Say It Aint So

Apparently, Klinsmann didn't want the job.

A mere two days after a story leaked about the US talking to Klinsmann, Sunil Gulati offered a four year extension to incumbent Bob Bradley. I suppose Gulati is content with more of the same. He likely thought a change in coach would simply be change-for-change's-sake. Often the change-for-change's-sake ends in disaster (see: Millen, Matt). Yet, it's occasionally necessary for a team to reach the next level (see: Brown, Larry).

The US team is in a precarious position. The core of the team - Donovan and Dempsey - will be in their early 30s for the next World Cup. The heart of the backline, Oguchi Onyewu, still has not recovered from his torn patellar tendon from a year ago, and the bright young striker, Charlie Davies, may never recover from his near-fatal car crash. Perhaps the best thing about the current US roster is Bob's son, Michael, who, at age 23, has shown signs of becoming a world-class central midfielder. The cupboard is relatively bare.

Jozy Altidore may fare well against Concacaf opposition but struggles mightily against the big boys of Europe. Tim Howard should be fine in net by 2014, but who will play in front of him? The US youth ranks suffered a major drop since the halcyon days of Freddy Adu. There's no Neymar waiting in the wings:

Now, I don't want to give the impression that the sky is falling. The US team does have its share of young talent entering their prime - Benny Feilhaber, Stuart Holden, Maurice Edu, etc. The problem is that the team has no balance. They're a team of midfielders, without a single playmaker in the lot. The defense remains in shambles. And to make matters worse, teams that retain managers for a 2nd World Cup tend to fail miserably on their second trip (see France, Italy 2010 or USA 2006). There's no simple reason for this dip in form, except that teams may become complacent with the same manager. I expect Bob's team to suffer the same fate.

The US benefited from a great draw this time around. With an aging team, an unimaginative coach, and a likely more difficult draw, the US will be lucky to get a point in 2014. It'll be a repeat of 2006. It's entirely possible that Klinsmann would suffer the same fate, but I maintain he'd at least breath some new life into this roster. Perhaps he'd also teach the forwards a thing or two about scoring. Just a thought.

¡Ay Dios Mio!

Papa Grande's more of a Big Potato lately.

Like most of his fellow Tigers, the Big Potato has struggled mightily since the All-star break. The numbers say it all:

Pre-All-star -- 0.92 ERA

Post-All-star -- 7.80 ERA

Eesh. Now, it hasn't been all bad. The Big Potato did sprinkle in a few fine games in between his flare-ups. One thing remains consistent, though - The Big Potato does not fare well outside of the 9th inning. If you've followed the Tigers at all this season, you know that. I'd imagine Jim Leyland, who hopefully follows the Tigers as much as I do, would recognize this. But yesterday he once again called on Valverde in the 8th inning. The Tigers had 2-run lead. Perry started the 8th, notching 2 outs while allowing a single. The man on first immediately stole second once Valverde took the mound. Then he gave up a double. 3-2. Then another double. 3-3. Then a wild pitch. So, the winning run was now on 3rd. Valverde dug deep and got that final out to end the threat.

But the damage was done. The Tigers could not score another run. Brennen Boesch had a chance to be a hero with two outs, man-on-second in the 10th. Pop-up. Then Laird was up with 1 out, man-on-second in the 11th. Double play. Eesh. The Royals won it on a home run in the 12th.

So the Era of Good Feelings (i.e. the last five games) is now finished. The Tigers head back on the road where they've had as much success as Biff with Lorraine at the Enchantment Under the Sea dance. For a few fleeting moments, it appeared the Tigers might crawl above .500, but, alas, they're back to one game under.

The Tigers are nine games behind the Twins. While they're not mathematically out of if, they are at least mentally out it. After losing to the Twins in such glorious fashion last year (and, it seems, every year), the Tigers would need to believe they can make a run. I doubt there's a single player on that team who truly believes they have a shot. So, I just hope the Tigers play respectable ball the rest of the way. I hope Austin Jackson remains a solid lead-off guy. I hope Boesch rediscovers his swing and nails that game-winner at some point. I hope Cabrera continues his tear. And I hope Porcello settles into a groove. Those young players could provide a solid foundation for 2011, where the Tigers have significant money to spend.

What if?

Where have ye gone, Robert Fick?
Imagine a world with no free agency or trades... where teams drafted players, and those players stayed with the same team throughout their career. What would the Tigers' roster look like? How would it compare to the bevy of free agents and traded commodities that comprise the current roster? Let's take a look...

