Friday, April 29, 2011

12-13 Never Felt So Bad

Leave it to the Tigers to destroy all the happy feelings of the weekend by getting swept by the worst offense in the American League... at home.

I knew this offense was in trouble against the Mariners. For all their faults, the Mariners can pitch. I thought the Tigers could too. Yet, in Game 1, Phil Coke got blistered for 7 runs in 4 innings. The next game, Seattle's Erik Bedard took his 7+ ERA and held the Tigers to just 1 run over 7 innings, while Tigers' ace Justin Verlander surrendered 4 runs over 6. In perhaps the most disturbing trend, Joaquin Benoit gave up 2 runs late. Perhaps he just wasn't used to pitching in a wasted effort. Yesterday, Brad Penny gave up 4 runs in 7 innings, followed by Ryan Perry getting blasted for 3 runs in his relief effort. All of Perry's 3 earned runs came on a home run by .206 hitter Luis Rodriguez.

The Mariners just destroyed Tiger pitching all week. In fact, 41% of the Mariners entire offensive output this season occurred solely against Detroit.

The Tigers do not have much margin for error. With a lineup of middling bats like Austin Jackson, Will Rhymes, Ramon Santiago, Brandon Inge, and Ryan Raburn, the Tiger pitchers must keep the team in shouting distance. That didn't happen this week. Seattle outscored them 24-6. It was the exact opposite of the White Sox series. For the foreseeable future, I don't see much changing with regard to the offense. Yesterday, five of the Tigers starting nine were hitting .200 or lower. How can a major league team be so inept? This isn't just a team slump... this is Panic Time!

One of those slumping players is Magglio Ordonez. He's in a funk, batting .172. I'm not worried about him. As a career .300 hitter, Magglio will fight his way out of it. It's the rest of the offense that's troubling. Yesterday, Will Rhymes had the look of a player who knows his days in the Majors are numbered:

Unfortunately, the slump runs so deep with this offense that a few personnel moves is not going to resolve it. The 2011 Tigers will be Miguel Cabrera and 8 fill-ins. It's possible the Tigers may get lucky and have a dude like Brennan Boesch break out. Or perhaps Magglio and Victor Martinez may pick up some slack. I certainly hope they do. But the fact of the matter is that the team simply can't pin their hopes on offense. They desperately need the pitching to carry them.

All five starters have shown moments of doing just that. And they've also shown moments of extreme vulnerability. My guess is that Phil Coke and Brad Penny will continue to follow the good with the bad. The real pressure is on the other three. Porcello, Verlander, and Scherzer need to pitch each game like they've got just a one run cushion -- because that might often be all they get from the offense.

Tonight, Scherzer faces off against first place Cleveland. Let's see how the Tigers rebound after a sweep.

Super Bowl Friday
Yesterday was the Super Bowl for Detroiters - NFL Draft Day! Whoo-hoo! The day that Lion fans can feel like winners without having to play an opponent.

If the Lions had a strength on their team last year, it was defensive tackle. With so many glaring holes in their lineup, common logic dictated the Lions would draft a cornerback, defensive end, or offensive lineman with their 13th pick. Instead, they picked a defensive tackle. Some fans are perplexed. Others are thrilled. I, for one, understand the pick. Yes, they have decent depth already, but these are the Lions. A good player on the Lions may be another team's castoff. Other than Ndamokung Suh's spot, every other position on defense should be up for grabs. The Lions took a potential premiere player in DT Nick Fairley. The team needs talent, and I think they got it. Next, I'm guessing the Lions draft a LB. Only one LB went in the first round.

For the record, NFL commish Roger Goodell was greeted with a chorus of boos last night. Perhaps now he understands the anger fans have toward him and ownership. Thanks to Roger Goodell, the NFL draft is now spread out over three days too. Last night, they wrapped up the first round in a robust 3 hours 30 minutes. Nothing like milking a barren cow, eh?

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Rod Allen Knows Baseball


Seriously.

It's too bad Phil Coke doesn't have an earpiece on the mound, with a direct line to Rod's color commentary. If Coke had listened to Rod, Coke may have avoided some major mistakes last night.

For those unfamiliar with Rod Allen, he was a fringe MLBer with just 31 career games. After a handful of appearances with the '84 Tigers, Rod spent the next few years back in the minors. In the late 80s, Rod signed with a Japanese team. Thankfully for us, Rod introduced the Japanese to the wonderful art of charging the mound:


What I like about Rod is that he has no delusions of grandeur about his playing career (unlike, ahem, this guy). An All-star career is no prerequisite for success in the booth. Rod's 30 years experience in the game and calm delivery make him a top-notch color analyst. Last night, he showed he might have a future in coaching as well.

