Monday, March 1, 2010

Stock Watch

The Pistons finished their 4-game road trip losing 3 straight. Their final game - which was mercifully not on TV - saw the Pistons blow a 13 point lead and shoot 42% from the free throw line. The game before, the Pistons played valiantly against the Nuggets but could not offset the Nugs 37-20 free-throw advantage. The road trip was a microcosm of the season -- the team showed the occasional sign of competence but ultimately fell short - even against dreadful competition.

As the season winds to a close (23 games remain), Joe D needs to examine how to rebuild the team into a winner. Who should stay and who should go? This list is not based solely on talent. It also takes into account the player's contract/trade-ability. In other words, some players should go, but their contract says they're staying.

Building Blocks
Ben Wallace - It's a sad indictment when the cornerstone of the future is a 35 year old. Few thought Ben had much left in the tank, but he proved this season he's still an effective player in this league. He's the best Piston defender, and his leadership sets the tone for how the Pistons should play. Currently, he's playing for the veteran's minimum, and, despite his age, Joe D should reward Ben with a hefty raise in the off-season. Any chance at a successful '10-'11 campaign begins with a commitment to Big Ben. He may not last much past next season, but the team should keep him around as long as possible.

Rip Hamilton - I thought he was a goner in the offseason. It made no sense to sign Ben Gordon to such a lucrative contract with Rip Hamilton on the hook for four more seasons. But the deed is done, and the Pistons are stuck with the shooting guard logjam. While Rip struggled mightily with injuries and his shot this year, he's recently shown he's simply the best player on the team. He's the one Piston who seems to know how to win. He's fearless with an exceptionally high basketball IQ. Piston fans complain that the entire team must be catered to Rip's running-off-screens-style, but, if it's working, who cares? He doesn't hog the ball, and he's perhaps the best passer on the team. Why entertain the notion of trading this guy? Rip brings so much to the table that it would be foolish to think Joe D would get equal value in return.

Jonas Jerebko - Jerebko is proof that the rookie league should not account for much. He was the worst of the three rooks coming out of Vegas, but he's since proven he's far-and-away the best. He's started 50 games this year, no small feat for a 2nd rounder. All season, he crashed the offensive boards with Dennis Rodman-style abandon, and, as a Big Ben disciple, he's a committed defender. Recently, he's hit the 3-ball at a 41% clip, showing that more growth is on the horizon. Just a great find by Joe D.

Austin Daye - While he's hardly at the top of the pecking order, the smooth-shooting forward showed an offensive acumen not found often around these parts. He's a complete defensive liability, mostly due to his lack of strength and inexperience. With a few years of seasoning, Daye could average 18/game. He has NBA range and NBA smarts. Just needs time.

Stuck with the Pistons
Ben Gordon - I was first in line to praise this signing. I loved Gordon's ability to score at will. As a Bull, Gordon would put up 30 at the drop of a hat. Those days are long gone. We're 60 games into the season, and Gordon has yet to find his groove. The team can't trade him because nobody wants to pay his 4yr/$47million contract. So they're stuck with each other. For forever. It may not turn out to be so bad, as Gordon is a huge talent. Yet, with a better player like Rip Hamilton in his way, BG will find minutes hard to come by.

Charlie V - Fans in Toronto and Milwaukee are snickering. They knew that Joe D was foolish to spend so much on the poster child of inconsistency. With an array of post-up skills worthy of Adrian Dantley, Charlie V can score at will. Yet, he'll go days, weeks, months without turning it on. He began the season as a starter and has slowly worked his way down the bench. Jonas Jerebko and Jason Maxiell - both significantly less naturally talented - eat up his minutes because the team seems to instantly suck when Charlie V hits the court. Yet, the team is stuck with him. What other GM would possibly take on his 4yr/$30million contract? If he could somehow regain his footing in the rotation, Charlie V could be a valuable weapon off the bench. I simply don't see it happening.

Folks, those are your Detroit Pistons, at least for the foreseeable future. The team has $120million committed to that group (Hamilton, Daye, Gordon, Villanueva) over the next three seasons. Who's left?

Good but trade-able
Rodney Stuckey - With Rip out, Stuckey was the Piston's best player. He's improved quite a bit this year, especially on the defensive end. What he lacks, unfortunately, is the killer instinct near the hoop. He simply can't finish, and his shooting percentage attests to it (40.5% for the season). I do believe he's a talent, and, according to 82games.com, the Pistons suffer the most when he's off the court. Because of this talent and an agreeable contract, he's a trade-able commodity. The Pistons may benefit best by shipping Stuckey off for a big man. Stuckey was the only untouchable during Joe D's famous "sacred cows" speech, but,if Joe D can get some talent in return, he'd have to consider dealing the guard.

Jason Maxiell - The Pistons are on the hook for $15million over the next three years to Maxiell. With the way he's played lately, that's a fair contract. Maxiell adds value as 3rd big man. He's not a starter, but he can compete against the opposition's subs. He added a reliable mid-range jumper to his repetoire this year, and he's still relatively young (27). Due to the contract's 3-year commitment, my guess is that other teams will not want to deal for him. Yet, if they do, Dumars would have to listen. Maxiell is a decent talent who may yield something valuable in return. The Pistons have painfully few players that fit in that category.