(Players in BOLD appeared in at least one All-star game)

------------

Catcher: Alex Avila (.214, 5 HR, 20 RBI)

1B: Jeff Larish (waived this season - picked up by Oakland - 3 AB, 0 Hits)

2B: Will Rhymes (.320, 0 HR, 6 RBI)

SS: Omar Infante (Traded to Cubs, now with Atlanta, having career year - .350, 6 HR, 35 RBI)

3B: Brandon Inge (.262, 8 HR, 50 RBI)

OF: Curtis Granderson (Traded to Yanks, disappointing season to date - .244, 13 HR, 38 RBI)

OF: Andres Torres (Released by Tigers, eventually landing with Giants - .284, 13 HR, 51 RBI)

OF: Cody Ross (Traded to Dodgers, now with Giants - .267, 11 HR, 58 RBI)

DH: Brennen Boesch (.273, 14 HR, 59 RBI)

SP: Justin Verlander (14-8, 3.65 ERA)

SP: Jair Jurrjens (Traded to Braves - 5-4, 3.91 ERA)

SP: Rick Porcello (5-11, 5.76 ERA)

SP: Jeff Weaver (Traded to Yankees, now with Dodgers - 5-1, 5.35 ERA)

SP: Luke French (Traded to Mariners - 2-4, 4.57 ERA)

RP: Ryan Perry (2-4, 4.29 ERA, 15 Holds)

RP: Joel Zumaya (2-1, 2.58 ERA, 1.1 WHIP, 11 Holds)

RP: Fernando Rodney (4-1, 3.91 ERA, 21 Holds)

Closer: Francisco Cordero (Traded to Rangers where he starred, now with Reds - 3-4, 3.83 ERA, 34 Saves (284 career saves))

----------

Let's skip the position players for a moment. The starting pitchers are not horrible. Verlander is one of top 10 pitchers in the AL. Jurrjens is an okay #2. Porcello has potential to be very good. Weaver and French are currently long-relievers but my guess is that they'd be starters on the Tigers. I'd have no problem seeing either French or Weaver take Bonderman's spot. Galarraga is probably a notch above both Weaver and French, though it's not by much. From a talent standpoint, the starting 5 are not terribly different than the current roster.

The bullpen is also about the same. Rodney and Coke are comparable, as are Cordero and Valverde. Cordero's had an amazing career (3-time All-star). Valverde, meanwhile, is younger and may eventually reach Cordero's heights.

So the pitching staff is fair. They're not a playoff caliber staff by any means, but at least they are legit major league players. I wish I could say the same for...

The position players. Try as I might, I could not find a single quality first baseman that was discovered by the Tigers. In this bizarro baseball world, my guess is that Jeff Larish would be the starter (or perhaps out-of-baseball Eric Munson). On the plus-side, Infante and Inge get the bold treatment, but, to be fair, both were controversial All-star picks. Inge made it in on the strength of the final spot online vote. Inge and Infante, though, are definite MLB-caliber players. The jury is still out on Rhymes. The outfield is a bit of a mess, with only Curtis Granderson as a certified good player. Cody Ross and Andres Torres are journeymen at best. Both, however, are more MLB-ready than Don Kelly, Ryan Raburn, or Casper Wells.

As for DH, the best option was Brennen Boesch. I like the kid's bat, but he's obviously unproven. This Tiger team would be decent defensively, but absolutely woeful at the plate. The simple truth is they have no sluggers. Boesch may eventually become a consistent RBI producer, but he's extremely green. They're a lineup of middling bats and heavy strikeouts.

So what can I conclude from all this?

For one thing, Tiger fans should be thankful for Dave Dombrowski. He's had his share of crappy picks and trades, but this team was in absolute shambles when he took over. Looking at the pre-Dombrowski drafts is laughable. The Tigers missed on every single pick, from the 1st round on down. Dombrowski's drafts focused almost exclusively on pitchers and that shows. His position players are weak, but he's had moderate-to-good success with the arms (Verlander, Zoom, Porcello).

The players from the pre-Dombrowski era are mostly out of baseball. Those guys would be in their late 20s and 30s right now - the backbone of the team. Dombrowski had to scrape and claw to fill the massive holes in the roster. To lure players to Detroit, he had to pay and often over-pay. So it's no wonder the Tigers payroll is so absurd. Without homegrown talent, you're stuck with expensive free agents. If DD failed to do this, the Tigers would be the Royals... or, more pointedly, the early-2000s Tigers.

Moving forward, Dombrowski must improve his success rate for position players. He nailed one pick with Curtis Granderson, but the jury is out on all the rest. This year's team is paying the price for that complete lack of depth.

