Again.
The Great Tiger Nemesis - the Minnesota Twins - are positioning themselves to stomp on our Tiger dreams and aspirations yet again. The team's luck has run out. I believe the Twins will eventually overtake them, and it may come down to the last day.
My analysis:
Minnesota is currently 4 games back, with 16 games remaining. The Tigers' bats have proven they cannot overcome poor pitching, so ultimately the Tigers' fate is in the hands of the boys on the mound. Porcello has 4 starts remaining, the rest of the group (Verlander, Nate, Bonine, Jackson) has 3.
Thus far, Porcello has won roughly half his starts, so we'll assume that holds true. Count him for 2 wins. The Tigers win slightly more than half of Verlander's starts, so we'll assume he continues to pitch well. 2 more wins for Verlander. With Nate on the mound, the Tigers have no chance. He's gimpy, and, even when he was healthy, they still lost. 0 wins. Bonine is slightly better, so we'll count him for 1 win. As for Jackson, we'll I've stated on this blog many times - he's struggling. Today was no different. He may not win again, but I'll put him down for 1 win.
So, if the pitchers continue their current form, the Tigers should expect 6 wins and 10 losses the rest of the way. Minnesota will have to go 11-5 to best them. They're missing Morneau and Crede, but they're playing inspired. They'll sweep the Tigers this weekend. Take 1 of 3 against the White Sox. At KC, they'll take 2 of 3. Split with the Tigers at Comerica, then take 3 of 3 at home against KC. That's 11 wins and good enough for the AL Central Championship.
You forgot to mention all the Toledo guys that got called up and have NOT impressed. I don't think anyone has dilusions that the Tigers will make it to the World Series but they could win the pennant and that would be something. So I don't see the logic in playing so many call-ups to rest the veteran players. And if you play them, why do you play them all at once and together? And what happened to Larish?
ReplyDeleteThat's a good point. While I love Clete Thomas, he probably wouldn't see too much playing time on the Angles, Red Sox, or Yankees. He might go in as a defensive replacement.
ReplyDeleteI really think it all comes down to the pitching. In many ways, the Tiger arms have come down to earth of late (Jackson, Rodney). Yet, the formerly reliable hitters haven't increased their run production. Magglio's average now borders .300, but he's stuck on 40 RBIs. The Tigers 2nd leading RBI man is Inge with 76. On the Yanks, he'd be tied for 7th.