Pat Caputo was on Fox2's Sportsworks two weeks ago, and he said that he believed the Wings would win the Cup this season. (For more rah-rah propaganda, click here.)
I found that pretty shocking. While I do believe the Wings will make the playoffs, I see a major talent disparity between the Wings and the rest of the contenders. It's true that they *almost* won the Cup a mere 16 months ago, but a lot has happened in that time. Most importantly, the young stars on Chicago, Pittsburgh, and Vancouver improved. The Wings, if anything, got worse.
Last season, the Wings struggled with injuries and found themselves out of the playoff hunt for much of the season. It was a bizarre few months where the GMs around the NHL breathed a collective sigh of relief -- "the Wings are human." The big question entering this season is whether last season was an aberration or a sign of things to come.
I'm not going to proclaim doom-and-gloom. The Wings do have a ton of talent on their roster. But I'm also not going to drink the Caputo Kool-aid. Last season signaled the beginning of the decline. For the first time in decades, the Red Wings do not have an infusion of young talent to replace the aging superstars. We all hoped that Kronwall and Ericsson would assume the All-star skates of Nick Lidstrom. Kronwall has proven to be a solid NHL defenseman, but Ericsson may struggle to make the game day roster. After such a promising run in the '09 playoffs, Ericsson's form dipped dramatically last year, and, if this preseason is any indication, his problem with costly turnovers remains (a dreadful -6 plus/minus in just six games).
Zetterberg and Datsyuk are thankfully still in their prime. Their talent alone should carry the Wings to a playoff berth. Yet, their supporting cast is less-than-stellar. The Wings did bring back Jiri Hudler. He may add some scoring punch. But the team has waited two years for Filppula to warrant his $3.5M/year salary hit. His 11 goals last year aint gonna cut it.
General Manager Ken Holland cobbled together a decent enough roster to keep the Red Wings competitive. Aging Mike Modano may not have wheels like he used to, but he should definitely improve the power play. The Wings searched all season for someone to replace Mikael Samuelsson on the point. Modano should fill that void. Bertuzzi still has some gas, and Homer actually is improving with age. Yet, I just don't see how this roster can beat the other contenders in a seven game series.
Holland did not have cap flexibility this offseason to make any drastic moves. Next offseason, only 13 players are on the books - accounting for $43million. It's all the core players you hope will stick around (Datsyuk, Z, Kronwall, Rafalski), with the exception of no Nick Lidstrom. If Nick retires - and I think he will - Holland will have $6million to play with. Even with the extra cash, I doubt the Wings will be able to improve themselves significantly through free agency. They seem to have much better success drafting and developing talent. Unfortunately, other teams have caught up to the Wings in terms of scouting hidden European gems.
Yet, Ken Holland always seems to have an ace up his sleeve. My guess is that he'll keep the Red Wings relevant for as long as he's GM. I just don't know if they're championship-caliber. We may have to wait for the next Yzerman, Fedorov, or Zetterberg... and that may take a while.
... And just to end this on a positive note, here's one of my favorite goals by the Wings most underrated player...
Hmmm, there is some guy that goes by the nickname The Mule. He might be pretty good. That goalie is not bad either.
ReplyDeleteAgreed. I love the Mule, obviously. And, yes, Jimmy Howard was excellent last year. But Z and Datsyuk are the engines for the Wings. But I just don't know how the team can stay elite without reloading some offensive weapons soon.
ReplyDeleteOh man. I totally disagree. I may need to make multiple replies here...
ReplyDelete(Not accounting for officiating, injuries, and NHL scheduling back-to-backs and three-in-four games in The Finals).
Datsyuk-Zetterberg-Holmstrom will be one of the top 5 lines in hockey in the regular season, but in the playoffs, will be the best line in hockey. Period. They have proven that they will outplay a Getzlaf-Perry or Crosby-Malkin or Toews-Kane line in the playoffs. Don't even start with a Sedin or Thornton line in the playoffs.
The Wings third line will also be one of the top 3 third lines in hockey. Simply put, most teams don't have an offensive third line. They might stick an offensive player on the third line, but not a full line of three guys that can reasonably aim to score 20 goals each. And all of these guys can move up to the top two lines in a pinch.
The Wings fourth line, sweet Jesus. Darren Helm is special. He'll probably be flanked by Abdelkader and Eaves. The "Little Red Corvettes" line absolutely has the potential to do what Draper-Maltby-McCarty did in their prime. Draper was better at faceoffs and a better pure shut-down defender, and Maltby was a better chirper, and Mac could obviously fight better. But these guys are faster. Helm is definitely quicker and more disruptive to the entire flow of the game. Abdelkader is a better hitter than Malts, and is a proven clutch timely goal scorer (two goals in two Stanley Cup Finals games, and an NCAA Championship game winner). And Eaves... his chemistry with Helm compares to the Draper-Maltby chemistry, and his upside is that he may be the 'next' Dan Cleary. Don't be shocked if Eaves ends up with a promotion at some point.
The second line is our biggest question mark. And how many teams would trade their second line straight up for ours? The Wings have already won a Stanley Cup with Fil-Mule on our second line, and now they get Bert. Yes please. Yes each of those guys has to answer a question or two (will Fil break out? will Mule be healthy? Will Bert repeat his first healthy, controversy-free, consistent year in a while?), but I'm willing to roll with it.