Dombrowski catches a lot of heat for the trades that brought Sheffield and Renteria into town. Those were mistakes for sure, but he shouldn't slow down. Dombrowski hits as often as he misses. Cabrera for Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin seems like an absolute steal at this point. He also plucked Galarraga for next to nothing. And, while it's still early, the trade that brought in Austin Jackson, Max Scherzer, and Phil Coke seems like savvy deal that'll save the club millions while still improving the talent.

DD's not perfect, but he did turn the franchise into a player on the MLB-scene. Despite a salary cap and league-mandated parity, the Lions have yet to reach that level.

The house of cards that is an exhibition win

What does a pre-season win mean?

On the surface, it means nothing. If 2008 taught us anything, it's that the pre-season win has absolutely no bearing on the team's ability to win in the regular season. Even in the 1st quarter, when starters are pitted against starters, most reams run ho-hum plays, preferring to save the real plays for when it counts. Yet, I won't go so far as to call the pre-season completely worthless.

If your starters regularly get pounded in the pre-season, it's likely they'll get pounded in the regular season too. So the pre-season can't identify actual talent, but it can expose weakness.

On Saturday, the Lions beat the Broncos. Folks in Detroit want to love the Lions but most have been burned too much to exhibit any true belief. Once bitten, twice shy no longer applies. For Lions fans, it's one thousand times bitten, permanently numb. So that's how we approach every season. We're happy that Matt Stafford looks like a capable, even occasionally good, quarterback. We're thrilled that Jahvid Best can outrun 300 lb linemen to the corner. We might even smile when Dre Bly picks off an errant pass and returns it 50 yards, juking and dodging like the poor man's Deion. But these are still the Lions.

Kyle Orton still had little difficulty finding an open receiver. The defense still collected a barrage of penalties. And, most importantly, they've still only won two times in the past thirty-two games. So, pardon me while I go puke in my mouth once again. Don't fool yourself that this team is any different than the historically bad teams that bore Bubbles on their helmets in years past. Don't fall prey to the foolish belief that the offense will be "explosive." Don't believe any hype until they prove it in the regular season. It's like Invasion of the Body Snatchers. Once you fall asleep, the Lions will replace your body with the Spielman-jersey-wearing Slappie from Section 112. Don't fall asleep, nofrown readers. Stay awake. Even if you're the last man and woman on Earth who know the truth, don't give in!!!

WDFN - WTF?

I realize that I'm not completely dialed-in to the pulse of the metro Detroit sportsfan, but I am still very confused by the talk radio content. The past 3 days I've listened to WDFN (via iheartradio) during my morning commute. This amounts to about 120 minutes of WDFN time over the past3 days. That would be August 18-20. The dog days of summer, indeed. 120 minutes of listening and I received 119 minutes of discussion of RichRod and the state of the Michigan football team.

I realize that the Tigers have faded from relevance faster than Lindsay Lohan's acting career, but there was one mention today of the score from yesterday's baseball game. That's it. Over the course of 3 days, I didn't hear a single mention of Lion's training camp, the potential new owner(s) of the Pistons, anything about the Red Wings - or, for that matter, any news out of East Lansing.

Someone please help me - is this really the most interesting topic on the minds of the Detroit sportsfan? Is the all encompassing topic whether Tate Forcier has wings on his helmet? There has to be more - there has to be!

Odds and Ends

Boesch had 9 at-bats since I made the post below. He managed 1 hit and 4 strikeouts. For the month, Boesch is hitting .140 with a ghastly .183 on-base percentage.

Earlier this month, the Tigers considered sending him down to the minors, and they were praised for letting him fight through the slump. The folks that want him in the minors, cite Porcello and Scherzer as examples of players who benefited greatly from the short stint in Toledo. The folks that want him to stay in the D say the Tigers are too thin and need every bat possible.

The fact of the matter is this... Boesch is too valuable to keep in Detroit. The move to Toledo may cripple his confidence but is it any worse than a .140 batting average? Toledo doesn't have many games remaining. The Tigers need to move on this now. Get the kid down in Triple-A - away from the spotlight. After the initial disappointment wears off, perhaps he'll rediscover his swing. If not, bring him up after the Triple-A season ends, as a utility player. Maybe he'll get hot at the end of the month and make a run for Rookie-of-the-Year honors.

Besides, there's another lefty outfielder who may be catching heat as we speak - Andy Dirks. He's an 8th round pick from 2008, but he's slowly picked up steam. Dirks moved up from AA a few weeks ago, and - in 13 games with the Mud Hens - is hitting .346 with 11 RBIs. Maybe he's got the goods too. Who knows? The Tigers don't have much to lose since they're out of the race.

