Why does my stomach sink when the Wings don't win in regulation? Statistically speaking, they should have just as good a chance to win in overtime, right? If you've read this blog before, you know I love stats, and this one's a doozy:
Since 2000, the Red Wings won only 5 of their 21 overtime playoff games.
That's a 24% winning percentage. For a team that's won four Stanley Cups in eleven years, that's pretty shocking. What's the deal? Why do they crumble in OT? It can't be mere coincidence. I honestly have no concrete evidence. Only theories.
Perhaps the best theory is that the wings press too hard in overtime. Desperately seeking the win, the defense pushes forward, pinches in, and often gets caught out of position, leading to a quick counter. Last night was the perfect example of this. The Red Wings dominated the majority of the overtime, while the Ducks packed it in. While the Red Wings piled up shots and opportunities, the Ducks stayed in position and bided their time. Even with that strategy in mind, it's surprising to think it's worked so often against the Wings. There has to be something more.
Los Tigres
Props to the Tigers for ending an 8-game losing streak to the Tribe this weekend. On Saturday, one of my favorite whipping boys, Adam Everett, after grounding out with the bases loaded, hit a grand slam in his next at-bat. Of course, Zach Miner and the vaunted Tiger relief patrol proceeded to lose the 5 run lead, but clutch hitting by Anderson and Granderson secured the win late. With speedy Anderson continuing his solid run at the plate (.369 on-base %, 3rd on the team), it's only a matter of time before he's leading off. Granderson, with such extra-base power, could certainly hit later in the lineup.
Wings: I feel exactly the same sinking feeling when a game goes into OT. The only OT playoff game I actually remember was by Stevie Y against St. Louis. I would venture to guess that their winning percentage is less than 24% in OT games in the regular season, and even worse in shoot outs. Which is as counter-intuitive as it gets.
ReplyDeleteTigers: Are the local pundits speaking at all to the bullpen woes? It's DREADFUL!
Honestly, the Tigers bullpen is no more under fire now than in previous years. People are so used to the bullpen blowing wins that it's an old bit. They take their frustration out on individual players, specifically Lyon. To a lesser extent, Rincon and Robertson. Folks are cautiously optimistic with Zumaya back, though nobody has much faith in Rodney.
ReplyDeleteI actually would consider roller coaster jones if he would come back. hopfully zumaya can get back to 2006 form
ReplyDeleteHeck, I'd take roller coaster Jones too. Anybody is better than Lyon, Rapada, and Rincon. Those guys are dreadful. Thankfully, Zumaya has pitched well, and Perry has shown signs of decency. I still think he should be in AA ball, but, well, that's old news.
ReplyDelete