Wednesday, July 6, 2011

Inconsistency Reigns Supreme


The Tigers up-and-down season took another downturn last night. Verlander had not lost a game since May. Yet, it's hard to win when the offense doesn't score a run. In fact, the offense mustered just two hits.

Last night was Justin Verlander vs Dan Haren - two of baseball's best. The final was a 1-0 victory for the Angels. It was a telling game for the Tigers. They possess one of the top aces in the game, but their bats are not elite. When the middle of the order struggles, the rest of the lineup never picks up the slack.

Compared to other major league teams, the Tigers' leadoff hitter ranks 29 of 30 in batting average, but earns 2nd place overall in terms of most strikeouts. The Tigers' 2nd hitter (a hodgepodge of people) ranks 20th for batting average. Then things pick up a bit. The 3rd hitter ranks 14th, thanks to Brennan Boesch. The 4th - 6th batters all rank in the top 3. The Tigers' lineup is clearly a case of the haves vs the have-nots. I suppose that's why they landed a couple All-stars, despite the team not being that great overall.

So the Tigers reach the midpoint of the season 1.5 games out of first. Chicago is just 3.5 games out. Minnesota is in 4th place, 7.0 games behind. Despite their favorable standing, I just can't see the Tigers finishing in 1st. Player-for-player, they are not as good as the White Sox or Twins. Every team in the Central has holes, but I honestly doubt a player like Ryan Raburn would even make the White Sox or Twins roster.

And speaking of Raburn, Mrs. Nofrownmotown wondered how many times he's ended an inning. I don't have that exact stat, but I did find that, with runners in scoring position and two outs, Raburn is hitting a scorching .139. Just so I'm not piling on Raburn, I should add the Boesch is hitting an identical .139 in that scenario. Cabrera, V. Mart, Maggs, and Peralta are all over .300. Interestingly, Casper Wells has 12 at-bats in that scenario and managed an impressive 5 hits. Perhaps Leyland should consider moving Wells deeper in the lineup as opposed to batting #2.

These stats, of course, don't really amount to much. Booting Raburn from the lineup or moving Wells to #8 won't win this team the pennant. It would just be rearranging the chairs on the Titanic. The Tigers are not a very good team. They're a .500 team. No more, no less.

Red Wings
Over the past week, Ken Holland opted to pass on signing a defenseman to a long-term, expensive contract. While other GMs handed out five, six year deals, Holland made just three conservative moves for the defense:

1. He re-signed Ericsson for 3 year/$10M
2. He signed Mike Commodore, formerly of the Blue Jackets, for just 1 year/$1M
3. He plucked Ian White away from the Sharks for 2 years/$5.75M

I'd say the Ericsson signing was a bit steep. There's no way he should be earning more money than Kronwall (who will make $3M next season). Yet, it was a players' market this year. Every team wanted to sign one of the top defensemen. Even aging d-men like Ed Jovanovski (35 years old) got a 4 year deal for $4.25M per season.

The forwards also made out well. Ville Leino, who scored all of 19 goals last year, signed a whopping 6 year/$27M contract with the Sabres. If Leino was still on the Wings, he'd be earning more than every single player except Pavel, Z, and Lidstrom.

Holland also opted to pass on every big name forward. He re-signed Patrick Eaves and Drew Miller, which we all expected. With such conservative moves, Holland kept the Wings $7M under the cap. This is somewhat amazing considering they did bring back the core of their team, plus Ian White and Commodore. White had an impressive run with the Sharks during the last playoffs. He was very effective against the Wings. He's a right-handed shot who could potentially replace Rafalski on the power play. Commodore was a more interesting signing. He and Babcock feuded when the were both with the Ducks. As a former Blue Jacket, we saw Commodore all the time. He was a gritty, effective d-man in the mold of Adam Foote. Last year, Commodore had a tough season, spending much of it in the minors. I have no doubt he'll rebound as a Red Wing. Will either new signing replace Rafalski? No. Rafalski was a rare talent and 2-time All-star. These guys are plug-ins, but they should definitely be able to replace the 2010-11 version of Rafalski.

With $7M still to spend, Holland can make a big splash at the trade deadline.

No comments:

Post a Comment