The Draw

I watched about 30 minutes of the World Cup draw, and... wow... what a bizarre event. Charlize Theron hosted along with some other clean-shaven South African dude. When they introduced him, he and Charlize greeted each other with two kisses. The crowd went wild "Saved By the Bell"-style. Then they spent about twenty minutes "explaining" the process. I use the quotes because it was done like an infomercial:

Clean-shaven dude: "The theeerty two naytions are sehparated into four putz."
Charlize: "But aren't some countries rewarded for past success?"
Clean-shaven dude: "Thet's cuhrrect, Charlize..."

I wish I had more dialogue fresh on the brain, but I skipped forward. They then stretched the broadcast out even further with extended introductions for random celebrities and athletes who would help with the draw. All told, they needed ten people to "help" pull a ping-pong ball out of a bowl. All the helpers were South African, except one - Sir David Beckham. Wherever there's a TV camera and soccer ball, you'll find Becks.

Finally, the draw. After assigning each of the seeded teams into their own group, the first team picked was Mexico. They earned the enviable spot in South Africa's group. The next team, grouped with Argentina, was South Korea. Then they picked the US which put them with England. ESPN had a live feed from a NYC bar where the local yanks cheered. A half-hour before, a possibly tipsy Rob Stone reported from the bar that the patrons were chanting "We want England! We want England!" They got their wish.

The entire Group C: England, USA, Algeria, Slovenia. (Click here for the other groups.)

Overall, the US drew an extremely favorable group, though I'm somewhat ambivalent about England. The US does not match up well with the Northern European squads. The US tries to emulate the English style with high pace, stout defense, and controlled passing. The problem is that England does it better. If the US were lined up against... say... Argentina, Bradley would employ the bunker defense and counter. That would likely yield a more favorable result. Against England, Bob will try to match their possession. My guess is that England will not have much difficulty breaking down the US defense, and it'll take a herculean effort from Timmy Howard to earn a draw.

The one benefit to facing England is that the US players will not be intimidated. Dempsey, Spector, Howard, and Jozy see these guys every week. If the US was matched against Brazil, I think they'd cower. Who wouldn't? England's a different story. With a full-strength side, the US could get a result. With no Davies, a hobbled Onyewu, and a questionable Maurice Edu and Jermaine Jones, the US is in trouble.

But they can still advance. The key to the tournament will be games 2 and 3. Bradley should focus his efforts on Slovenia and Algeria, because they're infinitely more winnable. Now, I certainly won't claim to be an expert on either side, but, based on qualifying results and roster, the teams aren't in the same class as England.

Slovenia has a player at West Brom, another at Udinese, and their star striker is at Cologne. They qualified from a group featuring the Czechs and Poland. Not world beaters but a quality side. Among the other UEFA qualifyers, though, the US's draw could've been much worse (France, Serbia, or Portugal).

Based on club-affiliation alone, Algeria has a shade more impressive roster than Slovenia. A large number of Algerians play in the Bundesliga, while a handful of others ply their trade at such top clubs as Rangers, Lorient, Lazio, and Portsmouth. Algeria topped Egypt in qualifying. Egypt, by the way, got thumped by the US 3-0 in the Confed Cup - perhaps the most dominant win by the US in a major tournament (Sure, the 2-1 win over Spain earned more headlines, but the Spanish controlled much of that match - Egypt got steamrolled).

Slovenia and Algeria won't be shaking in their boots facing the Americans. They'll likely circle the US game as a must-win. It's a fairly even field. My only hope is the US gets healthy... and quick. During the past four years, Bob Bradley trotted out every American who's worn soccer cleats, but he's still has got no depth up top. The Charlie Davies injury burned a hole in the roster. Who will partner with Altidore? Conor Casey? No thanks. And who will step in on defense? Spector and Cherundolo are anything but consistent. The bottom line is that the US will have to, once again, overachieve to advance.

They've done it before, so here's to a repeat performance!