Defense or Goalie?

Mr. Popular in Phoenix
Popular opinion is that a hot goalie will carry a team throughout the playoffs. In recent years I've wondered if a dominant defenseman is actually more important. Prime example: Chris Pronger. It doesn't matter where this jackass plays, he simply wills his team to playoff success. He lifted the Cup with the Ducks, and made it to the Finals with Philly and Edmonton. Edmonton crashed down to Earth after they traded Pronger. And St. Louis? They made the playoffs nine straight seasons with Pronger, often with long playoff runs. In the six seasons since the Pronger trade? One playoff appearance. Obviously, the guy is a key to playoff success. And yet I doubt there's a GM (or fan) in the league who would take Chris Pronger over Buffalo goalie Ryan Miller. For some reason, the goalie gets the spotlight.

For better or worse.

Today, the Phoenix Coyotes clean out their lockers. Their season is over. The Red Wings, who ousted them last season in 7 games, did so again this year in a clean sweep. The Phoenix goalie - Ilya Brzgalov - took a ton of heat in the first three games. The Wings had little difficulty scoring - and scoring early. They did so again last night. Datsyuk carried the puck across the goal, fending off two defenders. He sent a blind pass to an onrushing (and falling) Holmstrom who flicked the puck into the top corner. It was an incredible bit of skill by Datsyuk and Holmstrom. I honestly don't know what Brzgalov could do to stop it.

That's true for most of the goals in the series. The Wings were beneficiaries of some favorable deflections in Game 3, and then the Game 3 clincher was a breakaway by Franzen. Can you really fault a goalie when the opposing player is allowed to skate in untouched?

My main point here is that there's more to hockey success and failure than just the goalie. For one thing, the Wings finished pretty darn well. I didn't see too many shots off the post. I recall in those epic series with the Avs, the Wings would usually hit the pipes about three times per game. Yet, to even hit the pipe, you've got to have a decent scoring opportunity. Against the Coyotes, the Wings had no difficulty gaining the zone and creating a quality shot. Phoenix's defensive strength was actually at the other end of the ice. They built their reputation as a strong fore-checking team. They constantly pressured the Wings in front of Howard, hoping for a turnover. Last season, the Wings struggled against the fore-check, but it was less of a hassle this time around. When the Wings could break out of their zone, the hard work was done. Without a dominant defense (or defenseman), the Coyotes had no answer.

So the Wings move on, in impressive fashion. They were the only team to sweep their opponent. Yet, honestly, we all know they got lucky with the draw. Phoenix is a quality team, but are they as dangerous as the Blackhawks? The Preds? The Ducks? The Blackhawks and Preds possess the dominant defenseman that fit nicely into "Pronger Theory". While he's not a Pronger-like a-hole, the Blackhawks' Duncan Keith is the reigning Norris Trophy winner. They've also got solid support with Brent Seabrook and Brian Campbell. The Blackhawks' coach just happens to be Joel Quinneville - the same guy who coached Pronger during his St. Louis Blues' heyday. As for the Preds, they boast Red Wing killer Shea Weber. This young kid is indeed the next generation Pronger, minus the "I'm a jerkoff" face. He's got a killer shot and a mean streak. He's truly the type of player to build a team around. In the playoffs, the Wings are best to avoid him.

The rest of the field in the West is not quite as strong with regard to elite defensemen. The Canucks boast some decent defensemen like Dan Hamhuis and Christian Ehrhoff, but they're not in Shea Weber's class. The Canucks rely on the elite goaltender theory - Roberto Luongo. The Ducks, meanwhile, are more an offensive powerhouse compared to the Pronger/Neidermeyer Cup-winning days. They still have Ryan Getzlaf and a solid goalie in Jonas Hiller, but their team is now more reliant on the scoring of Getzlaf, Bobby Ryan, the incredible Corey Perry, and the ageless Teamu Selanne. The Kings have young up-and-comer Drew Doughty and a decent goalie in Jonathan Quick, while the San Jose Sharks top blue-liner is All-star Dan Boyle.

So who's the best matchup for the Wings? Obviously, I'd like to avoid the Preds and Shea Weber. Right now, they're tied 2 games apiece with the Ducks. So thankfully one of those teams will soon be history. Same with the Canucks and Blackhawks. The Blackhawks staved off elimination Tuesday, but they're still down 3-1. Vancouver should advance without too much trouble. My guess is that the Wings will meet the Sharks, which would be another rematch from last season. The Sharks, frustrated from another disappointing playoff exit, jettisoned Evgeni Nabokov last summer. They still boast a potent offensive attack with Patrick Marleau, Heatley, and rising star Logan Couture. No doubt they can skate with the Wings, and they'll have confidence after last season's 4-1 series win. But the Wings won't be intimidated. They've got the confidence and swagger of a 4-time Cup winning side (though most of the team was only present for the '08 Cup). And more importantly, the Sharks aren't that physical, dominant defensive side.

Should my "Pronger Theory" hold true, the Preds will advance and face off with the Canucks. That grind-it-out series could take its toll on both teams.