Inge-ured

In other news, Brandon Inge's days as a Tiger may be numbered. The Tigers may trade him to the Braves or Cardinals. This would be a great move for the Tigers since they may actually get something for nothing. To replace Inge, the Tigers would likely move Peralta to 3rd and Danny Worth to SS. Worth isn't quite the homerun threat as Inge, but he also strikes out less - Inge Ks roughly 25% of the time vs 12% for Worth. So, the Tigers lose a bit of power with this move, but they improve defensively. And they'll also receive a player or players from the Braves or Cards. An Inge-rental for 6 weeks wouldn't command a huge bounty, but it may yield bullpen help or perhaps a decent prospect.

Peralta's Millions

A brief update on the Tigers financial situation for next season. Last week, I posted that the Tigers have $55M committed in salary next season. That remains true. If, however, they wish to retain Jhonny Peralta, he'd be due $7M. So, the Tigers are more likely looking at $62M in salaries before they go shopping to bolster their catcher, outfield, and SS (or 3B) positions.

The curious case of Brennen Boesch

It's no secret the Tigers have struggled since the All-star break. They took 2 of 3 against the White Sox over the weekend, but it's just too little, too late. The hole they dug with their 7-22 record out of the second half gate is simply too big. No player better represents that struggle than 1st half wunderkind - Brennen Boesch.

Back in those wondrous mid-July days, Tiger fans lamented Boesch's exclusion from the All-star team. His stats were that grand, and Boesch had a legitimate gripe. I was quietly relieved, thinking Boesch would benefit more from the 3 days off. I had seen prior Tiger All-stars completely unravel after the All-star break, as recently as last year's Brandon Inge. (In hindsight, I'm simply astounded Inge actually made an All-star team) I figured Boesch's offensive surge would continue in the 2nd half since he had extra motivation with the All-star snub. Unfortunately, the opposite happened.

On July 9th, I wrote: Tiger fans keep waiting for the other shoe to drop, for Brennen to hit an Inge-like dryspell. So far, he's stayed hot. He's hitting .341, with 12 HR, and 47 RBI.

The Inge-like dryspell hit... and hit hard. His 2nd half numbers are abysmal - .121 BA, 2 HR, 6 RBI. By contrast, another favorite whipping boy, Ryan Raburn, hit .278, 4 HR, 16 RBI in that span. What the heck went wrong? One glance at yesterday's box score might provide one clue. He was hitless in 3 at-bats and only saw 4 pitches. Perhaps to rekindle his earlier glory, Boesch reverted to clobbering that opening pitch. Obviously, teams learned his tendency to bomb that opening pitch and adapted. The previous game, Boesch had 4 at-bats, all strikeouts. He seems to be a step behind. What he needs to do... and what the hitting coaches better be telling him... is that he needs to always be patient. Wait for your pitch. And then clobber it. If you miss it, fine. But the hitting philosophy in the major leagues ain't much different than Little League. If kids swing at pitches in the dirt, they're going to strike out. If they're patient and wait for a pitch over the plate, their chance of success increases dramatically.

That's the Cabrera philosophy. You can tell he waits and waits at the plate. I've never seen such a fantastic 2-strike hitter. Often, he'll fall behind 0-2 and foul off pitch after pitch without ever seeing a ball. He simply protects the plate and waits for the pitcher to throw one where he's expecting it. Now, Cabrera is a one-in-a-million talent, and we can't expect Boesch to mimic his numbers. But he should mimic his approach. I've seen Boesch exhibit patience at the plate. That should be his approach 100% of the time.

He may not get the power back this season. Hitting streaks are simply too fickle. But we've all seen his potential, and the kid should be groomed for a long career as a Tiger. Let this slump be a learning experience as opposed to a testament to his deficiencies. His ability to work out of a slump will be as important a skill as hitting a 3-run bomb. But he needs his help, and that's why the team has coaches. I just hope they're doing their job.

Bob, it's been real.

Last night, Brazil tore through the US as easily as a four year old through his Christmas presents. To make matters worse, the US fielded largely the same squad that started the World Cup, while Brazil picked players mostly from their U-21 side. The disparity in quality was so stark that many American fans in at the Meadowlands started cheering for Brazil!

If the US ever needed a barometer to see how far they truly are from contending on the world stage, this friendly was it. I will concede that the game was just that - a friendly. The American players who just returned from the World Cup obviously had little interest in this "come-down" game, while the Brazilians were anxious to impress their new coach. Even if the US had played with passion, the Brazilians just posed too much skill and savvy. This game was so thoroughly weighted toward Brazil that I can't imagine any scenario where the US even manages a draw.