Phil Coke was facing off against Felix Hernandez - perhaps the best pitcher in the American League. So he had his work cut out for him. The last thing he needed was this gaffe by Ryan Raburn:



By the way, Raburn is quickly becoming the absolute star of this blog. Perhaps I should rename it RyRa.com? RaburnRugburn.com? Ryanshope.com? I'll think about it.

Strangely, that fly ball was ruled a home run for Miguel Olivo. Not an error. Raburn's agent loves that. In Raburn's defense, the ball flew right into the sun. Despite his poor fielding history, I have no doubt Raburn makes that catch under normal circumstances. It was just Raburn's bad luck that Olivo hit the ball right into the one patch of sunlight on the field. That "home run" tied the game at 1.

In the 4th, with Coke seemingly in control, Olivo notched a legitimate double with two outs. Rod Allen commented that Coke may want to walk the right-handed Justin Smoak (.288 BA), since 1st base was open and the next batter was left-handed Jack Cust (.176 BA). As Rod spoke his wisdom, Coke threw a fastball right down the middle which Smoak blistered down the left field line. The ball fell inches foul. Apparently, that blistered shot was not enough to convince Coke to pitch around this guy. Now, Coke didn't need to intentionally walk Smoak. But there was no reason Coke needed to give him anything good to hit. Coke threw two balls to Smoak, but Coke apparently didn't want to concede anything. Coke challenged Smoak with his next pitch, and apparently Smoak accepted the challenge. He sent the ball deep into the seats for a 2-run home run.

Coke got the next batter out with a weak grounder to first.

Now, there's no way to know if Rod Allen's suggestion of walking Smoak would've prevented the runs. It's possible the next batter would've hit differently with runners on base. Regardless, Coke gambled and lost. It was a key point in the game too. The Tigers did tie the game, but the Mariners scored 4 for a commanding 7-3 lead. If Coke had avoided those 2 runs by walking Smoak, perhaps the Tigers have a bit more confidence down 5-3 instead of 7-3. Who knows. The bottom line is that Coke must be smarter. He's new as a starting pitcher in the majors. He needs to play to his strength. He's not Felix Hernandez or Tim Lincecum, who can trust their stuff against any player in the league. He's got to, as Rod Allen said, "choose his outs."

Lefties are hitting .182 against Coke. He should know that, and use it to his - and the Tigers - advantage. And if Coke is too keyed-up to understand the situation, Jim Leyland or Alex Avila should help him out. Jim Leyland gets paid big bucks to manage this team, and he should not be upstaged by Rod Allen in the booth. Last night, he was.

The good news is that the Tigers get Felix Hernandez out of the way. If the team was to lose a game in this series, last night would be it. Tonight, the Tigers bring back Verlander.

For the record, the Tigers' #1 and #2 batters - Jackson and Will Rhymes - combined for zero hits (one walk). With Scott Sizemore hitting .411 (!!!) in Toledo, it's time for a change. I'm no expert, but .411 tells me the kid is hungry for another chance. I backed Rhymes up at the beginning of the season, but, if the dude ain't hitting (.185 BA), he ain't helping the team.

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

12-10 Never Felt So Good


For one glorious weekend, everything went right for the Tigers.

On Friday night - the first night game of the year at Comerica - 23,000 fans braved the 35 degree drizzle. Verlander, in his usual style, dominated the White Sox but still fell prey to the long ball. His 3 earned runs easily held as Ryan Raburn alone had 4 RBIs. The Tigers' offense pummeled White Sox ace Mark Buehrle and the White Sox for 12 hits and 9 runs. Even Austin Jackson joined the fun, raising his average to .162. Benoit pitched a scoreless 8th, followed by Valverde's scoreless 9th.

Just like Dombrowski drew it up.

Saturday was even more interesting. Brad Penny faced off against former Tiger Edwin Jackson. Jackson was a very good pitcher for the Tigers during his one season. He even made the All-star team that year. Yet, his numbers dropped significantly in the later months, with the Tigers in the thick of a pennant race. In August, he posted a fair 4.45 ERA. It grew to 5.08 in September. And then in a crucial game against the White Sox in October, Edwin got shelled for 8 runs in 5 innings. It's likely that crunch time failure rubbed Dombrowski the wrong way. Despite solid end-of-year numbers (13-9, 3.62 ERA), Dombrowski sent Edwin packing in the massive Curtis Granderson trade.

