Thursday, November 12, 2009

Pistons, Wings answer call despite injuries

It's early in the season, but both the Pistons and Wings are severely shorthanded. The Pistons played with a full roster in just 1 of their 8 games. The Red Wings, who, like the Pistons, experienced major turnover in the offseason, already lost three key forwards.

Last night, though, it didn't matter. Both teams absolutely destroyed the opposition. The Red Wings pounded the Columbus Blue Jackets early and often, jumping out to a 4-0 lead in the 1st period. The Wings did not let up, and they finished the game scoring a whopping 9 goals. The goals were spread somewhat evenly, though Kronwall and Abdelkader notched two each. The most impressive stat of the game may not even be the number of goals - the Wings played 60 straight minutes without turning the puck over once. For a puck-possession team, they should be proud.

After getting shellacked by Toronto over the weekend, it was an impressive rebound performance. After 16 games, the Wings are 8-5-3. Fellow TBDL blogger "John," emphasized that we should reserve judgment until after the 20th game, so there's 4 more to go. My hope is that the Wings will at least be a top 8 team in the West by then (they're currently 10th). Of the top teams based on today's standings, the Wings have victories over San Jose (1st), LA (3rd), Calgary (4th), and Chicago (5th). Apparently, the competition doesn't matter. The Wings worst enemy is their own turnover-prone defense and inconsistent goaltending.

On the hardcourt, Rip Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince remain sidelined. Rip's ankle will keep him out a few more games, but my guess is he'll return in about two weeks. Tayshaun's situation is much more dire. Tay has a ruptured disc in his lower back - a condition I know all too well. They're pondering surgery (which would sideline him a few months), but, for now, they're hoping rest will allow it to heal on its own. As the freep article linked above states, Rick Mahorn had a similar injury, and it eventually required surgery. Interestingly, Mahorn was 29 at the time - same age as Tay (I was 30).

The absence of Rip and Tay did not make much of a difference last night, as the Pistons dismantled Larry Brown's Hornets. One of the Hornets top players, Raja Bell, was also out due to an injury, but it would not have mattered. The Pistons were on fire. Through three quarters, the team shot over 60%, with only a handful of turnovers. Late in the 3rd, the Pistons had over 75pts, while the Hornets had yet to pass 50. Villanueva and Gordon combined for 52 points, while missing only ten shots. They sat the entire fourth quarter. The game was actually close in the 2nd quarter, until Bynum ignited the team (and crowd) with a thunderous dunk over Tyson Chandler and Gerald Wallace - two of the better defensive players in the league!



The Pistons then went on a tear to finish the half on a 15-4 run. Charlie V caught fire in the 3rd, and the rout was on.

The only negative (and this is really minor) is that the Piston scrubs played pretty poorly. Chucky Atkins, Chris Wilcox, and Dajuan Summers all showed signs of rust. But who can really argue with a blowout win? I was hoping the Piston would take advantage of these winnable home games. So far, so good. They've got a brutal schedule ahead - @Washington, Dallas, @Lakers, @Portland, @Utah, @Phoenix, and then home against Lebron. Other than the Wiz, those are all elite teams. While Utah is struggling, the Pistons haven't beaten that team since the Nixon administration. The Stones could easily finish that stretch 1-6, so feasting on these lesser Eastern Conference teams is key. They've got to establish some semblance of team unity before the losses pile up against the Western powers.

Sure, I hope they'll pull out a few wins on that road trip, but I'm a realist. Even the most elite Piston teams struggled out West. They would fare a bit better with Prince in the lineup instead of Jerebko, but it'll at least be a learning experience. And that's what this season is about.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

More on EJ

After reading more on the potential EJ trade, I came to the conclusion that it's not financially motivated. As one mLive poster wrote: "If there was a payroll issue, they would have jettisoned Ordonez and not bothered with Washburn/Huff. There's 20MM right there."

That's an excellent point. Ilitch was more than willing to take on salary during August. Have things changed that much in three months? The only major difference is that the Tigers missed out on the playoffs. Surely, Mr. I didn't believe the Tigers would make it past round 1, so he only lost out on the gate receipts from two home games. With inflated playoff prices, that's a significant amount of change, but is it enough to alter his win-first philosophy?

If the Tigers were hurting financially, Mr. I could make it public, and you'd see folks lining down the block for their $5 Hot-n-readys. Detriot loves Ilitch, and he loves the city (and teams) right back. So, I don't buy the financial argument. This has to be a case of Dombrowski trying to "sell high" and hope another GM parts with a gem (or gems).

