. The Tigers needed to do something to improve that position, and Dombrowski made his intentions known early that Victor Martinez was a prime candidate. While he's no defensive specialist, Martinez hit more RBIs than any catcher in the AL last year. He was behind only Joe Mauer for batting average (.302) and tied for most HRs (20). The dude can hit. While he's had trouble at Comerica Park, he'll still be a tremendous upgrade from Laird.

Late last week, Dombrowski announced that Martinez will spend much of his time as a DH, so he's not a direct replacement for Laird. This may not be a horrible thing, as Alex Avila is a strong defensive catcher. With Martinez as a part-time catcher, he still gives the Tigers a strong switch-hitting bat in the middle of the order. To gain his services, Dombrowski offered him a $50M/4 year deal. Mrs. Nofrownmotown expressed frustration that Dombrowski handed out yet another big money contract (citing the failures of Sheffield, Willis, Robertson), but I don't think DD had a choice. The Tigers needed to do something. Avila is not ready to be the full-time catcher, and the Tigers apparently had money to spend.

The combined 2011 payroll for the four free agents (Inge, Peralta, Benoit, and Martinez) equals $28.25M. Incredibly, that's just 38% of the money coming off the books from 2010. With so much money left to spend, Dombrowski will definitely make a play for one of these outfielders - Carl Crawford, Jayson Werth, and Magglio. Crawford gives the Tigers the added element of speed, but he's also the priciest (commanding a long-term deal of over $20M per year). Maggs provides solid right field defense with a strong bat. While he's five years older than Werth, his offensive numbers for the first half of 2010 compare favorably. He'd also be significantly cheaper. If I were DD, I'd pursue Maggs. It won't excite the fans, but it would give him more flexibility going forward. He could sign Maggs for a 1 or 2 year deal, worth about $12M/year. That still leaves Dombrowski plenty of wiggle room to improve other positions. He could sign another slugger like Vlad Guerrero (not likely) or roll the dice on an oft-injured starting pitcher like Justin Duchscherer (more likely).

2011 could be a very interesting year.