Edwin fared well against the Tigers prior to Saturday's start, but this weekend was all Tigers. The Tiger batters put pressure on Jackson all day. Six Tigers had multi-hit games. SIX. Edwin left in the 6th, surrendering 12 hits and 8 runs. One run would've been enough as the Sox didn't score at all. Massive damage again inflicted by (White Sox killer?) Ryan Raburn with 3 RBIs. As a team, the Tigers hit a very un-Tiger like 6-15 (.400) with RISP. Meanwhile, Brad friggin' Penny took a no-hitter into the 7th. Nothing against Brad Penny, but there's no way this White Sox lineup should be no-hit. I've watched Penny multiple times this season, and the dude does not have no-hit stuff. Okay, maybe this IS a knock on Brad Penny. I suppose he is a 2-time All-star in '06 and '07. Regardless of Penny's heroics, the White Sox hitters just looked bad. They normally drag out these games with eight pitch at-bats. Yet, they were flailing at pitches outside the strikezone.

Their dreadful at-bats continued Sunday against Max Scherzer. While the Sox did manage a few hits (4), they rarely reached 2nd base. Nothing was hit hard, and Scherzer looked like Roy Halladay. It's days like Sunday that Tiger fans dream of a Verlander/Scherzer 1-2 punch like Maddux/Glavine or Randy Johnson/Curt Schilling.

The Tiger bats cooled off somewhat from Saturday, but they still put up 3 runs, thanks to clutch doubles by Brandon Inge and Austin Jackson (who raised his average to .193).

When the dust settled, the Tigers finished the weekend outscoring the White Sox 21-3. Going forward, it's difficult to know what to make of these Tigers. Alex Avila is hitting well, as is Boesch. Those two guys were big question marks entering the season. But the top of the lineup still has difficulty getting on base. Austin Jackson's few hits aside, I'm not sure he's turned the corner. The pitching has carried the team for the past few weeks, and that's the most positive sign. With Ryan Perry back, the 7th inning dead zone is less deadly. Benoit and Valverde continue to pitch well. So if the starters continue to pile up quality starts (11 in the last 13 games), the Tigers should compete well into September.

If I were Dombrowski, I would re-evaluate this teams' identity. Dombrowski built this team to be a slugging outfit in the mold of the White Sox, Red Sox, and Yankees. It's clear that, outside of Miguel Cabrera, the hitting is too inconsistent. While I would be hesitant to call the pitching consistent, it's at least shown more potential than the bats. With that in mind, Dombrowski may want to bring up defensive specialist Danny Worth. The Tigers miraculously surrendered just one error against the White Sox. With Raburn anywhere but DH, the Tigers are playing with fire defensively. Peralta has shown decent skill at SS, but he doesn't have Worth's range. Worth may be good insurance should the Tigers have a slight lead late in games. Leyland already subs Maggs in favor of defensive replacement Casper Wells. Why not Peralta too? (Oddly, Raburn usually finishes the game, despite his team-leading 3 errors.)

Up next, the Tigers welcome the Mariners, then head off to Cleveland. If the Tigers win both series, they enter a tough stretch against the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Twins with a decent cushion.

Thursday, April 21, 2011

Defense or Goalie?

Mr. Popular in Phoenix

Popular opinion is that a hot goalie will carry a team throughout the playoffs. In recent years I've wondered if a dominant defenseman is actually more important. Prime example: Chris Pronger. It doesn't matter where this jackass plays, he simply wills his team to playoff success. He lifted the Cup with the Ducks, and made it to the Finals with Philly and Edmonton. Edmonton crashed down to Earth after they traded Pronger. And St. Louis? They made the playoffs nine straight seasons with Pronger, often with long playoff runs. In the six seasons since the Pronger trade? One playoff appearance. Obviously, the guy is a key to playoff success. And yet I doubt there's a GM (or fan) in the league who would take Chris Pronger over Buffalo goalie Ryan Miller. For some reason, the goalie gets the spotlight.

For better or worse.

Today, the Phoenix Coyotes clean out their lockers. Their season is over. The Red Wings, who ousted them last season in 7 games, did so again this year in a clean sweep. The Phoenix goalie - Ilya Brzgalov - took a ton of heat in the first three games. The Wings had little difficulty scoring - and scoring early. They did so again last night. Datsyuk carried the puck across the goal, fending off two defenders. He sent a blind pass to an onrushing (and falling) Holmstrom who flicked the puck into the top corner. It was an incredible bit of skill by Datsyuk and Holmstrom. I honestly don't know what Brzgalov could do to stop it.

