Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Jermaine Dye

While his name will not make many headlines, Jermaine Dye will hit the free agent market this season. Like many other White Sox, Dye made a career (or at least a partial career) out of destroying the Tigers.

The burly right hander, along with Konerko and Thome, was part of the Whitesox fearsome threesome - a power-hitting 1-2-3 juggernaut. Yet, the Sox never fully embraced Dye. Konerko was the fan favorite. Whenever Dye struggled, his name was floated around the league as potential trade bait. Now that he's a free agent, I can't imagine him re-signing with the Sox. As a 16-year veteran, he won't come cheap, despite his falling numbers. With all that said, I wholeheartedly believe the Tigers should pursue him.

Yes, I know the last thing the Tigers need is an aging, slow, right-handed hitter. But, despite his dip in form, he still outperformed almost all the Tigers in 2008. On a dreadful White Sox team, Dye hit .250, with 27 home runs and 81 RBIs. His on-base percentage of .340, would put him 3rd on the Tigers - ahead of Granderson and Polanco. Furthermore, he's got a rocket-arm to boot. While Magglio in Dye's regular right-field position, Dye would have to switch to left. He's played left field at times during his career, and he might not accept the switch. Yet, having the rangy Granderson in centerfield may make the switch more palatable.

As much as anything the signing of Dye would signal to the fans that Dombrowski and the Tigers are still hungry. For such a slow team, the Tigers hit with very little power. Dye could offer Cabrera some protection hitting fifth.

Now, it's possible that Dombrowski is sold on Ryan Raburn as the everyday left fielder. After seeing Raburn's troubles in the outfield, he may need one more season of part-time duty to familiarize himself. The Tigers tried to trade RyRay last spring training, and his trade value may be higher than ever. Who knows... maybe a national league team would part with a young reliever for RyRay.

If the Tigers start the season with Raburn in left, I suppose it would be just reward for a player who's battled hard for the team over the years. He's accepted whatever role they've asked of him and never complained. It's easy to pull for a guy like that. Yet, with the imminent departure of Polanco, the Tigers will need to augment the offense. If not, I foresee a last-place finish.

Monday, November 9, 2009

A bit of resolve

It's early in the season, yes. There are tons of new faces that will take time to gel. And Rip and Tayshaun remain sidelined with injuries. Yet, Sunday against the Sixers was a winnable game. If the Pistons didn't pull it out, I would've been seriously worried about a lottery-bound season.

We all know this is a transition year, but it's the same thing with Philly. I figured, if the Pistons couldn't take a home game against mediocre competition, who could they beat? Well, the team answered the call. The Pistons' defense set the tone early, limiting Philly to one shot and causing significant turnovers. But the Pistons often returned the favor on the other side of the court. Neither team shot very well, though the Pistons maintained a 3-6 point lead throughout most of the game.

With Tayshaun out, rookies Jonas Jerebko and Austin Daye played significant minutes. Jerebko fared slightly better, scoring 10 with 5 boards (no turnovers). Daye has a more NBA-ready offensive game, but Jerebko is a real pest on defense. He gets in passing lanes, dives for loose balls, and doesn't seem intimidated at all by the big stars. That's why he's starting.

In the previous game, I was really impressed with Daye's shooting touch. He has a quick, smooth release, but, against Philly, he missed all four three-pointers. Most of Jerebko's points were on put-backs. So, neither is really part of the offense yet, but they're learning. With the scaled-back roster, the Piston offense runs through the three guards and Charlie V. Against the weaker NBA teams, that may just be enough. Gordon is the best scorer, but he's also an able passer. In crunch time, the Pistons have exhibited a willingness to feed whoever has the hot hand. Lately, it's been Gordon or Bynum, though Charlie V was absolutely unstoppable against Orlando. As for Stuckey, he's not quite hit his stride. In the Orlando loss, he shot 9/18, but was back to 5/15 against Philly. For what it's worth, he only turned it over 2 times, so he's doing well as a ball-handler.

Yesterday, Philly took a 4pt lead with about six minutes to go. I was ready for the team to collapse. Willie Green was red-hot, and the Pistons couldn't keep pace. But the stellar Piston defense came to life... as did Ben Gordon and Bynum. Philly didn't score another field goal the rest of the way. Igoudala did manage a couple free throws at the 2:21 mark, but that was it. Meanwhile, Little Ben hit a few jumpers, Bynum hit a shot and then fed Charlie V for a perfect back-door layup. The Pistons finished on an impressive 15-4 run. It was great to see them step up during crunch time. Those kids - Ben Gordon and Will Bynum - have that winner mentality. They just seem to play their best when the game is on the line. Final score was 88-81 Pistons.