Trade Jackson?

Last night, a small bit of Tiger news caught fire: Dombrowski is shopping Edwin Jackson.

As someone who watched Edwin's highs (April) and lows (August), I'm still fairly shocked. Young pitchers who can tough 97mph with control do not come around very often. Even though Edwin struggled mightily down the stretch, I'd still consider him to be a cornerstone of the future.

The fact that Dombrowski is entertaining offers tells me the team needs to trim payroll. This is a sad development. Dombrowski opened the books for D-train, Nate, Guillen, Bonderman, Sheffield, and Maggs, and now the fans are paying the price. From a businessman's perspective, the potential move makes sense. Edwin's value has never been higher. He's coming off an All-star season, with a truly wicked 1st half. Yet, the Tigers watched in horror as Jackson lost 4 of his last 5, while sporting a 6.13 ERA after September 1st.

If the team ships off Jackson for prospects, the Tigers would have only two reliable starters - Verlander and Porcello. There are major question marks with every other option - Bonderman, Galarraga, Robertson, etc. That's a recipe for disaster. The trade could be a massive PR blunder, and I'd hate to believe Ilitch would want that. Despite the region's economy, the Tiger fans continued to support the team - 12th in the league at almost 32,000/game. Yet, fans are smart. If they sense the team isn't committed to winning, they won't come. And how could a team that lets Polanco leave, loses its bullpen, and trades away its 2nd best starter claim to be committed to winning?

Folks, it's going to be a long, very speculative offseason.

Gold Glove
If Gerald Laird was anything last season, he was a truly awesome defensive catcher. Among starters, he led the league in throwing out base-stealers. He threw out an astounding 42%. The next closest was Rod Barajas at 34%. His 99.7% fielding percentage was also tops in the AL (tied with Varitek). Yet, who won the prestigious Gold Glove for catcher? Joe frickin' Mauer. The Twins win again.

This is clearly a case of Laird's offensive numbers hurting his reputation. But the Gold Glove is for defense. From a defensive standpoint, Mauer's numbers just don't add up. In the one area where Laird was lacking - passed balls (9)- Mauer was actually worse (10). Mauer threw out only 26% of potential base-stealers, caught fewer innings, and had fewer assists. Mauer did only commit 3 errors all season, but so did Laird. Again, it makes no sense... unless it's a popularity contest. So, good for Mauer. He can add this trophy next to the dried Tiger pelts on his mantle.

Sucks for Laird. He really did deserve it.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Jermaine Dye

While his name will not make many headlines, Jermaine Dye will hit the free agent market this season. Like many other White Sox, Dye made a career (or at least a partial career) out of destroying the Tigers.

The burly right hander, along with Konerko and Thome, was part of the Whitesox fearsome threesome - a power-hitting 1-2-3 juggernaut. Yet, the Sox never fully embraced Dye. Konerko was the fan favorite. Whenever Dye struggled, his name was floated around the league as potential trade bait. Now that he's a free agent, I can't imagine him re-signing with the Sox. As a 16-year veteran, he won't come cheap, despite his falling numbers. With all that said, I wholeheartedly believe the Tigers should pursue him.

Yes, I know the last thing the Tigers need is an aging, slow, right-handed hitter. But, despite his dip in form, he still outperformed almost all the Tigers in 2008. On a dreadful White Sox team, Dye hit .250, with 27 home runs and 81 RBIs. His on-base percentage of .340, would put him 3rd on the Tigers - ahead of Granderson and Polanco. Furthermore, he's got a rocket-arm to boot. While Magglio in Dye's regular right-field position, Dye would have to switch to left. He's played left field at times during his career, and he might not accept the switch. Yet, having the rangy Granderson in centerfield may make the switch more palatable.

As much as anything the signing of Dye would signal to the fans that Dombrowski and the Tigers are still hungry. For such a slow team, the Tigers hit with very little power. Dye could offer Cabrera some protection hitting fifth.

Now, it's possible that Dombrowski is sold on Ryan Raburn as the everyday left fielder. After seeing Raburn's troubles in the outfield, he may need one more season of part-time duty to familiarize himself. The Tigers tried to trade RyRay last spring training, and his trade value may be higher than ever. Who knows... maybe a national league team would part with a young reliever for RyRay.

If the Tigers start the season with Raburn in left, I suppose it would be just reward for a player who's battled hard for the team over the years. He's accepted whatever role they've asked of him and never complained. It's easy to pull for a guy like that. Yet, with the imminent departure of Polanco, the Tigers will need to augment the offense. If not, I foresee a last-place finish.