That's true for most of the goals in the series. The Wings were beneficiaries of some favorable deflections in Game 3, and then the Game 3 clincher was a breakaway by Franzen. Can you really fault a goalie when the opposing player is allowed to skate in untouched?

My main point here is that there's more to hockey success and failure than just the goalie. For one thing, the Wings finished pretty darn well. I didn't see too many shots off the post. I recall in those epic series with the Avs, the Wings would usually hit the pipes about three times per game. Yet, to even hit the pipe, you've got to have a decent scoring opportunity. Against the Coyotes, the Wings had no difficulty gaining the zone and creating a quality shot. Phoenix's defensive strength was actually at the other end of the ice. They built their reputation as a strong fore-checking team. They constantly pressured the Wings in front of Howard, hoping for a turnover. Last season, the Wings struggled against the fore-check, but it was less of a hassle this time around. When the Wings could break out of their zone, the hard work was done. Without a dominant defense (or defenseman), the Coyotes had no answer.

So the Wings move on, in impressive fashion. They were the only team to sweep their opponent. Yet, honestly, we all know they got lucky with the draw. Phoenix is a quality team, but are they as dangerous as the Blackhawks? The Preds? The Ducks? The Blackhawks and Preds possess the dominant defenseman that fit nicely into "Pronger Theory". While he's not a Pronger-like a-hole, the Blackhawks' Duncan Keith is the reigning Norris Trophy winner. They've also got solid support with Brent Seabrook and Brian Campbell. The Blackhawks' coach just happens to be Joel Quinneville - the same guy who coached Pronger during his St. Louis Blues' heyday. As for the Preds, they boast Red Wing killer Shea Weber. This young kid is indeed the next generation Pronger, minus the "I'm a jerkoff" face. He's got a killer shot and a mean streak. He's truly the type of player to build a team around. In the playoffs, the Wings are best to avoid him.

The rest of the field in the West is not quite as strong with regard to elite defensemen. The Canucks boast some decent defensemen like Dan Hamhuis and Christian Ehrhoff, but they're not in Shea Weber's class. The Canucks rely on the elite goaltender theory - Roberto Luongo. The Ducks, meanwhile, are more an offensive powerhouse compared to the Pronger/Neidermeyer Cup-winning days. They still have Ryan Getzlaf and a solid goalie in Jonas Hiller, but their team is now more reliant on the scoring of Getzlaf, Bobby Ryan, the incredible Corey Perry, and the ageless Teamu Selanne. The Kings have young up-and-comer Drew Doughty and a decent goalie in Jonathan Quick, while the San Jose Sharks top blue-liner is All-star Dan Boyle.

So who's the best matchup for the Wings? Obviously, I'd like to avoid the Preds and Shea Weber. Right now, they're tied 2 games apiece with the Ducks. So thankfully one of those teams will soon be history. Same with the Canucks and Blackhawks. The Blackhawks staved off elimination Tuesday, but they're still down 3-1. Vancouver should advance without too much trouble. My guess is that the Wings will meet the Sharks, which would be another rematch from last season. The Sharks, frustrated from another disappointing playoff exit, jettisoned Evgeni Nabokov last summer. They still boast a potent offensive attack with Patrick Marleau, Heatley, and rising star Logan Couture. No doubt they can skate with the Wings, and they'll have confidence after last season's 4-1 series win. But the Wings won't be intimidated. They've got the confidence and swagger of a 4-time Cup winning side (though most of the team was only present for the '08 Cup). And more importantly, the Sharks aren't that physical, dominant defensive side.

Should my "Pronger Theory" hold true, the Preds will advance and face off with the Canucks. That grind-it-out series could take its toll on both teams.

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

No longer In Praise of RyRa

A familiar sight

Time to bench him.

Okay, I'm kidding. Sort of. But the dude has fallen off the map since I praised him last Thursday. Raburn's stats during that span:

BA: .111
HR: 0
RBI: 0
BB: 1
K: 11

Yes, folks, that's a shocking 11 strikeouts in just four games. He now leads the majors (passing fellow Tiger Austin Jackson). And to think... we thought Brandon Inge was the strikeout king. Raburn also added an error to stay atop the MLB leaderboard for left-fielders.

The truth is that every player goes through a slump. Raburn, after a fine first few weeks at the plate, earned the right to slump a bit. Yet, these recent at-bats are alarming. He's swinging at pitches way out of the strike-zone. Everything changed for him when the team flew out West. It's like he shattered his Wonderboy bat and can't find the Savoy Special.