The subplot throughout the night was whether this would be Bob Bradley's final game as coach of the US team. Bradley's contract with the USSF runs out in December, and he expressed interest in the Aston Villa vacancy. The man who decides Bradley's fate is Sunil Gulati. After the team's lame exit to Ghana in the World Cup, Gulati gave no ringing endorsement of either the team or Bradley, claiming the team was "capable of more." Most fans would agree, as this game was a perfect example of what Bradley's teams look like against top competition. The team was mentally unprepared, lacking imagination, a step slow, and, in general, way less skilled.

I've followed sports long enough to know these "Will he get fired or not?" situations are more complex then they seem. Unless your owner/president is prone to knee-jerk reactions (i.e. Steinbrenner in the 70s), the process will take much longer than you expect. The reason is simple - the president must take time to sift through potential replacements. If no suitable replacement surfaces, the coach will likely receive an extension. In Bradley's case, Gulati does have a suitable replacement in Jurgen Klinsmann:

Shortly after the World Cup, Donovan was asked about the coaching situation. Donovan, not surprisingly, fully supported his coach and said the Bradley team had excellent chemistry. When asked whether he'd prefer a foreign-based coach, Donovan expressed concern, implying that a foreign coach might have difficulty understanding the soccer culture in the US. My guess is that Donovan was thinking of the Sven Goran Ericsson/Mexico situation. Mexico hired Ericsson shortly after the '06 World Cup. After spending his entire career in Europe and likely having seen Mexico only a handful of times, Ericsson was thrust into the Mexican fire. He tried implementing his own defensive philosophies on a team and culture that was built around ball possession. The two styles clashed. Despite the wealth of Mexican talent, Ericsson did not get the results, and he was fired with Mexico on the brink not qualifying for the World Cup. His replacement, the Mexican Javier Aguirre, refashioned the team in the traditional Mexican mold, and Mexico qualified by winning four of the final five games.

Jurgen Klinsmann would be a different story. He's married to an American and has lived in the US over a decade. He's practiced with the LA Galaxy and has no doubt kept tabs on the US team since his flirtation with the coaching job in 2006. Would Klinsmann be an upgrade? My guess is yes. With his extensive experience as both a coach and player, Klinsmann would add an an air of class to the US nats. He worked wonders with the Germans in 2006 but fared less well with Bayern Munich in 2009. To be successful with the US team, Klinsmann would have to do something about the porous US defense. In the four years of Bradley's tenure, the defense regressed. He tried new faces but failed to uncover any defensive savior. The US also has a well-documented string of games without a striker scoring a goal. No doubt Klinsmann's goal-poaching acumen would help in that arena.

Yet, we all know the coach's main responsibility is much simpler. The coach must put the players in a position to succeed. Bradley failed miserably in this area by trotting out over-matched players like Ricardo Clark, even after they had been exposed. Perhaps it was Bradley's loyalty blinding him. That was certainly the issue with Bradley's predecessor, Bruce Arena, who inexplicably relied upon pedestrian Jeff Agoos throughout the 2002 World Cup run. The hallmark of Arena's reign, however, was a unique ability to uncover talent, which often made up for his blind loyalty. Arena got the absolute best out of marginal talents like Tony Sanneh, Chris Armas, and Pablo Mastroeni. In fact, those players were not on the national team radar until Arena took over. He successfully replaced the aged '94 Old Guard like John Harkes, which Steve Sampson (in the '98 campaign) could not. Arena also bravely included Landon Donovan and Damarcus Beasley in his starting lineup when the two were just 18 years old. Beasley's career, by the way, has been in constant decline since Arena's departure. Perhaps Arena's biggest accomplishment was harnessing the talent of mercurial Clint Mathis. He had a steep decline following the '02 World Cup, but for those four years leading up to that Cup, he was simply incredible. Here's proof:

Arena somehow got the absolute best from Mathis, turning him into a superstar. He equaled that club success on the national stage:

That's why it was maddening when Arena would often sit Mathis. Arena would regularly trot out these bizarre lineups that seemed doomed on paper. Claudio Reyna at right midfield. Carlos Llamosa at left back. But somehow that team got results, and that's why I called him "The Professa". He just seemed smarter than the rest of us.

