I heard rumblings near the trade deadline in July that Kansas City was listening to offers for Greinke. Last weekend, Ken Davidoff of newsday listed Greinke as one of three big-name players that may be dealt in the offseason, with the Tigers as one of his suitors.
From a financial standpoint, the trade of Greinke makes sense. Greinke, with a 4.00 ERA is well off his Cy Young pace from last season, but he's due $13.5M each of the next two seasons. The Royals rarely make a splash in free agency, and their team is far from contending. I imagine the Royals' brass would welcome an offer to unload a potentially fading Greinke and his $27M for an army of top-tier prospects.
Yet, if I were a Royals fan, I'd be pulling my hair out. I don't believe you improve by trading away your best player. Prospects are unproven. Greinke is a Cy Young winner. Prior to this season, Greinke posted ERAs of 2.16, 3.47, and 3.69. Even this season, with his "lofty" 4.00 ERA, Greinke's WHIP stands at a solid 1.23. It's not Hall of Fame-worthy, but still good numbers for a starting pitcher. If the Royals trade him now, though, they'd be selling low. Last season, they could've commanded a King's ransom. Now, with a down season, Greinke won't bring back nearly as much. So it all depends on how desperate the Royals are to avoid paying his $27M for 2011 and 2012.
If history is any indication, the Royals will indeed be desperate. This is the organization that traded away 27 year old phenom Carlos Beltran in 2004, after he posted 20+ HRs and 100+ RBIs in 4 of his first 5 seasons. They traded 26 year old Johnny Damon in 2000, after he stole 46 bases and hit .327 with 88 RBIs. Why would they shy away from trading Greinke?
So, assuming Greinke is available, what would the Tigers have to give up? The Royals would likely ask for Scherzer, but the Tigers would surely balk. Statistically, Scherzer was better this season, and he's infinitely cheaper. No way the Tigers do that. The Royals would then want Porcello and/or Jacob Turner. After a down season, Porcello's value is significantly less, and the Tigers still see him as part of the future. They'd be more willing to part with Turner. Turner is 19 and started 23 games in single-A this year. His numbers were good - 3.28 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and an impressive 8.0 strikeouts per 9 innings. As such a young player, his ceiling is extremely high. The one problem is the Royals already have hot pitching prospects, but Turner is still the Tigers' top prospect. He'd have to be part of the deal.
The Royals would also want a big bat. They might be interested in Boesch, but that's about the best the Tigers could offer. Almost every top Tiger prospect is a pitcher. Unless KC is willing to take perhaps two pitching prospects (Jacob Turner, Andrew Oliver) and one bat (Boesch), I don't see the Tigers in the mix.
My guess is that other teams would be able to offer more, at least in terms of hitting. It's possible the Tigers would consider trading Austin Jackson for Greinke, but that seems a bit counterproductive. I don't see how trading the cornerstone centerfielder for another starting pitcher actually helps the team.
Bottom line - it all depends on what holes KC wants to fill. If they're looking for pitching prospects, the Tigers could offer a sweet deal (especially if they include Porcello). If not, Greinke will continue haunting the Tigers in another uniform.
I'd much rather the Tigers throw silly money at Cliff Lee this off-season than give up the last remaining prospect in their farm system for Greinke (Turner).
ReplyDeleteThe Tigers will, however, trade Porcello this off-season. If that is the main piece to get Grienke (especially of Boesch is the other main piece) I am all for it. I don't see Porcello being much of a starter but his stock is still kind of high around the league.
That's an interesting point, GS. I was thinking the Tigers put more stock in Porcello than Turner, but I could be mistaken. It's entirely possible Porcello and his 5.22 ERA may be more expendable.
ReplyDeleteI hesitated to place him on the trading block because he won me over last season during the one-game playoff. I figured that any 21 year old who could walk into the Lions Den of the Metrodome, pitch 5.2, giving up 1 ER, while striking out 8, was a keeper in my book.
Of course, I also felt he'd fare significantly better this season. He went from sure-thing to Galarraga-esque, in terms of consistency. Porcello might also mean more to the KC fans than an unknown prospect.
Regardless, Dombrowski has definitely shown an inclination to throw silly money at players in the past. Why not Cliff Lee? I guess we (Tiger fans) just assume that the Tigers are out of the running for top-tier FAs like Lee and Crawford. Can Dombrowski really compete with the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, and Dodgers?