Brian Rafalski surprised the Red Wing faithful last night as news leaked of his potential retirement. With just one year left on his contract, most thought Rafalski would play his final year and then perhaps hang up his skates. Yet, after a year of back surgery, knee surgery, and back spasms, it's possible Rafalski decided to listen to his body.
This is a somewhat shocking move because Rafalski is leaving $6million on the table. It wasn't like Rafalski's skills diminished sharply either. He finished fifth on the team in points with 48, and he was a +11. My guess is that his disappointing playoff performance left a bitter taste in his mouth and likely hastened his decision.
Throughout the 11 playoff games, Rafalski failed to make an impression. This is not always a bad thing for a defenseman. I recall horrible giveaways from Ericsson and Stuart that led to scoring chances and often goals. Rafalski didn't have that back-breaking mistake. But he didn't offer much positive either. His career as a Red Wing was marked by excellence. Just fifteen months ago, he starred on the grandest of stages for the US Olympic hockey team. Rafalski was perhaps the US's best player and the best defenseman in the tournament. Maybe that offseason back surgery took its toll on his slapshot. Or maybe it's just significantly harder to skate. As a back surgery veteran myself, I know that recovery times are often measured in years, not months. Regardless, the Red Wings now have a large hole to fill.
And it could get bigger.
Of the Red Wings' top 6 d-men, only Kronwall and Stuart are sure to return. Lidstrom is mulling retirement. Ericsson and Salei are unrestricted free agents, and Rafalski is gone. With Rafalski's $6million off the books, let's play the GM game.
Next season, the Wings have roughly $40million committed to 14 players. Last season, the salary cap was $59.35million. Let's assume the salary cap goes up to $60million. Rumblings say it may go up more, but let's keep it at a round number like $60million. That leaves the Wings with $20million in cap space. This is the first season since the lockout the Wings have had any room to maneuver.
Among the forwards, the Wings have to fill four spots. Modano, Draper, Eaves, and Miller are unrestricted free agents. Eaves and Miller are a good fit with the Wings, and I think they want to stay. I expect them to return at slightly higher salaries. I'm not convinced Draper wants to hang 'em up yet, so I bet he'll return, but at a slightly reduced rate. Modano retires.
Forward Spot 1: Eaves at $900,000
Forward Spot 2: Miller at $750,000
Forward Spot 3: Draper at $1.3M
Forward Spot 4: ???
That leaves $17M left to spend.
On defense, four spots are open. Lidstrom and Salei return for contracts equal to this season. Ericsson rejects the Wings' offer and signs elsewhere for crazy money.
Defense Spot 1: Lidstrom at $6.2M
Defense Spot 2: Salei at $1.1M
Defense Spot 3: ???
Defense Spot 4: ???
In goal, Ozzie resigns as the backup for $1.2M.
In this scenario, the Wings need to fill out one forward spot, and two d-men spots. They've got $8.5M left to spend. With Rafalski out of the fold, the Wings lose a premier defenseman. It's more likely the Wings will spend the lionshare of their cash on defense, especially considering they led the league in goals last year and were somewhat porous on D.
Among the unrestricted free agents, Ed Jovanovski (PHO), Andrei Markov (MTL), Eric Brewer (TB), and Kevin Bieksa (VAN) lead the pack. Those are all fine choices and would definitely help the Wings. Yet, the Wings could make the bigger splash with the restricted free agents. I don't recall the Wings ever making a play at the restricted free agent, but, with $8.5M of wiggle room, why not?
Sticking with defenseman, the top restricted free agent is also exactly what the Wings need -- Shea Weber. This isn't news to folks who regularly read this blog, but I think Weber is the best young defenseman in the game. He's the new era Pronger. In my dream scenario, the Wings make a massive play for Weber, something like 10 years/$70M. Apparently, Weber wants to remain a Predator, and that organization ain't stupid. They know what he's worth, and I anticipate him staying. So Weber is out of the discussion (though I still hope the Wings pursue).
A less expensive option is Zach Bogosian from Atlanta. As an Eastern Conference team, we rarely get to see the Thrashers, but Holland apparently wanted to pry Bogosian from Atlanta earlier this season. He's not performed terribly well, but he's just 20 years old. He could thrive in the veteran-laden Red Wing system. Also available is Drew Doughty of the LA Kings. Like the Preds, the Kings aren't stupid, and they know Doughty is the cornerstone of that defense. He's going to stay in LA.
Based on Ken Holland's track record, it's still more likely the Wings will sign a veteran to a 1 or 2 year deal than chase a restricted free agent. But with cap space, we can dream...