One more note: the Pistons outrebounded a good rebounding team 51-39, led by Big Ben's 16. Solid. Next up is Charlotte, another winnable game. My thinking is that the team has to focus on winning these home games against the less-than NBA squads. They're going to lose the majority of their road games, so, if only for the team's mental state and locker-room harmony, they've got to take care of business at home.

Double loss for Red Wings
One thing is clear - the Red Wings absolutely blow when there's a pregame celebration. In any sort of festive hockey atmosphere (banner raising, Hall of fame celebrating, Sweden playing), the Red Wings will lay an egg. Despite winning just two games all season, the Toronto Maple Leafs completely owned the Wings Saturday night. It was ugly.

To make matters worse, the Wings lost another forward. This time it was Jason Williams, who left with a broken leg. He's out at least two months. Ken Holland insists he won't make a trade, so it's time to call up another youngster. Glancing at the Griffins roster, there's no sure-fire pick. They've got a few guys scoring goals, 20 year old Jeremy Williams and 25 year old Jamie Tardif. The Wings normally let the youngsters stay in the minors, so my guess is we're looking at Tardif.

Friday, November 6, 2009

Tiger off-season

Some interesting quotes from Tiger free agents here. It's looking more and more likely that Polanco is history. According to the article, Dombrowski already said that minor leaguer Scott Sizemore is ready to step in. That's a pretty dangerous assumption, in my opinion. Sizemore is completely unproven. Polanco's bat and glove were crucial to the team last season, and, in the 2nd half of the season, he carried the team. At this point, it seems Dombrowski has accepted that another team will outbid him.

Adam Everett appears to be a safer bet to return. Only a $1million investment last year, I expect Everett to make between $1.5-$2million. Or he may get a multi-year deal for less per year.

As for Rodney and Lyon, both will get raises. Neither Rodney nor the Tigers are saying they want to part ways, but I just have a feeling Dombrowski will offer Lyon first. He'll probably offer Lyon something like a $12 million over 2 years. If Lyon agrees, Rodney will have to look elsewhere. Lyon will close and one of the youngsters will have to step in as set-up man (Perry? Fu Te Ni? Seay?... gulp... Zumaya?).

The biggest problem facing the Tigers, though, is not impending free agency. Sure, they may lose Polanco, Rodney, and Lyon, but they're also damn close to losing fan interest. After such a dreadful end to the '09 campaign, on the heels of the over-hyped last-place '08 squad, the Tigers are flirting with fan apathy.

Dumars positioned himself somewhat nicely to address fan apathy by jettisoning most of the troublesome core and bringing in fresh faces. The Pistons may struggle mightily all year, but Dumars created at least the illusion of a new beginning. For the Dombrowski, he's stuck with the same old team. GMs in baseball, once they commit to a contract, are bound by it through thick and thin. So, he's got little wiggle room with so much money tied up in the veterans who cashed in after '06 - you know the names (Bonderman, Nate, Maggs, Guillen). The Tigers can't bring in a Ben Gordon. Heck, they can barely afford a Chris Wilcox.

Next year, we'll be looking at a weakened Tiger team filling the holes with minor leaguers. It's gonna be a tough sell. The great purge will happen after 2010. But, man, that's a long time to wait, and, as the great sage Caputo said, "A season is a terrible thing to waste."

Thursday, November 5, 2009

Odds and Ends

I did not get a chance to watch the Pistons disappointing loss to the Raptors last night. Justin Rogers, another mLive blogger, offers some superior insights here.

The Pistons again played without Rip and Tayshaun, though I'm not sure if it would've made much of a difference. The key players in Toronto's offense were Bosh and Bargniani, who both shot 50% with 47 combined points. Bosh alone got to the line 20 times. So, for some reason, the excellent low-post defense provided by Big Ben and Kwame the previous night did not work.