Raburn's not alone. The Tigers can't find a fix at the top of the lineup. Austin Jackson's average continues to plummet. He's now hitting .164 with a ghastly .239 on-base percentage. Will Rhymes is only slightly better. He's hitting .226. Inge is now at .208, and Santiago's at .200. The truth is that Miguel Cabrera and, to a lesser extent, Brennan Boesch and Victor Martinez are carrying this team.

Last night, Cabrera and Boesch kept the Tigers in contention until Jhonny Peralta opened the game wide open with a bases-clearing triple. Peralta definitely came through in a clutch situation, and the Tigers desperately need more of that. The team won the game, but the lack of balanced hitting is troubling, especially now that Martinez needs a few games off. No Guillen, no Maggs, no VMart? Yuck. Lord knows what would happen to this team if Cabrera needed a day off... or, gasp, more than one. Leyland might have to pick up a bat.

This may be a downer of a post after a solid 8-3 victory, but I can't see this team moving forward without more production from the top and bottom of the batting order. The successful Tiger teams had a balanced attack. Yes, they can rely on Cabrera to a certain degree. Like, for instance, when facing a pitcher like Cliff Lee. Cabrera can hit everybody. Brandon Inge cannot. But, man, when they're up against a Bruce Chen or Jason Vargas, they gotta make them pay.

Red Wings
In less-worrisome news, the Red Wings won last night. I must admit, I did not think the Wings would be up 3-0. Phoenix is a fine team. To make the playoffs in the West is a massive accomplishment, and it proves Phoenix's quality. Yet, they've been derailed by bad bounces and shoddy goalkeeping. In Detroit, they were even beneficiaries from a handful of questionable calls, resulting in lengthy 5-on-3s. It wasn't enough.

Last night, when Ruslan Salei scored from the point, followed by a Drew Miller deflection, I figured the Wings were living under a lucky star. Those goals from unheralded role-players are back-breakers, and they happened so early in the game. It killed all the Coyotes home-ice mojo. Then, when Franzen scored so effortlessly early in the 3rd, the Wings cemented their status as big brother.

I'm not quite sure what to expect from Phoenix in Game 4, but most teams lay it all on the line. The players always say the close-out game is the toughest. Considering Phoenix's overly physical play backfired in Game 3, my guess is they'll focus on scoring first. Then, if they get that early lead, they'll revert to the massive checking, fighting, and face-washing. It could be ugly.

Props to the Wings for staying out of the box last night. Only 3 penalty-kills, after 7 the prior game. Phoenix did score on 2 of the 3, but it was too little too late.

Thursday, April 14, 2011

In praise of RyRa

Since Monday when I claimed he was "eating up ABs that should go to superior players like Boesch or Casper Wells," Ryan Raburn has gone 4-8 with 2 walks. In general, he was the best Tiger hitter against the strong pitching staff of the Rangers. And to further shove the crow down my mouth, Raburn made a Chet Lemon-esque catch Tuesday, leaping over the wall to thwart a home run by Michael Young:

Raburn's the anti-nofrown curse. And I couldn't be happier for him. My over-the-top frustration with this guy stemmed from the fact that I fell prey to his teasing bat once before. When he first came up to the majors in 2007, Raburn made the most of his 147 at-bats, hitting .307 with 27 RBIs and decent pop (.507 SLG). I was hoping he'd get an opportunity the next season. He responded a .236 average. Yet, it wasn't just his lack of timely hitting. He couldn't do the little things. When the team needed a bunt, Raburn would swing away. When the needed a sacrifice fly, Raburn would strike out. And then his fielding... he never had a distinct position. As a minor leaguer, he shuffled around from 2nd base to 3rd and then to the outfield. With the Tigers, he's also moved around, but for the past two seasons Leyland stuck him exclusively in left field. And the dude still leads his position in errors. I could live with his poor batting average if the dude could reliably lay down a bunt and field his position. But he was maddeningly inconsistent.

Last season, as Tiger fanatics know, Raburn turned up the heat in the 2nd half of the season. When it was clear the Tigers were out of contention, Raburn's bat finally came to life. He finished the season with 15 HRs, 62 RBIs and a respectable .280 BA. As a reward, Leyland named him the full-time starter in LF, entering this season. The dude still can't bunt... but he has hit a sacrifice fly this season. So I guess there's hope. At this point, I'd still rather see Boesch and Wells, but I won't throw the remote at the TV with RyRa in the lineup. He's done quite well subbing for Magglio in the 3-spot.