On offense, I'm not terribly enamored with many of the unrestricted forward options. The biggest name is Brad Richards of Dallas. Yet, he's paycheck last year was $7.8M. That's more than Datsyuk. What's he going to want from Detroit? In the restricted player pool, one name stands out above all others -- Steven Stamkos. At 21 years of age, Stamkos is already one of the best scorers in the game. With Yzerman as his GM, I can't see any scenario where Stamkos doesn't return to the Lightning. Other options include Zach Parise and Andrew Ladd. Both players can put the puck in the net. Ladd is just 24 and may not break the bank. In the past 3 seasons, he's raised his goal total from 15, 17, and 29, respectively. As an Atlanta Thrasher, he may be available.
My prediction for the remaining open roster spots:
Forward Spot 4: Michael Nylander at $2.3M
Defense Spot 3: Kevin Bieksa at $4.8M
Defense Spot 4: Brendan Smith (makes the big club) under contract at $875K
The Wings remain a few million under the cap and deal for a big name during the season.
God I love Rosterbating.
ReplyDeleteLet me start with Rafalski. The Wings absolutely do not win the Cup in 08 without him. He remains underrated in his importance. However, he was breaking down quickly, and the Wings would not have gotten anywhere near the value of a $6M cap hit from him. I hope Mr I gives him a big retirement check as a thank you. Sad, but true. The Wings will be better of without his cap hit next year.
Before I get to FA/Trade possibilities, a few things I've heard:
Modano is strongly leaning towards retirement. Drapes is also leaning towards retirement. If he did return, it would be a sizable, not slight, paycut. He'll get $650-$750K, in line with Miller's salary.
Mursak and Emmerton are out of minor league options. If they don't make the club, they need to be put on waivers, and would likely be lost (similar to how Mathias Ritola was lost to Stevie Y and Tampa). Holland has stated that Mursak has a spot on the team next year, and Emmerton (like Ritola last year) will have a legitimate chance to win a spot in camp.
Eaves and Miller (who want to return), and Mursak and Emmerton could easily be the final four forwards on the team. Eaves and Mursak are somewhat locks. Miller and Emmerton would be on the bubble if the Wings sign someone else.
Additionally, Tomas Tatar has the skills to play in the NHL right now, and he is a legitimate threat to make the team. Think Hudler's skill set and size, but Eaves speed. My best guess is that he needs another year of strength, seasoning, etc., but don't count him out either.
Finally, there are whispers that Hudler's 2.875M contract is on the trade block.
In goal, I think Ozzie will return if his groin lets him, and he will also get a sizable, not slight, pay cut. $750,000 is the going rate for an ordinary backup. And there is a buyers market for backup goalies, so Ozzie has no leverage.
The Wings are high on JonnyE, Kindl, and Brendan Smith. They believe these guys will eventually be top 4 guys. Just not sure how soon. Obviously need 2 of them to step up soon to replace Nick and Rafalski.
Because of the limited options on D in UFA (and the difficulty in getting an RFA or trade completed), I think Jonny E will return. I can see him getting close to $3M, which is overpaying, but it's the market. I'm hoping for a 2-year deal, like Jimmy. I think it's wise to see what he can do if he's promoted to the #4 spot. He'll be playing nightly with Stu, Nick, or Kronner. If he does improve his consistancy and cut his mental mistakes, he will be a long-term top 4 guy, and could very well replace Rafalski's contributions in 2010.
Kindl/Salei. Holland was pushing Babcock to play Kindl over Salei down the stretch and into the playoffs, but Babcock stuck with Salei. Kindl will be a regular next year, period. Babcock may also decide not to re-sign Salei, even with Rafalski's retirement. Salei also made $750K. He will not be getting a raise.
Finally, I have heard that Holland has quietly told some folks that Brendan Smith, like Mursak, has a spot on the team next year. He might not want to advertise it to make Smith work hard in training camp.
As for potential additions, I know that Ken Holland will kick the tires on Weber and Doughty, but it'll be a shock to see either of those guys leave Nash/LA.
ReplyDeleteI'd be surprised to see Holland sign an RFA to an offer sheet. I'd expect there to be a trade for an RFA instead of an offer sheet signing.
Unless a D-man essentially falls in our lap due to wanting to play in Detroit (like Hossa, or someone returning home, like Rafalski or Drake or Modano), I just don't see Holland making a big FA signing on D. He'll find a cheap replacement for Salei, maybe even waiting until August, and that's about it. And then he'll see what's available or needed during the year.
At forward, they could definitely use a second liner, but I don't see any obvious fits. Some nice players, but nobody that jumps out at me. Maybe RFA Zach Parise, but that has it's own issues.
Based on all this, I really think the team will stay put, and just improve from within. They'll save their cap money for perhaps a trade near the deadline, instead of forcing a fit in the off-season.
Boring. I know. But that's how Ken Holland operates.
