Tuesday, June 1, 2010

Things aren't going well
Ah, to reminisce about May 21st. Life for the Tigers was so rosy back then. They were in 1st place and sported a 24-17 record. Brennan Boesch was the talk of the town, and even Dontrelle Willis showed signs that he may stick around.

Nine games later, the Tigers are 26-24, 4.5 games behind the Twins. They lost seven of those nine games, averaging a meager 3.2 runs/game. To make matters worse, that average includes Sunday's 10-run explosion. Take that one game away, and they averaged 2.3 runs. Most of those runs came courtesy of Miguel Cabrera. The astonishing Cabrera had 12 RBIs during that stretch and is singlehandedly carrying the offense. Cabrera's offensive explosion could be enough if the pitching weren't so dreadful. Perhaps "dreadful" is too strong a word. The team isn't giving up double-digit runs, but they're doing just enough to lose.

A few days ago, WDFN's Sean Baligian asked his audience, "Who's the most overvalued Tiger?" It was an interesting question, and, for me, the answer was quite clear. Most fans cited Brandon Inge, but I don't think many Tiger fans expect much of his weak bat. He's perhaps overpriced but not overvalued. Cabrera? Magglio? If anything, those guys are undervalued. They hit for power, average, and often in the clutch. They're the heart of the Tigers' offense. Brennan Boesch? Nope. It may be Leyland's bizarre decision to bench the young man that contributed to the Tigers' power outtage against the A's.

So who's the most overvalued Tiger? Verlander. Tiger fans believe Verlander to be a top-tier pitcher - one of the best in the AL. It's true that he's a very good pitcher and at times a Cy Young talent. But he's inconsistent. During the 2-7 swoon, Verlander sported a 5.1 ERA. In fact, Verlander has given up 3 runs or more in 7 of his 11 starts this season. How many times have these guys given up 3 runs or more this year?
Roy Halladay - 2
Johan Santana - 3
Zack Grienke - 4
Tim Lincecum - 4

Of course, 3 runs is not normally a big deal. If you pitch 6 innings and give up only 3 runs, you still qualify for a "quality start." I think, though, the Tigers (and Verlander) believe Verlander to be a shut-down starter. If they simply wanted JV to pile up the quality starts, they wouldn't have paid him $80million. They believe him to be in that rarefied group of aces I listed above. They need him to pitch like an All-star. When the offense can't get a hit, they need JV to pitch like he did on May 19th - one earned run.

Verlander, though, is just part of the problem. No starting pitcher has fared well this season. Scherzer pitched great on Sunday, but only after repeated poor performances forced the team to send him to Toledo. Porcello suffers from the sophomore slump, Bonderman - like Verlander - has no consistency, and Dontrelle is no longer on the team. No doubt y'all have heard the D-train made it's final stop last Friday. After struggling with control all evening, Dontrelle parted in the sixth inning despite only giving up three runs. Yet, the writing was on the wall. In his 5.1 innings, Dontrelle gave up 9 hits and 3 walks and, in general, had alarming difficulty finding the strikezone. He leaves the Tigers with a mere 2 wins in his three seasons. It's a terribly sad story, and I do honestly wish him well. Galarraga will take his place in the rotation.

So, really, are the Tigers in a slump or are they just not very good?

They've got nine games coming up against AL Central rivals. Perhaps that will be their opportunity to turn it around.

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