Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Speculation

Excellent article in mLive today on rebuilding the Pistons. Perhaps the biggest disappointment from the most recent Piston's season is that they didn't lose enough. I believe Joe D felt the Chauncey trade might actually lead to another deep playoff run, and there is certain logic to that. In ability, AI and Chauncey were quite equal at the time. Nobody expected the chemistry and morale to plummet so rapidly.

Dumars should've seen the writing on the wall back in January when the team clearly had no direction. He likely could've landed some decent deals for Tayshaun, who's stock was still relatively high. As it stands, the Pistons somehow managed to win 39 games, and that gets them the 15th pick. Last season, Chicago and Miami completely tanked it, and they were rewarded with Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley, respectively. Now those two teams are still alive in the playoffs.

It seems to me that Joe's best plan of action would be to tinker somewhat with the lineup this offseason, but reserve the majority of the overhaul for 2010. For one thing, 2010 offers a better free agent class, and, if the Pistons tank next season, they could land a top 3 pick. Yes, it would mean another painful, losing season, but at least the team will have a direction. My guess is that players like Tayshaun and Rip have no desire to be part of a rebuilding process, so they'll likely be dealt.

With the plethora of talented guards on the Pistons roster, Dumars will need to focus almost entirely on big men, especially with the assumed departure of McDyess. Boozer is the likely target, and I've mentioned before my preference for Tyson Chandler. Either of those players would be dramatic improvements from the current lot. Having an actual inside presence should also help Stuckey's play.

And then there's Curry... Dumars evidently met with Curry yesterday, and Curry is still the coach of the Pistons. Retaining Curry only makes sense if Dumars plans to tank next season. If he wants to truly rebuild this summer, the team needs a real coach.

Stats

Fascinating game from the Tigers last night, at least from a statistical standpoint. Edwin Jackson threw 6 innings of shutout baseball. When the vaunted Tigers relief pitchers came to the rescue in the 7th inning, they proceeded to give up 10 runs. One of my favorite stats for relief pitchers is the IS% - Inherited Score Percentage. It's the percent of runners on base when a pitcher enters a game that subsequently score. This stat is more valuable than ERA for a reliever. If Nate enters the game with bases loaded and two outs and gives up a triple, who cares how many outs he gets after that? He gave up a freakin' triple, scoring three runs that get charged to the previous pitcher! Nate's ERA may remain low, but he's clearly not doing the job. Anyhoo, the Tigers bullpen and their respective IS%:

Juan Rincon 100%

Nate Robertson 75%

Brandon Lyon 63%

Eddie Bonine 60%

League Average 39%

Bobby Seay 20%

Countering that embarrassing statistic is Seay and Perry who are 10 for 10 in "Holds" - meaning they held the lead. And Rodney, somehow, is 4 for 4 in save situations. Either the Tigers are extemely unluckey with their IS%, or they're hanging by the skin of their teeth with these successful holds. My guess is that the more they have to rely on Rodney, the more they'll regret it.

2 comments:

  1. I dont know whats wrong with Nate but maybe the new young kids need more time in the majors. By the way, where is Bonderman?

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  2. Nate needs a new team. Or use him in mop-up duty only - when Verlander gets pummeled for 6 runs in the 2nd inning, it's Gum Time!

    Last I heard about Bonderman, he was scheduled to start pitching off the mound in mid-April. My guess is that he's at least two months away. I saw him pitch two solid innings in spring training, so I believe he's still got it. As for Zumaya, as for Nate, as for Dontrelle, well... they need a miracle.

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