Interesting notes about Mursak and Emmerton. Those guys would be nice, cheap alternatives. I don't expect them to pour in 20 goals, but they may supply Eaves-level production.
ReplyDeleteI'd be pretty surprised if both Ozzie and Draper retire. I'm thinking next year will be their swan song.
You're right that, in the post cap era, Holland tends to play it conservatively. Yet, he's never had this much cap space to work with. If Rafalski does retire (and it looks like it's all-but-official), I'm betting he'll try to land a big name defenseman this summer. And I'd classify Bieksa as a "big name" although he's no All-star.
I added Nylander to my original blog due to the Swedish connection.
pparently, things have changed in Draper's head. Immediately after the season, he was talking about family being important, and his kids and wife have sacrificed a lot for him and it was time to go home. But now it looks like he wants to come back for one more year.
ReplyDeleteAlso, it's been stated a few places that as soon as Drapes retires, he will become the Red Wings first Strength and Conditioning Coach. So he'll still be around one way or another.
Here's my sleeper for a guy the Wings sign: Ed Jovonovski. He's from Windsor. He played with and is apparently good friends with Bert, who loves it here and wouldn't be shy about telling him how great the locker room is. That might be enough to get him at a home-town discount.
Further, Phoenix cannot guarantee him anything more than one year in Phoenix. That franchise is still in limbo, and might move next year. It might be one year in Phoneix, and one year in Seattle, KC, Quebec City, or Hamilton.
Jovo adds some size and grit, and has some experience playing the Holmstrom roll on the powerplay, too. He is not a great puck carrying guy, but the Wings can use Nick and Kronner, and then give some experience to Kindl, Brendan Smith and Jonny E.
Jovanovski would be a good match. I can't imagine he'd be a long-term commitment either, given his age next season (35).
ReplyDeleteHolland tends to pursue the veterans anyway.
I read this morning that Osgood is leaning more toward retirement, which was a surprise to me. Ah well. He was gone most of this season anyway.
I also read that we shouldn't expect Holland to even make an offer on a restricted free agent. He'd vastly prefer to just make a trade. So the chances of Shea Weber coming to the Red Wings is just about nil.
I'd wager that playoff teams are not likely to part with any solid defenseman. It's the bottom-feeder teams that are the likelier targets. That moves Zach Bogosian up the list. Another possibility is Sergei Gonchar from Ottawa. His point totals have plummeted recently, and he's still owed $5.5M for two seasons. But I'm sure Ottawa would be thrilled for Holland to take that contract for virtually nothing in return. Gonchar - on a veteran winning team like the Wings - could rejuvenate his career, Larry-Murphy-style. Is the gamble worth $5.5M/year?
There's also Mark Streit from the Islanders. He's owed $4.1M each year for the next two seasons. He was on the All-star team in '09 and has put up incredible numbers for a defenseman. Playing for the Islanders, he doesn't get much pub. And, since he sat out all of 2010-11, the Islanders might be willing to let him go.
Looking big picture, our forwards (with a tweak perhaps) are fine. We found our goalie last year. So this is the year that we can give the defense some leeway.
ReplyDeleteLet's also not forget what Nick Lidstrom has become. He's still elite, absolutely. I've seen a stat that his ice time led to him having the toughest competition in the league (by far, but I can't find the link at Puck Prospectus, I think). Incidentally, Salei ranked 2nd or 3rd from last, so Babcock REALLY trusted Nick and REALLY DIDN'T trust Salei.
But Nick can't physically handle the wear and tear like he used to. Babcock saved him this year by giving him fewer minutes in the playoffs, and taking him off the PK in the playoffs (he went from 2:40 minutes in the regular season to 0:30 minutes in the playoffs). And he's been the best PK defenseman in the league for the last decade.
This may honestly be the year that we need to give him some nights off (on back to backs). And it'll be curious to see if he stays off the PK.
Based on that... it looks like getting Gonchar is a bit redundant, and I especially wouldn't want to pay him that salary over two years.
Since we're assuming Weber/Doughty aren't walking through that door, my priority is to give every chance to Ericsson, Kindl, and Smith to play.
But that really leaves four guys on the defense that we're really unsure about. How much does Nick have left in the tank? How many minutes will he get, and against first line guys, and on the PK? Can Ericsson handle top 4 minutes, and top 3 PK minutes? Can Kindl or Smith handle top 4 PK minutes? Will Kindl or Smith hit a wall as a top 6?
I've got to think that a rugged, grittier, Stuart-type defenseman that can eat minutes would be a better fit with this club. And because of the uncertainty amongst those four guys, I've got to think that this is not the year to take a chance on a guy returning from injury like Streit or Markov.
That might also point to not acquiring Bogosian if he's a bit of an uncertainty... having four youngsters (counting Ericsson) plus Nick.
But, they can leave Smith in the minors for one more year, at least.