Tayshaun Prince - His back injury signifantly downgraded his stock. Without that injury, he'd likely be playing for a contender right now. Durability was Prince's calling card. Not anymore. Yet, with the way he's been playing lately, GMs may forget about his 33 games on the IR. He averaged 14 points, 6 boards, and 4 assists in February. He was a key cog to the efficient starting five. Why is he not part of the Building Blocks? Because his salary expires in one year. Like Stuckey and Maxiell, Prince is the only other Piston to potentially entice another GM. The Pistons have so many holes to fill that they desperately need to consider all offers. If Prince sticks with the Pistons, I wouldn't mind, but I don't see it happening. Next year, barring another injury, his stock will rise since he's a decent player with an expiring contract. That could yield Joe D a first-rounder. And it would also open up minutes for Austin Daye.

Future Uncertain
Will Bynum - Just a few months ago, Bynum was the future Piston point guard. He made Stuckey expendable. Then Bynumite went out with a sprained ankle. Then he sprained his other ankle. Then he pulled a muscle. Then a black eye. The dude could not stay healthy. And he hasn't been the same since. To his credit, he's still a capable passer, but he's part of the Bench Brigade that loses leads, momentum, and fan interest. In November, the dude averaged 15 points, 5 assists, and was a hounding defender. In February, it plummeted to 6 points and 4 assists while shooting 40%. That's not going to earn him a major payday. If Bynum somehow turns it around in the remaining 20 games (like he did last year), Dumars will have one more reason to shop Stuckey. If not, Bynum may be looking at another one-year deal as a backup.

Please No Mas
Chris Wilcox - The bad news is that Wilcox is under contract next year. The good news is that he may opt out. I doubt he'll find a team willing to pay him $3million, but ya never know. He is a talented big man, but he's a dreadful fit in Detroit. For the season, the Pistons have been outscored by 158 points while Wilcox was on the court. Ouch.

Kwame - I didn't mind him as a starter. He was a capable defender. But, for whatever reason, Kuester did not like him. If he's not in Kuester's plans, he's not likely in Joe D's plans. He's also out of a contract, so he's gone.

The Suits
Kuester - Yes, he was saddled with injuries, so maybe he deserves another year. Yet, he does not seem to get the most out of his players, nor does he put them in a position to succeed. That's a tall task, I know. I would've thought he could find a role for Charlie V and Ben Gordon, but he's (and those players) failed. Kuester does deserve credit for rejuvenating Ben Wallace and unearthing Jerebko. Another year? Sure. But only if a better candidate isn't available.

Joe D - When he misses, he misses big. The Darko draft, the Chauncey trade, and the Gordon/Villanueva signings crippled this franchise. He brought them a championship in '04, but now they're in an even worse situation than when he started in '01. He deserves much of the blame. But is there anybody else out there that would do a better job? I doubt it. With the ownership in doubt, nothing is certain with these Pistons, but my guess is that he'll be back.

Conclusion
The commited salaries dictate most of the Pistons' future. Next year's roster may not look much different. If Joe D makes the least-possible moves, the rotation will look like this:

PG - Stuckey, Bynum
SG - Hamilton, Gordon
SF - Prince, Daye
PF - Jerebko, Maxiell (DRAFT PICK - Derrick Favors?)
C - Wallace, Villanueva

That roster's not going to excite many people. If they stay healthy, though, they may sneak into the playoffs. That's a big IF.

Now, if Joe D maximizes his moves, the roster would significantly change. In that scenario, Stuckey gets moved for a big man (say, David West). They might have to throw-in Jason Maxiell too. Then Prince is moved for a 1st rounder in 2011. The updated roster:

PG - Bynum
SG - Hamilton, Gordon
SF - Jerebko, Daye
PF - David West, (DRAFT PICK - Derrick Favors)
C - Wallace, Villanueva

I have to admit, that roster looks like the worst team in the league. Yet, most Piston fans would love a Prince-for-First-Rounder deal, and they'd also love a Stuckey/Maxiell for West swap. Be careful what you wish for...

2 comments:

  1. I dont understand why Maxiell got such a big contract. If memory serves, he wasnt bad off the bench and I remember him asking what he could do to get more minutes. Whats not to like about that work ethic...and thats commendable but is it $15 mil worthy?

    Do you offer a contract on past performance or future returns? If thats the case, Jerebko is due for a huge payday.

    But lets take heed. So many rookies have faltered their sophomore year from their potential: Galaraga, Leino and Ericsson...so hopefully, GMs will wait a little before signing big contracts to rookies. Lets see how they fare after their second year.

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  2. I've found that a player's draft status tends to impact future contracts as much as anything.

    A 2nd rounder in hoops usually has to exhibit true greatness to warrant a large contract. The NBA is littered with talented 2nd rounders who were let go by their initial team (who clearly undervalued them). Gilbert Arenas. Mehmet Okur. Carlos Boozer. Mo Williams.

    In Mo's case, he was left off the All-star team last season, despite a career year. An injury allowed him to eventually sneak on, but the 2nd round stigma followed him.

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