Thursday, October 8, 2009

RIP 2009 Detroit Tigers

I feel much better today. Most of the time, the sting after a bad loss is gone by the next morning. The loss to the Twins left me feeling ill much longer. It lingered through the night and into the next day. I didn't really care about the "epic collapse" or "choke" aspect of it either. As I mentioned before, I don't think the Tigers did choke. They played to their ability. Minnesota just had another gear, while the Tigers did not. What bothered me was the missed opportunities.

The game was a microcosm of the entire season. The Tigers had so many chances to push across runs and seal the deal. Yet, they just couldn't jump that final hurdle. They teased the fans all season long, and, while we tried to dismiss their chances of making the playoffs, the Tigers forced us believe. How can you deny a team in first place for so long? Damn that impending sense of doom!

And so, after the Great Tease of '09, the fans and Dave Dombrowski are left to pick up the pieces. After such a horrific ending, there's a palpable stench surrounding this team (not unlike the Pistons in '08 and '09). The fans will associate the current players with failure, disappointment, or worse. Unfortunately, we're stuck with 'em. Thanks to some hefty contracts, the Tigers are stuck with much the same roster. In fact, the team could get significantly worse, since key players (that we want to stick around) are free agents.

Let's start with Polanco. While he didn't deliver in the final game, he was the most clutch hitter all season. He's a free agent and may get a lucrative deal with a better club. Polanco is respected around the league, and, with such a hefty payroll, the Tigers may not have financial flexibility to match another offer. Rodney and Lyon are also free agents, and Rodney will be in line for a significant raise ($2.7M this year). Closers of his ilk could command $8-$9M. How much is the walking ulcer worth? Most fans would definitely want to keep Lyon, but he may not want to stay. If he gets an offer to be the closer somewhere else, he may take it. Lyon proved to me he has potential to be the closer, so why not give him the job (and a raise)?

Verlander, Jackson, and Laird are arbitration-eligible. Dombrowski will do whatever it takes to keep all three. Verlander and Jackson will be due massive raises. Verlander will command Cy Young-level money ($15M+), but it may only start at $10M next year and increase incrementally as other salaries come off the books. Jackson should earn about $10M. As for Laird, folks want to run him out of town. He left something like 10 runners on base that final game, and just could not hit worth a damn all season. It's true he was a nightmare at the plate, but he was also a Gold Glove catcher. Alex Avila, for all his late season heroics, is only two years removed from college. There's no harm in keeping both next year. The team will need two catchers anyway. Let Avila earn the job over time. This season, Laird earned $2.8M. If he wins the Gold Glove, he'll get a little raise, but that batting average will keep him honest.

The only other significant free agents are Everett and Galarraga. Dombrowski will want to keep both. Everett was cheap ($1M) and an effective shortstop, and Galarraga still has potential as a starter. The Tigers are in no position to let a starting pitcher walk. Miner and Seay are arbitration-eligible, and, unless there's some hidden rift, I expect they'll be back.

Ladies and Gentlemen, your 2010 Detroit Tigers:

Catcher: Laird, Avila
1st: Cabrera
2nd: ???, Santiago
SS: Everett
3rd: Inge
LF: Guillen, Raburn
CF: Granderson
RF: Maggs, Clete

Starters: Verlander, Porcello, Jackson, Bonine, Robertson
Middle relief: Miner, Galarraga, Seay, Ni, Bonderman
Late relief: Lyon, Perry, Zumaya

Bonderman is on the hook for a startling $12.5M next season. His offseason should prove interesting. For that type of money, the Tigers will try to get him back in starter mode. Nevertheless, I'm not sure if he'll ever regain that '06 form. Robertson exhibited just enough to warrant a look as a starter next year, and he's still due a whopping $10M.

Thankfully, Gary Sheffield's $13M comes off the books, but Dontrelle remains as $12M. Yikes.

So, the only question mark is 2nd base. Don't expect an overhaul. Not for another year at least.

Remedy
And, now, the cure for your Tiger depression. Nothing like good 'ol Christopher Cross, backed by the Roots:

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