As for Bob Bradley, he often got results, but they often seemed in spite of some dubious coaching decisions (like the draw against Slovenia). And the World Cup '10 squad was the worst mentally prepared team I've ever seen. I also have a hard time thinking of any player that he uncovered. I'd say Dempsey had his best days under Coach Bradley. Yet, I'd argue that Dempsey's improvement was largely due to his time at Fulham, and he performs more consistently for club than country. Michael Bradley did come into his own under Bob, but Michael actually got his first caps under Bruce Arena, as an 18 year old. Sifting through the entire player pool, there is one who's flourished under Bradley - Benny Feilhaber. Whether due to ego, talent, or bad luck, Feilhaber had a terrible time getting minutes for any club team. He was even kicked off the 2008 Olympic team due to an attitude problem. Yet, with Bob Bradley, Feilhaber was a revelation. So, I'll give Bob that. He also sorta ushered in the Charlie Davies era, but it sure took him long enough. Davies was clearly the best striker option for months before Bradley finally settled on him as the answer. And there's also Altidore, who fares well with Bradley.

So, after four years, Bradley can claim Feilhaber, Davies, and Altidore as true success stories. But I want more. Those three players were no-brainers. They all came up through the youth system and, in the case of Davies and Altidore, shone at the Olympics.

Bruce Arena was far superior with discovering and maximizing talent. Arena's teams were often maddening too, but Bradley simply has more tools and is getting the same old results. Arena brought the US from mediocrity to respectability. The next coach of the US needs to bring the team to the next level.

On the bright side

With the season spiraling out of control for the Tigers, it's time to look to the future. I suppose this is always the mark of a dreadful organization. When fans start fantasizing about next year - before the current year is close to over - the team must be in shambles. In Millen's final season with the Lions, fans started talking about "next year" after Week 2. In fact, I remember watching Fox2's Dan Miller say on SportsWorks after Week 2, "Is it too early to write off the season?!" And he's no mere fan. Dan Miller is the Lions play-by-play announcer! The team proceeded to lose the remaining 14 games. Clearly the fans weren't the only ones who stopped caring.

Despite the Tigers win yesterday, the fact remains that they're 6-20 since the All-star break. That's the worst record in the Majors. So, it's not a stretch to say the Tigers are the worst team in baseball. I suppose I could amend it by saying they're "currently the worst team" but that's splitting hairs. Bad is bad. Yet, Mike Ilitch announced last week that both Dombrowski and Leyland would return to the organization next year.

The Leyland decision is quite worrisome. Besides his tragic track record of limping in the second half (career Tiger record post All-star break: 143-177), my two most recent posts documented his tendency to put his players in a position to fail. I don't foresee that trend changing any time soon. Regardless, Leyland did win a World Series, and it takes a special manager to accomplish that. He also seems to have the respect of his players. While I'm not a Leyland fan, I'm not going to write off 2011 simply due to his involvement.

Dombrowski, meanwhile, is a different story. I actually like the guy. While he rightfully should be skewered for colossally horrible contract extensions, he does have a decent track record at the draft. He's also fearless. The Granderson trade last season is the perfect example. That move - made for future success - actually worked out for the current season too. DD was killed by the fans at the time (I was no exception), but he proved he's wiser than all of us. To be honest, the person who should most hate Dombrowski is the guy who wants him back! Dombrowski squandered millions upon millions of Ilitch's dollars. He paid $12million to Sheffield to go away. Nate Robertson got $10million of Ilitch's cash to play for the Marlins. And then there's Dontrelle Willis - perhaps the most embarrassing contract extension ($30 million plus) in the history of the Tigers. Yet, ol' DD can hit the reset button in October. Most of the dreadful contracts expire.

Specifically, all the names mentioned above are off the books. In addition, Bonderman, who earned a staggering $12.5million this season, is a free agent. Same for Johnny Damon ($8M). Inge too ($6.6M). The heavens part and the sun shines once again in Comerica Park as Gerald Laird's contract ($4M) expires. And, as was reported ad nauseum in Detroit recently, Magglio Ordonez's injury effectly eliminates his chance at $15M next season. Those big names, plus the Adam Everetts and Bobby Seays of the world means the Tigers clear a whopping $74.4 million off their 2010 payroll.

With all that cash off the books, who's left? The building blocks.

• Miguel Cabrera (signed through 2015)
• Valverde (signed for one more season)
• Verlander (signed through 2014)
• Guillen (one more season)
• Peralta (a small club buyout if Tigers don't want him but I bet they do)
• Porcello (one more season)
• Scherzer (too young to be free agent-eligible)
• Miner, Zumaya, Galarraga, and Rayburn will only return if the Tigers want them (Arbitration-eligible)
• The contracts for the super-young players (Boesch, Jackson, Rhymes) are negligible (each around $500k)

All told, the Tigers have $55M committed to the 2011 roster, and that cash (plus what Imperfecto Galarraga would earn in arbitration) covers 4/5 of their starting rotation! Amazingly, that $55M accounts for 66% of their RBI total this season too. The only big RBI losses would be Ordonez and Inge, and there's no guarantee Magg's would sign elsewhere. He may return, but he'd have to take a major Damon-esque paycut. His agent, Scott Boras, would definitely battle that. Regardless, all this data informs that the Tigers got tremendous value for that $55M, and almost zero value for the remaining $74M.