Upon looking at the box score, one stat demands attention - Toronto scored a shocking 44 points in the second quarter. Against Ok City and Milwaukee, the 3rd quarter was the trouble spot. Against Orlando and Toronto, it was the 2nd. Logic would dictate that, with Rip and Tay out of the lineup, the bench would be severely crippled. So, I shouldn't be too surprised that the deep bench players getting run in the 2nd would get run over. With all the new faces, Kuester still doesn't have a rotation. He's not sure where to use Austin Daye, Chris Wilcox, Jason Maxiell, or Dajuan Summers. Kwame and Bynum are the only defined-role dudes off the bench (and, of course, Little Ben, when Rip comes back). Jerebko appears to have earned the coach's trust at the backup 3-spot, but he may feel some pressure from Austin Daye over time. Both have massive difficulty on defense. JJ earned 5 fouls in 25 minutes, while Daye got 5 fouls in 16. That's dreadful. As a fan, you just hope you see progress.

And progress is the key word for Stuckey this season. So far? Not much. He's attacking the basket with vigor, but 5-18 shooting really sucks. For the season, he's at 34%. That won't get it done. His aggressiveness is paying off on the defensive end with surging rebound totals. Last night he had 10. The previous night 9. This only fuels the flame that he shouldn't be running the point. I'm not in that camp. He's a good ball handler and only had one turn last night. His assist totals are low, but I think he's trying to develop into a Chauncey-type PG. Control the game, work the offense. Right now, the coach's are obviously telling him to attack.

If December rolls around and he's still shooting 34%, they might want to consider starting Bynum. He's a better defender and passer.

Wings
I guess it's only news when the Red Wings lose. Over the weekend, they beat Calgary away (always difficult) and then shut out Boston at home. They accomplished the shut out missing both Rafalski and Ericksson (flu). You can't give up a total of 1 goal over 120 minutes by accident. The Wings are playing better defense, and they're staying out of the box - only 5 total penalties over the 2 games.

I suppose it should also be noted that Jimmy Howard did not see the net in either win. Folks can complain all they want about Osgood, but he's the team's only professional-grade goalie. Lately, he's stood tall.

Interestingly, the Wings remain tied for 11th in the Western Conference. I know it's foolish to look at standings after a mere 13 games, but it does illustrate how the poor start has set them back. Unless they catch fire, they could be in for a season-long fight for playoff position. In the West, decent teams miss the playoffs every season. Next up is rebuilt San Jose, off to a hot start.

Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Strange, strange game, and some home cookin'

Last night, the Pistons beat the Magic. Since they've won something like 14 of 15 against the Magic at home, that shouldn't be a big deal. But consider the following:
  • No Rip
  • No Tayshaun (breaking a 6 year streak!)
  • A 37% field-goal percentage
  • Only 8 assists all game
  • 0-6 from 3pt land
  • And Orlando is the reigning Eastern Conference Champion and entered the game 3-0

The win didn't make much sense. I noted to Mrs. Thatballdontlie that the Pistons "out-efforted" Memphis in the first game of the season. With so many new faces, that's the only way they're going to beat the more-established squads. Every team in the NBA has talent, but not everybody gives the effort. I think that's what Ben brought back to the team. If somebody's dogging it, they gotta answer to Big Ben. Who on last year's squad would hold a teammate accountable? Perhaps McDyess, but that's about it.

So they've gave good effort. Stuckey was impressive again in the 1st half. He had some highlight drives to the hoop - the type of plays that remind people why he might be an All-star someday. But his production dropped off again in the 2nd and reminded people why he's not close to an All-star right now. The starters did a fine job of controlling the game in the 1st and getting Howard off to a slow start. Stuckey and Little Ben attacked him fearlessly, and Howard picked up some quick fouls. Big Ben and Kwame effectively contained Howard on the defensive end, and the dude finished with only 8pts in 17 minutes.

The Piston subs, though, did not match the effectiveness of the starters. Orlando erased a 7pt deficit and looked on the verge of blowing it open in the 3rd. A few hoops by Ben Gordon kept the game close, and it was nip/tuck the rest of the way. Orlando, as they do, shot a ton of 3s. The Pistons were fortunate that they missed many open looks. In crunch time, little Will Bynum caught fire. He hit a few jumpers and then wanted to challenge the Orlando big men with some drives to the hoop. Gortat hit Bynum in the eye, and Bynum lost his vision for a few minutes. He returned to the bench looking like De Niro in Raging Bull. Miraculously, Bynum re-entered the game and carried the Pistons the rest of the way. Orlando hit the wall offensively at 77 points, thanks in large part to some fortunate calls from the refs. On key possessions late, Orlando was whistled for offensive fouls. Those, combined with Howard and Gortat fouling out, greatly impacted the game. Orlando finished with 30 fouls versus 17 for Detroit. That stat may be skewed somewhat because Orlando hoisted 35 three-pointers and rarely attacked the hoop. Yet, I can't recall a game when the Pistons ever received such favorable whistles, despite their improved defense. It made me wonder if the mere presence of Rasheed painted the team in a poor light. Who knows.