Monday, November 9, 2009

A bit of resolve

It's early in the season, yes. There are tons of new faces that will take time to gel. And Rip and Tayshaun remain sidelined with injuries. Yet, Sunday against the Sixers was a winnable game. If the Pistons didn't pull it out, I would've been seriously worried about a lottery-bound season.

We all know this is a transition year, but it's the same thing with Philly. I figured, if the Pistons couldn't take a home game against mediocre competition, who could they beat? Well, the team answered the call. The Pistons' defense set the tone early, limiting Philly to one shot and causing significant turnovers. But the Pistons often returned the favor on the other side of the court. Neither team shot very well, though the Pistons maintained a 3-6 point lead throughout most of the game.

With Tayshaun out, rookies Jonas Jerebko and Austin Daye played significant minutes. Jerebko fared slightly better, scoring 10 with 5 boards (no turnovers). Daye has a more NBA-ready offensive game, but Jerebko is a real pest on defense. He gets in passing lanes, dives for loose balls, and doesn't seem intimidated at all by the big stars. That's why he's starting.

In the previous game, I was really impressed with Daye's shooting touch. He has a quick, smooth release, but, against Philly, he missed all four three-pointers. Most of Jerebko's points were on put-backs. So, neither is really part of the offense yet, but they're learning. With the scaled-back roster, the Piston offense runs through the three guards and Charlie V. Against the weaker NBA teams, that may just be enough. Gordon is the best scorer, but he's also an able passer. In crunch time, the Pistons have exhibited a willingness to feed whoever has the hot hand. Lately, it's been Gordon or Bynum, though Charlie V was absolutely unstoppable against Orlando. As for Stuckey, he's not quite hit his stride. In the Orlando loss, he shot 9/18, but was back to 5/15 against Philly. For what it's worth, he only turned it over 2 times, so he's doing well as a ball-handler.

Yesterday, Philly took a 4pt lead with about six minutes to go. I was ready for the team to collapse. Willie Green was red-hot, and the Pistons couldn't keep pace. But the stellar Piston defense came to life... as did Ben Gordon and Bynum. Philly didn't score another field goal the rest of the way. Igoudala did manage a couple free throws at the 2:21 mark, but that was it. Meanwhile, Little Ben hit a few jumpers, Bynum hit a shot and then fed Charlie V for a perfect back-door layup. The Pistons finished on an impressive 15-4 run. It was great to see them step up during crunch time. Those kids - Ben Gordon and Will Bynum - have that winner mentality. They just seem to play their best when the game is on the line. Final score was 88-81 Pistons.

One more note: the Pistons outrebounded a good rebounding team 51-39, led by Big Ben's 16. Solid. Next up is Charlotte, another winnable game. My thinking is that the team has to focus on winning these home games against the less-than NBA squads. They're going to lose the majority of their road games, so, if only for the team's mental state and locker-room harmony, they've got to take care of business at home.

Double loss for Red Wings
One thing is clear - the Red Wings absolutely blow when there's a pregame celebration. In any sort of festive hockey atmosphere (banner raising, Hall of fame celebrating, Sweden playing), the Red Wings will lay an egg. Despite winning just two games all season, the Toronto Maple Leafs completely owned the Wings Saturday night. It was ugly.

To make matters worse, the Wings lost another forward. This time it was Jason Williams, who left with a broken leg. He's out at least two months. Ken Holland insists he won't make a trade, so it's time to call up another youngster. Glancing at the Griffins roster, there's no sure-fire pick. They've got a few guys scoring goals, 20 year old Jeremy Williams and 25 year old Jamie Tardif. The Wings normally let the youngsters stay in the minors, so my guess is we're looking at Tardif.

Friday, November 6, 2009

Tiger off-season

Some interesting quotes from Tiger free agents here. It's looking more and more likely that Polanco is history. According to the article, Dombrowski already said that minor leaguer Scott Sizemore is ready to step in. That's a pretty dangerous assumption, in my opinion. Sizemore is completely unproven. Polanco's bat and glove were crucial to the team last season, and, in the 2nd half of the season, he carried the team. At this point, it seems Dombrowski has accepted that another team will outbid him.

Adam Everett appears to be a safer bet to return. Only a $1million investment last year, I expect Everett to make between $1.5-$2million. Or he may get a multi-year deal for less per year.