The big question entering 2011 will be what Dombrowski and Ilitch choose to do with the extra $74M. Does Ilitch pocket the cash, hoping to recoup money that was potentially lost in 2009 and 2010? Or does he spend, spend, spend?

The $55M does not account for a catcher, 3rd baseman, and outfielder. So they're at least three position players short. If they spend $10M for each position, the Tigers could land some serious bats and still be saving significant cash from the 2010 payroll.

Here are just a few of the free agents available (and their current stats):

• Catchers - John Buck (.277, 14 HR, 49 RBI), Victor Martinez (.283, 10 HR, 40 RBI)
• 3rd Basemen - Jorge Cantu (.264, 10HR, 54 RBI), Juan Uribe (.256 15 HR, 63 RBI)
• Outfielders - Carl Crawford (.299, 12 HR, 58 RBI, 38 stolen bases!), Jason Kubel (.266, 15 HR, 68 RBI), Scott Podsednik (.300, 5 HR, 47 RBI, 34 stolen bases), Jayson Werth (.301, 16 HR, 58 RBI), Magglio Ordonez (.303, 12 HR, 59 RBI)

As expected, the catcher position is quite weak. Only Buck is a viable option. Victor Martinez would likely command a hefty price tag, and opposing teams would steal on him at will. The Tigers had massive difficulty against teams with speed this season. Martinez would not help in that regard. Both Buck and Martinez would be a massive upgrade from Laird, but Buck is cheaper.

I'm surprised there aren't better options available at third base. I'm not enamored with either option listed above. Adrian Beltre is also slated to be a free agent, but he has a player option to stick with Boston. Furthermore, Beltre's having a stellar season and will likely command a salary only in the Yankees or Red Sox realm. The Tigers have the cash to match almost anything, but they don't have the clout. I suppose I should've included Inge on the list of free agent possibilities, since the Tiger organization likes him. Inge... gulp... could be back as the Tigers 3rd baseman, though I'd prefer either Cantu or Uribe.

The real gem of the free agent class is Carl Crawford. Crawford is that rare 5-tool player who can help you win in so many ways. The Tigers would face massive competition for his services. If history is any indication, the Tigers have an extremely slim chance to sign this kid, but I have no doubt they'll try. When they go head-to-head with the kings of the league (Yankees, Dodgers, Sox), the Tigers lose. He'd be an incredible addition, and one can dream... but they're more likely to land a Scott Podsednik. And he's a fine consolation prize, though much older than Crawford. Podsednik offers the same level of speed as Crawford though not the power. Kubel is another interesting proposition. Would he ever consider signing with the Tigers after spending a career with the Twins? Not likely. But money talks, and the Tigers have it. Then there's Maggs. Statistically, his numbers stack up favorably with all those players. Defensively, he's serviceable. The dude would just have to take a pay cut. I'd be thrilled if the Tigers re-signed Maggs, and also landed Pods or Kubel or Werth. They'd have to figure out what to do with Boesch, so maybe play Maggs as DH?

There are options. Especially in outfield. That's where the Tigers should focus all their energy come October. The bats are available.

Again on Leyland

Another perfect example of Leyland putting a player in a position to fail...

Yesterday, on the heels of Ryan Raburn's dramatic three-run bomb with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th, Leyland called on Valverde to pitch the 10th. Papa Grande responded with a stellar 1-2-3 inning. When the Tigers failed to notch a hit in the bottom of the 10th, Leyland again resorted to his closer for the 11th.

Folks, this is a small but dangerous decision. All season long, Valverde thrived when pitching just one inning. Why force the issue? Perry was available. So was Bonine. And Brad Thomas. There were plenty of options. Yet, Leyland called on Valverde once again, and he gave up the two-run triple. Valverde pitched superbly in the first half of the season. And he's struggled big-time (like the rest of the team) since the All-star break. With his 1-2-3 tenth, let the dude sit! He did his job. Oh, Leyland.

If Leyland Coached the Red Wings...

First off, my apologies for the extended absence. Mrs. Nofrown and I packed up Baby Nofrown and headed up North. Admittedly, I did have interweb access. With the warm weather distractions coupled with the pathetic display by the beloved Tigers, I was less-than inspired to blog. Nevertheless, I'm back and ready to roll.