Red Wings
Must give quick kudos to the Red Wings. Despite a horrible start (8 min of penalties in the 1st period), the Wings rebounded like savvy veterans in the 2nd and blistered the Preds for 3 goals. When Pavel opened the scoring with a beautiful wrap-around, it was like the skies parted. The players and fans relaxed. Minutes later, Franzen unleashed one of his patented wristers that caught Bryzgalov off-guard and found the upper 90. Then Rafalski scored. Then Hudler in the 3rd. And the defense held.

There were a handful of untimely turnovers by the defense, but Phoenix failed to capitalize. The turnovers continue to pose problems for the Wings, and I'm not sure it will ever be fixed. It may just be a part of who they are. As fans, I guess we just have to hope the Wings are more opportunistic than the opposition.

Pistons
As Pistonpowered.com said, "We made it." The season is over.

They actually pulled out a win against a disinterested 76er team. I had the chance to watch Hamilton and Prince perform quite well in what had to be their final game in a Piston uniform. As Joko texted last night, it's just a sad, sad end to the "Goin' to Work" gang.

The dude leading the charge at the end wasn't the old guard, though. It was Rodney Stuckey. He continued to pad his stats in meaningless games, as he enters (restricted) free agency. For the final five games, Stuckey averaged a staggering 25 ppg, 9.4 apg, and a .520 FG%. Dumars will likely bring this kid back, but he's got a lot of work to do to repair his crybaby image in this town. The stats are impressive, but the dude doesn't bring wins... and that's all that matters.

In Rick Carlisle's first season, the starting five in his first game was Dana Barros, Stackhouse, Michael Curry, Uncle Cliffy, and Big Ben. There's not a ton of talent in that group. Yet, they won 50 games. It's about chemistry, and which current Pistons will contribute to positive chemistry?

In a telling sign of the times, I'm currently listening to WDFN and the subject is: "Which Piston do you most want to see leave the team?"

*Sigh*

At least the season is over.

Monday, April 11, 2011

Slow Start Signals Sleepy Season

I was more bummed out than usual after the Tigers' ugly weekend losses. I predicted they'd take 2 of 3 against the Royals. I suppose I should be content the Tigers at least won the opener. On Saturday, the Tigers squandered a solid start by Phil Coke, as the bats couldn't do anything against journeyman Bruce Chen (lifetime stats: 49-50, 4.63 ERA). Yesterday, the Royals pummeled Rick Porcello and the rest of the Tigers' bullpen for 9 runs and 15 hits.

Why were these losses so disturbing? They drop the Tigers to last place in the Central, with a 3-6 record. In recent history, the Tigers do not fare well when they start slow:


Other than the strange '04 season, the Tigers' first nine games signal whether the team will finish with a losing record or at least a .500 record.

There were plenty of angry comments on mLive yesterday. This is not a strange event, especially after a loss, but the vitriol was at August levels, not April. Fans have abandoned this team. Sure there will still be people attending the games - the allure of a day off in the hot sun, downing tasty beverages is too much to resist - but there's not fan fervor, no belief this team will accomplish anything. The word "uninspired" was tossed around. I have to agree. Based on the player's body language, it seemed the Royals wanted it more.

Coming into the season, it was easy to pinpoint the Tigers' weaknesses. Through 9 games, they were all exposed:
  • Terrible pitching (6.19 team ERA - 2nd to last in AL)
  • No clutch hits (Team batting .194 with RISP and 2 outs - only 2 teams worse in AL)
  • Too many strikeouts at the top of the lineup (A.Jackson leads the AL with 14)
  • Dreadful fielding (13 errors - dead last in all of MLB)
Is Leyland to blame? Dombrowski? The players? Me?

There's plenty of blame for all. Leyland no longer inspires this team. They look like they're going through the motions. Leyland is committed to playing his entire bench, which forces quality bats (Maggs, Peralta) to the bench. He's also committed to Ryan Raburn. Raburn is one of two left-fielders in the entire major leagues with 2 errors. This is not an error-prone position, folks. 20 of the 30 left-fielders have ZERO errors. Yet, Raburn has 2, despite playing in the fewest games of the bunch (6). Clearly he's in the lineup due to his bat. Yet, his .227 BA with 3 RBI would not back that up.

Raburn is eating up ABs that should go to superior players like Boesch or Casper Wells. Both are 26 years old, and the team needs to find out what they can offer.

There's also a massive problem at the top of the order. Austin Jackson ranks 46th among leadoff men in the Major Leagues. There aren't 46 teams. So some teams have multiple leadoff men that are hitting better. Coincidentally, Will Rhymes also ranks 46th among #2 hitters. That's an eye-popping stat. For a team built on offense, the top of the order is dreadful.