Stuckey and Little Ben hit some key foul shots late and iced the game away. Solid effort by all the guards, including a legend-building night from Bynum. He didn't light up the Magic for 40, but notching 20 points in 28 minutes with a bloody eye is pretty sweet.

A few other notes... Jonas Jerebko started at small forward and had a quiet night. Did not contribute offensively but did a solid job keeping Vince Carter on the perimeter. Jason Maxiell earned a DNP-CD, bringing back memories of the Curry-era. Maxiell isn't Karl Malone, but shouldn't he at least get some burn? Austin Daye appeared briefly for 4 minutes and did not excite. Chucky Atkins also saw the floor and somehow earned a plus/minus of -6 despite only playing 2 minutes. Speaking of plus/minus, Little Ben led the team with a +15. He quietly scored 23, while shooting 60% (and 11/11 from the stripe). The dude is just good, folks.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Orlando looming

Things could get worse before they get better for the Pistons. They will likely regret not taking care of business against Milwaukee and Oklahoma City because tougher teams loom. While both Milwaukee and OkCity might be improved, the Pistons were still in control of those games at halftime. They let significant leads slip away. With two games against Orlando and an improved Toronto team ahead, the Pistons could easily drop to 1-5.

Piston fans are not used to losing. It will be a tough road for rookie coach Kuester. And the necomers like Charlie V and Little Ben will feel even more pressure. Yet, I think that's a good thing. It will be a good test for Kuester and the team's chemistry. Larry Brown was able to keep the team focused during tough stretches in '04. As a Larry-disciple Kuester should illustrate the same calm. The team needs to stay united and focused. The main worry I have is for them to get "Lionized" - i.e. used to losing. Rip, Big Ben and Little Ben hate losing. That much I know for sure. The other folks? The jury is still out.

Everybody agrees that this season shouldn't be about wins/losses. It should be about setting the groundwork for another run at the title. Establish an identity and roles for each player. I'll be watching flow on offense and a consistent commitment to D (and not just from Big Ben). From what I can tell, people in Detroit are intrigued by this team. They're pleased with Little Ben so far and think the Pistons have some potential. If the Pistons can avoid any massive losing streaks, fan interest will remain constant.

If not, we'll be overrun by foolish trade scenarios to land Bosh. Please, no more.

Monday, November 2, 2009

Work in Progress

As mentioned on PH's excellent blog, there are some positives despite the Pistons' 1-2 start. Opening up with Memphis, OkCity, and Milwaukee, even an average Piston team would go 3-0. So, how are there possibly any positives?

The defense, thought to be the team's main deficiency, has held up. It's been way more consistent than last season. Ben Gordon's rep portrayed him to be a horrible defender, but I saw him team with Big Ben on a very effective 2-man trap. He exhibits a willingness and talent to ballhawk. Nobody has lit the Pistons up for over 100 yet, though Milwaukee did explode for 36 in the decisive 3rd quarter. Overall, props to the defense.

On offense, Ben Gordon displayed why he earned the major cash. He's been All-star calibre. Unfortunately, Ben is the only consistent offensive threat. Other folks haven't quite stepped up. Stuckey showed signs of both his dominance and ineffectiveness. Rip, in his one game, was great, but he can't help the team with a gimpy ankle.

Strangely, this team dominated out of the gate in all three games. But, at the first sign of resistance, they folded. Greg Kelser said that when the opponent's have ramped up defensive pressure, the Pistons stop passing the ball. They become a one-on-one team. Assists in the first half against Milwaukee were 12. Only 4 the rest of the way.

Even the worst teams tend to make runs at home. Milwaukee made their run, and the Piston couldn't counter. Same thing against Oklahoma City. The Pistons are a work-in-progress, and we'll see if Kuester can get the team to play a full 48 minutes. Their lack of familiarity with each other may contribute to the panic mode. It's possible that, over the course of the season, they'll develop consistency. That will be the determining factor for Kuester.