On defense, yes Nick and Rafalski and Salei are "getting up there". But Babcock is planning on slowing their minutes down. However, Nick and Rafalski don't play a game that is dependent on strength or speed. They are all about smarts and positioning. Babcock is mixing up the lines right now, which I like. You can always go back to Nick-Raf and Kronner-Stu, but let's see if we can get some variety, and maybe help Jonny E develop into a legitimate top 4 guy, like Jiri Fischer made the jump in 2002 playing next to Cheli.
ReplyDeleteI have some fear regarding Jimmy Howard, as the sophomore slump is real for goaltenders. But from what I've read, the kid is the complete opposite of Osgood emotionally. Ozzie is a soap opera. Jimmah is the emotional equivalent of watching paint dry.
Oh, and special teams? Z-Pav-Homer-Nick-Raf. Mule-Fil-Hudler-Kronner-Modano. And Helm-Eaves, Z-Pav, Fil-Cleary on the PK.
Finally, we have the best coach, best team leadership, and best locker room in hockey.
Now, shall we look at the competition?
Chicago scares me the most. Duncan Keith and Jonathan Toews are the real deal. I'll put Toews in the Hall of Fame right now. But they still are coached by Joel Quennville, who is 0-5 in the playoffs against Detroit. God Bless Marty Turco for his work in 1996 and 1998, but he hasn't won anything in the playoffs. And they lost a lot of depth. A healthy Detroit vs a healthy Chicago? I like our chances.
San Jose and Vancouver are the popular picks to win the West. And I'll believe it when I see it. Someone seriously wants to bet on San Jose in the playoffs? Really? Or Roberto Luongo? take a look at his big game record. These teams will win a lot in the regular season, but it will take some injuries or something goofy for them to beat a fully operational Red Wings or Blackhawks.
As for the rest, St Louis and LA are the popular sleepers, and they could rise up with their young talent. I guess we'll have to wait and see.
And in the East, no. Pittsburgh doesn't scare me. Washington doesn't either, and I think they are the new San Jose. Boston... I don't know. Something isn't right there. Philly might be tough, but they are still weak on depth and goaltending. The rest are all pretenders.
I cannot wait for this year for The Wings.
[As for the future, and re-loading the offensive weapons, I'll get to that later...]
Yes, from a talent perspective the Wings do measure up. But I think there's something to be said for youthful vigor. I just didn't see that in the Wings last year. Even Zetterberg admitted to fatigue, and he was in his 20s.
ReplyDeletePerhaps the extra time off will help the team recharge, but I don't see it happening this year.
Furthermore, Datsyuk and Zetterberg haven't tangibly improved since 2008. Henrik Sedin, while ironically in Z's shadow (after Z spent his entire youth in the Sedin's shadow), finally broke through last year. The dude won the Hart. It's safe to say he's improved. And Kane and Toews? Their numbers went up too.
And as much as it pains me to type this, that ragamuffin Crosby scored 51 goals last year. He's better too. It's not a case of the Wings being bad... it's more that the opponents improved.
A few things.
ReplyDeleteZ lost some weight after bulking up. He'll be fresher, and won't be carrying the load as the defensive shut-down center anymore. Both guys weren't right with injuries last year; I think they'll be better.
As for the "old" Wings, let's review. Holmstrom, Modano, Lidstrom, Rafalski, Osgood, and Draper are old. Yes. But Holmstrom has been the slowest guy in the league since he got here. I've been arguing elsewhere that, as a role player, he could play til he's Chelios old. Stick him on the 4th line, and only let him out when you are losing, or on the PP. He can jostle and fight and stick his big ass into goalies faces for the next ten years, and it won't affect his play. Modano is our third line center, being asked to skate 13-14 minutes a night, like Larionov did when he was 40. Not the 22 that Pavel or Z will skate. Nick and Rafalski have been discussed. And Ozzie and Draper are usually going to be watching from the bench and press box, respectively.
To a lesser extent Bertuzzi and Salei are getting up there. But again, these guys are being asked to be role players, not carry the load, as our 2nd line net-front grinder, and our 5th defenseman.
Kane and Toews may have improved, but Chicago as a team may not have. And to that point, congrats to Chicago, they were the best team last year. But the difficulty factor they faced in winning the Cup wasn't too strong. They didn't have to beat a proven favorite. There wasn't a vintage New Jersey, Detroit, Pittsburgh, or Anaheim team that they had to fight through. They beat a feisty overmatched Nashville, some soft "built for the regular season" teams in San Jose and Vancouver, and an overachieving undermanned Philly team. Yes, they are good. But no, they do not scare me if we are relatively healthy.
Vancouver and San Jose (and Washington)... again, I'll believe it when I see it. These teams have yet to prove much of anything in the playoffs, and they've had plenty of time to do it. Yes Sedin can score. Can he lead a team when he's being hounded by Pav or Z, with Lidstrom or Stuart or Kronwall helping out? Can he play defense against Pav? I will take that matchup every single time.
Crosby? Still hasn't done a thing against the Wings. And Malkin only flourished when Pav was out in 2009; he was useless in 2008. These guys still don't have wingers yet. While they added a few puck moving defensemen, they don't scare you as defensive defensemen.
The Wings youth is coming. Let's see how Ericsson, Kindl, Abdelkader, Helm, and Eaves do. Let's also keep an eye on Filppula, too. The Wings are actually pretty loaded with offensive prospects now, but these guys are young and still at least a couple of years away. Gustav Nyquist and Tomas Tatar are probably looking at fighting for a roster spot and top 9 playing time in 2012.