Monday, October 4, 2010

More of the same

No, the title is not in reference to the Lions' 20th consecutive loss at Lambeau Field. It's actually in reference to Dombrowski offering Strikeout King a multi-year contract. According to the article, Inge is "ecstatic". He should be. I doubt any other team will pony up as much cash as the Tigers.

As much as I poke fun at Strikeout King, I don't hate this move. It's a weak year for free agent 3rd basemen. Inge might be top 3 among that group. Furthermore, the team definitely missed Inge when he was out with an injury. The dude and his alarming strikeout rate were still superior to his Triple-A replacement (Scott Sizemore). The article also stated that Dombrowski would like Peralta back, though not necessarily at the $7.25M club option. When Peralta signed that contract with Cleveland, the economics of baseball were much different. The going rate for Peralta (.249BA, 15HR, 81RBI) would likely be in the $6M range.

So what about Inge? How much should he be worth? This past season, Inge hit .247 with 13 HR and 70 RBI. Those numbers are somewhat comparable to Peralta's with the exception that Inge struck out significantly more often (23% of his at-bats vs 17% for Peralta). Peralta's also hit 80+ RBIs the past three seasons and is only 28 years old. Inge surpassed the 80 RBI plateau once and is 33. Inge may have better defensive range than Peralta, but he also plays an easier position.

How does Inge compare to other 3rd basemen? Seattle's Jose Lopez hit .239, 10 HR, and 58 RBI, all numbers are close to Inge's (albeit not as good). Lopez is significantly younger than Inge, but - like Inge - is a one-time All-star. Lopez will make $4.5M if the Mariners pick up his option for 2011. Oakland's Kevin Kouzmanoff matched Inge's offensive output almost exactly, hitting .247, 16 HR, and 71 RBI (and struck out 40 fewer times despite more at-bats). Kouzmanoff earned $3.1M in 2010. The Dodgers' Casey Blake signed as a free agent this year for $6.25M. He finished the year hitting .248, with 17 HR, 64 RBI, and more strikeouts than Inge. Blake is scheduled to make $5.25M in 2011. I'd say Blake is overpaid.

Part of the reason for Blake's inflated salary is age. As a 36 year old, he's entitled to more cash. As a 33 year old, Inge will also demand more cash than Lopez and Kouzmanoff. My guess is that Dombrowski will shoot for a contract between Lopez's $4.5M and Blake's $5.25M. Inge-haters in Detroit will still think he'd be overpaid at, say, $5M/year, but that would be the going rate.

Heck, Johnny Damon made $8M this season, and only hit 8 HR and 51 RBI (he was also a dreadful .209 with RISP). Damon will not be back next season. No doubt signing players 35+ is a crap-shoot. So, assuming Inge and Peralta return to round-out the infield, with Guillen at 2B and Cabrera at 1st, Dombrowski should still have some cash to throw at the deep outfield free agent pool. My guess is that Dombrowski will at least make an offer to Maggs (again, more of the same), but he should also get in the hunt for Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth.

2 comments:

  1. Damon was brutal. But remember... Leyland re-signed Neifi Perez after a brutal season. Anything can happen.

    Side stat: The Tigers are 11-24 in the last week of the regular season since Leyland became manager.

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  2. Dombrowski apparently told Damon he's not getting another deal. Let's hope that's true. Perhaps the worst signing since Gerald Laird.

    And speaking of Laird, will he be in baseball next year? I can't imagine there's much of a market for a .200 hitter with no power. He wasn't even that great behind the plate. With all that said, I wouldn't HATE for Laird to be the backup next season, as long as they have someone better than Avila as the starter. He'd also have to sign for the minimum. Anything more is a waste of money.

    And what about Bonderman? His recent implosion certainly didn't help his cause. 5.5 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. Yikes. No thanks. Please no mas.

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