In Jackson's defense, he provides a stabilizing force in the field. He also offers speed on the basepath, should he ever get to first. The solution to this problem is to move Jackson down in the lineup. Let somebody else leadoff. Jackson has the lowest on-base percentage on the team - the opposite of what a coach wants. Let Casper Wells lead-off. Hit Boesch in 2nd. Can't be any worse.

And as for the pitching, I honestly don't see any tangible solutions. Porcello worries me. His pitches aren't fooling anyone. If it were up to me, I'd send him down to Toledo and keep him there for a few months. Let him work out his problems under a smaller spotlight. He's nowhere close to the pitcher he was in 2009. I simply don't see him lasting more than 5 more starts. Coke, though, showed he might pan out as a starter. Of course, that opens up a gaping hole in the set-up role. The Tigers still have no credible pitcher to handle the 7th inning. For a win, the Tigers' starter must pitch through the 7th inning.

Leyland needs to shake things up. Unfortunately, that's not his strong suit. He's a let-it-ride-type manager. For a 3-6 team, that's not good.

Dave Dombrowski and Mike Ilitch, however, are not let-it-ride-type guys. I expect one of them to push for a change.

Friday, April 8, 2011

On Pace

Just get me to Benoit

I mentioned a few days ago that the 2011 Tigers picked up right where the 2010 team left off. That continues to be true.

Last season, the Tigers lost roughly 2 out of every 3 games on the road. After six road games, this team is 2-4, though last night's loss was an especially bitter pill.

Even with a makeshift lineup with Don Kelly, Santiago, and RyRay (Maggs, Peralta, and Inge got the day off), the bats provided an early lead. First it was 2-0. Then the Orioles tied it. The Tigers retook the lead at 4-2 thanks to an Avila homer and Boesch double. The Orioles again responded courtesy of a 2-run homer. But the Tigers continued their assault, securing a 5-4 lead in the top of the 7th.

That's when the trouble started.

Brad Penny started this game. He pitched about as well as you could expect - 5.1 IP, 4 ER. He put a few runners on base in the 6th inning, but Brayan Villareal relieved him and pitched out of the jam. It was a huge moment in the game. Little did we know that the rest of the Tigers' staff would blow the game open.

Heading into the bottom of the 7th, with a narrow 5-4 lead, Leyland was praying his bullpen could somehow just get three more outs. Then he could pitch Benoit in the 8th and Valverde in the 9th. Earlier in the day, the Tigers reported that Ryan Perry would not be available with a minor injury. With Zumaya already on the DL and Phil Coke now slated for starting duties, the Tigers had no regular pitcher with experience in the 7th inning set-up role. Would Leyland trot out Benoit for a 2-inning hold? Not this time. But after seeing his bullpen implode, he may reconsider.

Brad Thomas was the first lamb to the slaughter. He faced two batters. The first singled, and then Thomas walked the next. Leyland had seen enough. Thomas hit the showers and in came Enrique Gonzalez, a career minor leaguer who's averaged just 8 innings of work over the past four seasons. Gonzalez did get one out - a strikeout - but the next batter, Vlad Guerrero singled, scoring a run. Don Kelly compounded the damage by trying to catch the runner at home. To call Kelly's throw a bit off-target would be like saying Carl Lewis was a bit off-key. Kelly's error allowed the runners to advance to 2nd and 3rd. After an intentional walk, a sac-fly, and a double, the game was over.

The Tigers one-run lead turned into a 9-5 deficit. No Benoit. No Valverde. Just another ugly loss. And it revealed a massive weakness in the Tigers' roster. They've got no middle relief. For a team with such inconsistent starting pitching, that's a massive problem. The recipe against the Tigers will be pretty simple - drive up the pitch count of the starter. Foul off as many pitches as possible and get to that middle relief.

The problem with the middle relief stems back to the farm system. While Dombrowski has done a fine job of drafting quality arms in the early rounds, he hasn't had the success in the later rounds. As a result, the Tigers' pitching staff has no balance. It's composed of a handful of high-priced free agents (Valverde, Benoit), talented early picks (Verlander, Porcello, Perry) and castoffs. When Leyland's forced to rely on the castoffs, the team is in trouble. Guys like Brad Thomas and Gonzalez would have trouble making any major league roster, let alone a team that actually thinks it can compete. When guys like Perry and Zumaya go down, the Tigers expose their lack of depth.

