Monday, April 11, 2011

Slow Start Signals Sleepy Season

I was more bummed out than usual after the Tigers' ugly weekend losses. I predicted they'd take 2 of 3 against the Royals. I suppose I should be content the Tigers at least won the opener. On Saturday, the Tigers squandered a solid start by Phil Coke, as the bats couldn't do anything against journeyman Bruce Chen (lifetime stats: 49-50, 4.63 ERA). Yesterday, the Royals pummeled Rick Porcello and the rest of the Tigers' bullpen for 9 runs and 15 hits.

Why were these losses so disturbing? They drop the Tigers to last place in the Central, with a 3-6 record. In recent history, the Tigers do not fare well when they start slow:


Other than the strange '04 season, the Tigers' first nine games signal whether the team will finish with a losing record or at least a .500 record.

There were plenty of angry comments on mLive yesterday. This is not a strange event, especially after a loss, but the vitriol was at August levels, not April. Fans have abandoned this team. Sure there will still be people attending the games - the allure of a day off in the hot sun, downing tasty beverages is too much to resist - but there's not fan fervor, no belief this team will accomplish anything. The word "uninspired" was tossed around. I have to agree. Based on the player's body language, it seemed the Royals wanted it more.

Coming into the season, it was easy to pinpoint the Tigers' weaknesses. Through 9 games, they were all exposed:
  • Terrible pitching (6.19 team ERA - 2nd to last in AL)
  • No clutch hits (Team batting .194 with RISP and 2 outs - only 2 teams worse in AL)
  • Too many strikeouts at the top of the lineup (A.Jackson leads the AL with 14)
  • Dreadful fielding (13 errors - dead last in all of MLB)
Is Leyland to blame? Dombrowski? The players? Me?

There's plenty of blame for all. Leyland no longer inspires this team. They look like they're going through the motions. Leyland is committed to playing his entire bench, which forces quality bats (Maggs, Peralta) to the bench. He's also committed to Ryan Raburn. Raburn is one of two left-fielders in the entire major leagues with 2 errors. This is not an error-prone position, folks. 20 of the 30 left-fielders have ZERO errors. Yet, Raburn has 2, despite playing in the fewest games of the bunch (6). Clearly he's in the lineup due to his bat. Yet, his .227 BA with 3 RBI would not back that up.

Raburn is eating up ABs that should go to superior players like Boesch or Casper Wells. Both are 26 years old, and the team needs to find out what they can offer.

There's also a massive problem at the top of the order. Austin Jackson ranks 46th among leadoff men in the Major Leagues. There aren't 46 teams. So some teams have multiple leadoff men that are hitting better. Coincidentally, Will Rhymes also ranks 46th among #2 hitters. That's an eye-popping stat. For a team built on offense, the top of the order is dreadful.

In Jackson's defense, he provides a stabilizing force in the field. He also offers speed on the basepath, should he ever get to first. The solution to this problem is to move Jackson down in the lineup. Let somebody else leadoff. Jackson has the lowest on-base percentage on the team - the opposite of what a coach wants. Let Casper Wells lead-off. Hit Boesch in 2nd. Can't be any worse.

And as for the pitching, I honestly don't see any tangible solutions. Porcello worries me. His pitches aren't fooling anyone. If it were up to me, I'd send him down to Toledo and keep him there for a few months. Let him work out his problems under a smaller spotlight. He's nowhere close to the pitcher he was in 2009. I simply don't see him lasting more than 5 more starts. Coke, though, showed he might pan out as a starter. Of course, that opens up a gaping hole in the set-up role. The Tigers still have no credible pitcher to handle the 7th inning. For a win, the Tigers' starter must pitch through the 7th inning.

Leyland needs to shake things up. Unfortunately, that's not his strong suit. He's a let-it-ride-type manager. For a 3-6 team, that's not good.

Dave Dombrowski and Mike Ilitch, however, are not let-it-ride-type guys. I expect one of them to push for a change.

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