Moving Forward

It's a good sign when I can use the phrase "moving forward" in September, and not refer to the next Tiger season. The Tigers are on pace to make noise this season. They're in the midst of a 10-3 run, which gave them some much-needed breathing room over the Tribe and ChiSox.

Strangely, the Tigers compiled the 10-3 record with weak starting pitching, no Brennen Boesch, no Carlos Guillen, and a healthy Brandon Inge. This is baseball. It doesn't always make sense.

With a 5.5 game lead over Cleveland, folks in Detroit are breathing easier. Yet, after the collapses in '06 and, especially, '09, nobody is ceding the division to Detroit. You'd be hard-pressed to find a Detroiter who's confident in this team. Even now. But I'm not gonna act like the sky is falling. Despite the issues with Scherzer, Penny, and Porcello, the bullpen suddenly looks strong. And, most impressive of all, the Tigers are getting some clutch hits. It's a strange and welcome sight.

This stretch run will largely depend, though, on the pitching. Overall, the Tigers rank 22nd in ERA. The top contending teams all rank higher, with Philly at #1. The Yankees, considered a weaker staff than Detroit, clock in at #10. The stats don't lie. The Tigers got problems with their arms.

Last time out, Verlander won his 20th game but gave up 4 runs. For Verlander, that's a chink in the armor. He also only lasted 6.0 innings. Still, in his five prior starts, he only allowed 8 total runs with a 1.96 ERA. That's stellar. No worries about JV.

Things start to get murky with Scherzer. For August, Scherzer posted a 5.45 ERA, highlighted by giving up 7 runs to KC in just 3.0 innings. Yet, he did well in his two prior starts yielding just 3 runs over 12 innings. The Tigers desperately need Scherzer to stabilize. It could be that Kansas City simply has his number. While they're a last place team, they do have a formidable offense. They're 4th in the AL in batting average. Against KC, Scherzer's got a 5.66 ERA. Against Minnesota, he's 5.27. Yet, he's 1.64 against the ChiSox and 3.72 against Cleveland. Scherzer's next start is Sunday night against the ChiSox. It's a high-profile game on ESPN2. It should tell us a lot about what to expect from this guy.

Now, the Tigers are on high-alert for Porcello. While Scherzer's been inconsistent, Porcello's been more consistent... but consistently poor. He did technically keep the Tigers in the game yesterday against KC. Over 7 innings, he gave up 4 runs. Yet, those 7.0 innings were the most he's lasted since July. His August ERA was 6.82, including an 8 run, 11 hit shellacking by Cleveland. The normally sedate Dan Dickerson and Jim Price pointed out yesterday that lefties teed off against him. For the season, Porcello's given up 13 HR, 59 runs to lefties. They're hitting a robust .337. That does not inspire confidence going forward. Especially when the top teams in the East can load their lineup with lefties (BoSox) or switch-hitters (NYY) or both (CLE). There's no easy answer for the Kid. This season, he's followed a poor month with a stellar one. In July, he posted 5 wins and a sterling 3.06 ERA. If that trend continues, expect a strong month of September, and then the Tigers should stash him in the basement in October.

With Porcello and Scherzer throwing blanks, Tigers' new acquisition Doug Fister has proven to be a steal so far. He came to Detroit with a stellar ERA (3.33) and awful W/L record (3-12). He's actually improved on that ERA in his 6 Detroit starts (2.97) and already equaled his Seattle win total. On Tuesday, Fister threw six perfect innings. The stadium was abuzz. He doesn't overpower batters, but he proves that effective pitching ain't always about velocity. He alternated locations and speed and, in general, kept the KC offense (which powered 18 hits off the Tigers the night before) off the bases. Also, Mrs. Nofrownmotown pointed out that Fister is now the handsomest Tiger.

Did the Tigers trade for Fister or Guy Pearce?

The bullpen, meanwhile, no longer requires two tubes of Rolaids. The key contributor in the turnaround is Phil Coke. After a hot-but-mostly-cold string of games as a starter, Coke returned to the bullpen mid-season. He struggled early, but his numbers recently... well... they sparkle. Coke appeared in 13 games in August. He allowed just 10 total hits and ZERO runs. Nada. Not a one. Oh, and he allowed just 2 walks and struck out 20. That's a 0.00 ERA for August, folks. Benoit's fared almost as well. After a troubling May, Benoit's posted a 2.61 ERA in June, a 1.17 ERA in July, and a 1.80 ERA in August. The Coke/Benoit/Valverde 1-2-3 punch served the Tigers well in this recent run. Soon, they get Alburquerque back. With the Amazing Al, a somewhat effective Schlereth, and the Coke/Benoit/Valverde triumvirate, the Tigers' bullpen is no longer a joke.