As for Rodney and Lyon, both will get raises. Neither Rodney nor the Tigers are saying they want to part ways, but I just have a feeling Dombrowski will offer Lyon first. He'll probably offer Lyon something like a $12 million over 2 years. If Lyon agrees, Rodney will have to look elsewhere. Lyon will close and one of the youngsters will have to step in as set-up man (Perry? Fu Te Ni? Seay?... gulp... Zumaya?).

The biggest problem facing the Tigers, though, is not impending free agency. Sure, they may lose Polanco, Rodney, and Lyon, but they're also damn close to losing fan interest. After such a dreadful end to the '09 campaign, on the heels of the over-hyped last-place '08 squad, the Tigers are flirting with fan apathy.

Dumars positioned himself somewhat nicely to address fan apathy by jettisoning most of the troublesome core and bringing in fresh faces. The Pistons may struggle mightily all year, but Dumars created at least the illusion of a new beginning. For the Dombrowski, he's stuck with the same old team. GMs in baseball, once they commit to a contract, are bound by it through thick and thin. So, he's got little wiggle room with so much money tied up in the veterans who cashed in after '06 - you know the names (Bonderman, Nate, Maggs, Guillen). The Tigers can't bring in a Ben Gordon. Heck, they can barely afford a Chris Wilcox.

Next year, we'll be looking at a weakened Tiger team filling the holes with minor leaguers. It's gonna be a tough sell. The great purge will happen after 2010. But, man, that's a long time to wait, and, as the great sage Caputo said, "A season is a terrible thing to waste."

Thursday, November 5, 2009

Odds and Ends

I did not get a chance to watch the Pistons disappointing loss to the Raptors last night. Justin Rogers, another mLive blogger, offers some superior insights here.

The Pistons again played without Rip and Tayshaun, though I'm not sure if it would've made much of a difference. The key players in Toronto's offense were Bosh and Bargniani, who both shot 50% with 47 combined points. Bosh alone got to the line 20 times. So, for some reason, the excellent low-post defense provided by Big Ben and Kwame the previous night did not work.

Upon looking at the box score, one stat demands attention - Toronto scored a shocking 44 points in the second quarter. Against Ok City and Milwaukee, the 3rd quarter was the trouble spot. Against Orlando and Toronto, it was the 2nd. Logic would dictate that, with Rip and Tay out of the lineup, the bench would be severely crippled. So, I shouldn't be too surprised that the deep bench players getting run in the 2nd would get run over. With all the new faces, Kuester still doesn't have a rotation. He's not sure where to use Austin Daye, Chris Wilcox, Jason Maxiell, or Dajuan Summers. Kwame and Bynum are the only defined-role dudes off the bench (and, of course, Little Ben, when Rip comes back). Jerebko appears to have earned the coach's trust at the backup 3-spot, but he may feel some pressure from Austin Daye over time. Both have massive difficulty on defense. JJ earned 5 fouls in 25 minutes, while Daye got 5 fouls in 16. That's dreadful. As a fan, you just hope you see progress.

And progress is the key word for Stuckey this season. So far? Not much. He's attacking the basket with vigor, but 5-18 shooting really sucks. For the season, he's at 34%. That won't get it done. His aggressiveness is paying off on the defensive end with surging rebound totals. Last night he had 10. The previous night 9. This only fuels the flame that he shouldn't be running the point. I'm not in that camp. He's a good ball handler and only had one turn last night. His assist totals are low, but I think he's trying to develop into a Chauncey-type PG. Control the game, work the offense. Right now, the coach's are obviously telling him to attack.

If December rolls around and he's still shooting 34%, they might want to consider starting Bynum. He's a better defender and passer.

Wings
I guess it's only news when the Red Wings lose. Over the weekend, they beat Calgary away (always difficult) and then shut out Boston at home. They accomplished the shut out missing both Rafalski and Ericksson (flu). You can't give up a total of 1 goal over 120 minutes by accident. The Wings are playing better defense, and they're staying out of the box - only 5 total penalties over the 2 games.

I suppose it should also be noted that Jimmy Howard did not see the net in either win. Folks can complain all they want about Osgood, but he's the team's only professional-grade goalie. Lately, he's stood tall.

Interestingly, the Wings remain tied for 11th in the Western Conference. I know it's foolish to look at standings after a mere 13 games, but it does illustrate how the poor start has set them back. Unless they catch fire, they could be in for a season-long fight for playoff position. In the West, decent teams miss the playoffs every season. Next up is rebuilt San Jose, off to a hot start.