Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Help Me Make Sense of this team

The Tigers, after taking sole possession of first place, responded by losing 4 of their last 5. The lone win in that span was, of course, Verlander's 4-hit gem against Colorado.

What's their problem? Why so inconsistent? I suppose inconsistency has been their calling card all season. Check out their season broken down into ten game segments:

March 31 - April 11: 3 wins - 7 losses
April 12 - April 22: 7 wins - 3 losses
April 23 - May 3: 3 wins - 7 losses
May 4 - May 14: 9 wins - 1 loss
May 15 - May 27: 3 wins - 7 losses

You get the idea. They're consistent only in their inconsistency. I mentioned back in April that this Tiger team simply can't rely on the bats. The lineup is top-heavy. Believe it or not, the Tigers have five players in the top 14 in AL batting average -- V.Mart, Cabrera, Avila, Peralta, and Boesch. The big dropoff is after Boesch. A Tiger bat doesn't make an appearance on the list until #61 - Austin Jackson (.248). And then another dropoff, as no other Tiger shows up in the Top 85. To be fair, Don Kelly is batting .258, but he doesn't qualify with enough plate appearances. Regardless, the point is that the Tigers' lineup hits for average and power from the #3 spot to #7. Then it's a precipitous decline.

On this current road trip, Leyland opted to further weaken his lineup. Playing in National League parks, the lineup was already missing a DH. In the 1st game against the Dodgers, Leyland trotted out:

Austin Jackson (.248)
Casper Wells (.244)
Maggs (.172)
Cabrera (.324)
V.Mart ( .324)
Peralta (.299)
Raburn (.210)
Worth (.375)
Penny (.000)

Outside of the middle 3, where's the pop? Is it any wonder they were 2-hit?

Of course, I shouldn't harp too much on the batting. This team, we've proven, simply does not provide reliable offense. They will rise and fall based on their pitching. During that early May stretch when the team went 9-1, the starters were incredible. Even Penny and Coke pitched well. Recently, though, only Verlander has shown any semblance of reliability.

Porcello's ERA in the month of June is 4.76. Not horrible, but a full run higher than his stellar May ERA of 3.52. Scherzer's descent is even more stark. On May 16, Scherzer posted an ERA of 2.98. In his last seven starts, though, he's rocking a 7.79. Last year, we saw Scherzer experience a similar rocky road. He even spent a brief spell in the minors before rebounding with a killer 2nd half of the season. For the Tigers to contend, they desperately need Scherzer to regain that form.

The team must be happy with the performance of Penny and Coke so far. While Coke sports a dismal 1-7 record, he's still pitching to the best of his ability. He's only had one game where he gave up more than 4 runs, and, for the season, Coke has a 3.95 ERA. With better run support, Coke's move to the starting rotation would be hailed as a massive success. Penny, meanwhile, gives the Tigers decent innings for the 5th starter. He usually cruises for a few innings then suddenly loses it - reminiscent of Nate Robertson. For the season, Penny's at a 4.80 ERA, though he did have a very good May (3.24). Like Scherzer, Penny's struggled recently, but the team can't expect too much more from the dude. He's coming off massive surgery. I doubt anybody in the minor league system would do much better.

If Coke and Penny continue at their current pace, the Tigers will only contend if Porcello and Scherzer regain their dominance. We know the bats may only get five or six hits some nights. The pitching must keep them in games.

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