As we drove back home this weekend, Mrs. Nofrown and I had an interesting discussion regarding embattled Tigers coach Jim Leyland. It began with her comment: "Your Dad really doesn't like Leyland." It's true. Papa Nofrown, while he possesses much of Leyland's faux-curmudgeon tendencies, is turned off by Leyland's disrespectful treatment of the press. In post-game press conferences, Leyland has no problem cursing and, in general, acting like an ass. He's a frightful interview who holds a grudge. If your on his list, forget about getting any meaningful print. My Dad believes these athletes and coaches should be role models, and Leyland is no role model.

Mrs. Nofrown later commented, "Leyland is no Babcock." I couldn't agree more. Yes, the Tigers were hit hard with injuries this month, but it's hard to imagine a team more beset with injuries than the 09-10 Red Wings. The fact that the Wings kept afloat (barely) and eventually finished with a 44-24-14 record is a testament to Babcock's ability and the organization's depth. During the dark days of January, as the Wings lost game after game, I was extremely critical of the team and the defense in particular. Yet, it's seven months later, and, with the emotion removed from the equation, I can honestly look back with pride as the Wings overcame a ton of obstacles over the course of the entire season. They never panicked. They ground out wins when possible and patiently waited for the regular starters to return. First Zetterberg. Then Filppula. Then Holmstrom. Then Cleary. Then Lilja. And, finally, Franzen.

The drive-home conversation then became, "What if Leyland coached the Wings..." Perhaps the major difference between the two coaches is that Leyland appears set in his ways. Babcock has shown a tremendous ability to adapt, especially with regard to players. Despite a borderline Conn Smythe-level performance in the previous playoff run, Babcock benched Osgood when he wasn't performing. The move unearthed Jimmy Howard - a dude who showed almost no sign of NHL-level ability during his four previous seasons in the minors. Babcock also tinkered with the lines until he discovered a potent New Millennium grind line with Draper, Helm, and Eaves. All three of those players struggled until the trio played together. The new line ultimately sent long-time Wing Kirk Maltby to the scratch list.

One of Babcock's strongest assets is his talent evaluation. I always write on this blog that the coach's main job is to put players in a position to succeed. An example of this is Todd Bertuzzi. Babcock recognized that Bertuzzi is a step-slower but he's still got excellent hands and hockey-sense. Those attributes belong on the top lines. Instead of sending the past-his-prime forward to the 4th line (as would happen on most teams), Babcock inserted Bertuzzi with Datsyuk or Zetterberg, and Bertuzzi rewarded him with his highest goal output in four seasons.

Babcock did the same thing with Ville Leino the season before. He recognized Leino's top talent skill, which, for some reason, failed to manifest itself this past year. In fact, Leino could be Babcock's most glaring mistake. There was no spot for Leino on the top lines, and he struggled big-time to click with Helm, Drew Miller, and the other 3rd and 4th liners. Perhaps it was the burr in his arse after getting traded for a bag of pucks, but Leino showed his quality in Philly.

As for Leyland, I have no doubt that his stubbornness regarding personnel and strategy would've ultimately doomed him as coach of the Wings. Leyland would've stuck with Osgood in net. If his batting orders are any indication, he would've been much less experimental with the forward lines. Despite Brennan Boesch's month-long struggle at the plate, Leyland refused to move him from the 5 spot, until two days ago. As for putting players in a position to succeed, Leyland fails miserably. Incredibly, he had Jeff Frazier (career at-bats = 0) batting 3rd against the Red Sox. Traditionally, the player batting third is a reliable run producer (i.e. Maggs). Boesch could've worked there. Or Peralta. But Frazier? In his first-ever game? He went hitless, by the way.

Perhaps the biggest indictment of Leyland is his inability to right the ship. Babcock somehow managed to keep the Wings in contention despite the rash of injuries and then finished the season on a miraculous tear. Leyland simply does not inspire the Tigers to play winning baseball when it counts most. With the Twins breathing down their neck and two games to go, Leyland refused to pitch Verlander on 3-days rest and instead started rookie hurler Alfredo Figaro (career starts = 2) against the White Sox. Figaro lasted 38 pitches and 1.1 innings. The Tigers lost, and their historic collapse to the Twins was complete, as the Twins officially caught them that very day.

I saw Figaro earlier in the season and felt he had potential to be a capable starter. Yet, placing the kid in that pressure-packed situation for his 3rd career start? That's not exactly putting him in a position to succeed. With the way the Tigers are failing, I suppose this anti-Leyland post is guilty of piling-on. Yet, his stubborn antics just illustrate how lucky we are to have a fearless, adaptable coach in Babcock. Perhaps Leyland will change, but I doubt it will be in a Tiger uniform.