Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Winter's a comin'

In a handful of months, baseball's big GMs will gather for the Winter Meetings. This is where the major trades and free agent signings begin in earnest. The Tigers, with $55M coming off the books, figure to be big players.

While it would be absolutely sweet for the Tigers to make a splash signing Carl Crawford, I have a strange feeling that they should focus more of their energy internally. Admittedly, The Tigers of '06 proved that free agents and trades can lead a team to greatness. The Gambler, Maggs, Polanco, Todd Jones, Guillen, and Pudge were the cornerstones that season, and they were all acquired via trade or free agency.

Yet, the Tigers quickly fizzled out. In the five years since, they've yet to reach the playoffs, let alone make another World Series. Looking at the teams with consistent success - Yankees, Red Sox, Twins, Phillies - they've built their core from the draft and later added complimentary pieces through free agency/trades. The Yankees are the best example. While they're known as free-wheeling big-spenders, the true backbone of their team for the past 16 seasons (in which they've made the playoffs an astounding 15 times) was Jeter, Posada, Pettitte, Rivera, and, most recently, Cano. All those players were drafted and developed by the Yanks. They've had a handful of free agent sluggers rotate into the lineup, with varying results (Giambi, Matsui, Williams, etc), but the clutch performers more often than not were the Yankee draft picks. The teams' Achilles heel during his run is starting pitching. They've thrown big money at an army of players who typically come up short. Carl Pavano, Mike Mussina, Randy Johnson, and even Jeff Weaver all seemed primed for greatness in pinstripes, but they underperformed.

The Yankee fans would be the first to say that free agency is a gamble. The reliable players - the players that make a team great - are the draft picks. And, for the record, I realize that most Latin players are technically signed as free agents. Since they're not eligible for the draft, teams sign them at 17 and 18 years of age. They've got to be developed under the farm system, so I lump them in with the draft picks.

This brings me back to the Tigers. They had a chance this season to get a look at most of their top farm prospects. The results were better than I would've expected. They've got an excellent-fielding shortstop in Danny Worth. Will Rhymes showed a penchant for Polanco-like skill with both the bat and glove. And Casper Wells and Brennen Boesch displayed absurd power during stretches of the season. As a result, I find Wells and Boesch the most intriguing.

The Tigers need one of them to make the leap to the next level. It's not out of the realm of possibility for Wells or Boesch to hit 20HR and 90RBI next season. A player with those numbers could command $10M on the free agent market. Yet, Wells and Boesch still make under $1M. That, folks, is value and would free up cash for other glaring needs. The Tigers have many. The Tigers' management should do all they can to get those two players ready for the bigs in 2011. Boesch, who spent the entire second half in a slump, is the trickier proposition. He hit an All-Star pace for two months. Then he seemingly lost his confidence or perhaps opposing pitchers figured him out. Either way, I begged for the Tigers to send him down to Toledo - just to get him out of the spotlight. He stayed up with the big club and struggled to the very end. An article on MLive yesterday described Boesch's offseason regimen. Boesch said he'd "leave no stone unturned." This is exactly the type of overthinking that I was worried about. I'd vastly prefer Boesch to spend a month in Ibiza, forgetting about baseball. I suppose we'll see if his strategy works next April.

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