For this season, there's really no solution to this problem. We can't expect Brad Thomas to suddenly become competent. He is what he is... and that's the guy you bring in to eat up the middle innings when the team is already down 6 runs. The only chance the team has to remedy this situation is to hope Perry and Zumaya stay healthy. Or perhaps they can land some trade that moves Coke back to the set-up role. I was surprised Coke was moved out of it in the first place. Leyland was just desperate for a lefty starter.

(Quick aside about Leyland... what manager rests his players after one week? His decision to rest Maggs, Inge, and Peralta didn't cost them the game -- that's squarely on the shoulders of the bullpen -- but it's just an odd decision. The season was five games old, and he's already resting his players? Just odd.)

So now the Tigers return home. If they keep on pace with the 2010 team, they'll win 2 out of 3. The forecast today calls for rain in the morning, but it's supposed to clear up by game time. Rain wouldn't dare spoil Opening Day - Motown's 2nd biggest holiday (after the NFL Draft) - would it?

Tuesday, April 5, 2011

Why We Hate the Tigers


The season is four games old. In baseball, that's an infancy. Yet, fans in Detroit are ready to blow this roster wide open. Why?

Sure, sports fans tend to overreact. But there's something more with this team. In most seasons, I'd look at the situation objectively. I'd recommend waiting until the team played 30 games before making any prediction. Besides, opening up with two road series was a tall order for a team with a 29-52 road record last year. So why are Tiger fans so confident that this team is going nowhere?

The simple fact is that the 2011 Tigers picked up right where the 2010 left off. And that team wasn't terribly different from the 2009 Tigers. There's not a ton of turnover. Those teams flirted with success only to disappoint in crunch time. The 2009 incarnation took that disappointment to an extreme. Look at the opening day lineups:


This team has some clear troublespots. Their leadoff hitter strikes out way too much. Granderson was 9th in the league in total strikeouts in 2009. Austin Jackson led the league last year, and, sad to say, he's already tops in the league for 2011 with 8.

In that second spot, they've clearly downgraded. Sizemore and Rhymes are a poor substitute for Placido Polanco (who, by the way, hit .298 for the Phillies last year). Why was he not offered a contract?

The 3, 4, 5 spots are solid, if not strong. No complaints there. Victor Martinez, despite a poor start, is still an excellent hitter, and he provides the left-handed bat that's eluded this team for years.

The trouble begins in the 6th spot. In the offseason, I was desperately hoping the Tigers would add a solid bat. They did bring back Maggs, which is nice, but they needed more power. I'm sure he's a nice dude, but Raburn ain't the answer. In left field, they've trotted out Josh Anderson (who?), Damon, and now Raburn. In the 7th spot, Peralta is at least a decent upgrade over Adam Everett. But the jury is out on Peralta's defense. He's already botched a grounder that was graciously not deemed an error by the Yankee scorekeeper. The Yankees went on to score 3 that inning. Inge remains in the 8th spot. Yawn. And of course there's Avila instead of Laird bringing up the rear (literally).

Other than the 3-4-5 spots, this team is pedestrian at the plate. That's especially sad because this team was built for offense, not defense. When the heart of the order goes 1-12 like yesterday, it's no surprise that they manage just 1 run. And this team does not have the pitching to win a 1-0 game. Just ain't gonna happen.

While I've been harping about the offense, I should note that I don't blame them for this year's poor start. They're just the reason for fan frustration. The batters are doing what they always do, which is get a handful of hits but ultimately come up short.

The real culprit for the disappointing start this season is the starting pitching. Verlander leads the starting staff with a 4.50 ERA. Next in line is Porcello, sporting a solid 9.00 ERA. Scherzer's at 10.80. And then we've got Brad Penny at a healthy 16.62. That's ugly, even for this team. The only positive thing about this staff is that Benoit, Schlereth, and Valverde have yet to concede a run. Otherwise, this staff is a disaster. Unless the starters right the ship, this team is headed for last place.

Of course, that's part of the problem. I have no doubt the starters will right the ship to some degree. They'll find a way to eke out a few wins. But best case scenario is that this team finishes somewhere in 3rd or 2nd place in the Central. Not even the greatest optimist could expect anything more. With a pretty dreadful farm system, I suppose I should be pleased the Tigers are competitive. That's a credit to Dombrowski for keeping the team afloat. He's drafted pretty well and made a handful of good trades. Yet, his manager does little to inspire confidence. He's so damn ornery. His act was welcome at first, but it's played out. He turns off the media and now the fans too. The fans want somebody who's going to rally this team. I just can't see Leyland as that guy.