Monday, December 20, 2010

Huh-wha?!

One game after I so vociferously state "Monroe stakes a claim" on the starting spot, Coach Q benches him, and the Pistons play one of their best games of the year.

During this four game home stand, the Pistons:
  • Blew a 25 point 3rd quarter lead to the lowly Raptors (10-18)
  • Destroyed the playoff-bound Hawks (17-12)
  • Laid an egg in a blowout loss to the historically pathetic Clippers (7-21)
  • Won in overtime against the Hornets (16-11), despite missing two starters
They are a strange team and difficult to gauge. The previous four games prove - at least to me - that they do possess some talent. Unlike the Marinelli Lions, I'll never say the cupboard is bare. Ben Gordon, Charlie V, Prince, and McGrady are capable of exhilarating offensive displays. They've got skills. So, why oh why can this team not bring it every night?

We've dissected this issue ad nauseum over the past two years. The problem at the very least starts with Joe D. He compiled this team with too many guards. Then he chose a rudderless leader in John Kuester. There's zero consistency with minutes, which leads to zero consistency in performance.

Last night, Kuester announced yet another overhaul of the starting lineup. Out were Hamilton, Stuckey, and Monroe. Stuckey has a legit foot injury, but Hamilton's demotion was more nebulous. Was his "stomach illness" a result of questionable salmon or questionable jump shots? The old guard of Hamilton, Stuckey, Wallace, and Prince seemed entrenched as starters. Perhaps Kuester decided that the blowout loss to the Clippers was the last straw. Their clear lack of energy in both the 1st and 3rd quarters (after the Piston subs fought back in the 2nd) may have forced his hand. Who could blame Kuester if he did bench Rip? The dude's playing the worst ball of his career, his body language shows his disinterest, and he's found a way to get himself ejected on three separate occasions. Kuester showed some backbone by benching Stuckey earlier in the year. Did he actually have the cojones to bench three-time All star Rip? As for Monroe, my guess is that it's more a case of rewarding his replacement. Monroe's played well, but Charlie V is having the best season of his career.

In place of Stuckey and Hamilton, Kuester opted for Tracy McGrady and Ben Gordon. McGrady responded by tweeking his hamstring and missing the entire second half. Gordon responded by missing his first seven shots. Go Pistons!

To their credit, they did not quit. With Tayshaun Prince playing perhaps the best ball of his career, the Pistons stayed within shouting distance of the Hornets. Gordon found his shooting stroke in the 2nd half, and, with the team down 3 with 21 seconds remaining, Gordon didn't hesitate. He took the inbounds pass and calmly drained the long ball to tie the game. On the ensuing possession, Chris Paul ran down the clock and drove to the hoop for the potential game winner. Paul swerved by Will Bynum but found Tayshaun Prince waiting. Prince sent Paul's shot into the 3rd row with his most timely swat since... well... this one:


During overtime, the Pistons jumped out of a five point lead, but the Hornets clawed back. They continued to push the ball to David West, who, just a few games ago, punished the Pistons with 25 points on 10-14 shooting. Tonight was different. Jason Maxiell, who was benched due to that poor defensive performance on West, was given a shot at redemption. Maxiell didn't enter the game until late in the 3rd quarter, but he made his mark. He harassed David West, and, especially in overtime, forced him into difficult shots. After Bynumite put the Pistons ahead by a point with 7 seconds remaining, Maxiell made the play of the game:


This is the same guy who was averaging a measly 4 points and 2 boards for the month of December?

It is.

I said last week that Maxiell is good in spurts. Last night was the perfect example of a Maxiell spurt. You just can't rely on him to deliver that consistently.Ben Gordon, though, is a different story. For the sake of the team, the fans, and BG, the dude needs to start. Give the guy a defined role. Last night, he knew his role - score - and he delivered. Will Bynum knew his role - find the hot hand - and, despite massive rust, eventually showed solid playmaking abilities. Tayshaun Prince knew his role - lead - and he finished with an astonishing 28 points, 12 boards, 8 assists, and 3 blocks.

As a fan, it's difficult to know what to make of Prince. He's playing so well, but he's also the only player who'd likely command something of value in return. Besides an expiring contract, he's still relatively young and has massive respect around the league. My guess is that the Pistons would likely still not get equal value, but they may have no other option since Prince will likely sign elsewhere this summer. Stuckey is in an equally tricky situation. He's developed into a NBA-caliber scorer. He's a capable defender, and, in general, a good dude. Yet, he's shown no tangible ability to make those around him better. His best role seems to be that of the 2-guard. If the Pistons deal him this season, I wouldn't be surprised to see him flourish. He's got talent. But he and Rip are clearly holding this team back. The Pistons simply play better with BG at the 2, and McGrady or Bynum at the 1.

The Pistons next three games are against Toronto, Chicago, and Charlotte. If they play like they did against New Orleans, they should win all three. Yet, we now know to expect the unexpected.

Thursday, December 16, 2010

Monroe stakes a claim

If the Toronto game was rock bottom, perhaps the one consolation is that it forced Kuester to make a change. After a few weeks of ineffectiveness, Kuester benched Jason Maxiell in favor of Greg Monroe. I didn't understand Kuester's decision to start Maxiell in the first place. We've had five years to see what Jason Maxiell can do. In effect, he's a serviceable bench player who can provide energy in short bursts. Over the long haul, though, he's exposed as an undersized front-court player.

Besides, Greg Monroe needs minutes. Moving him alongside Big Ben made sense. It's strange that it took so long for this change. This is not a ringing endorsement of perhaps the lamest of all lame duck coaches - Kuester.

Monroe's first start resulted in a win. It was, sad to say, their first win over a team with a winning record (Atlanta). Monroe limited opposing power forward (and future all-star) Josh Smith to just 4 boards. Smith did notch 26 points, but his point total was aided by some very strange foul calls on Monroe - the growing pains of a rookie in the League. Smith shot a respectable 8-17 (47%), but that's a good sign for the Pistons considering the previous four opposing power forwards shot a combined 39-57 (a staggering 68%). So it wasn't a star-making turn by Monroe, but it proved he's significantly more effective than Maxiell.

When the Pistons drafted Monroe, he was known to be a finesse big man with a high basketball IQ. What they've discovered is that he's significantly more physical than his days in college. He's grown quickly as a defender, and the dude can board. If other teams knew he'd develop into a top-tier rebounder, I doubt he would've lasted until the 7th pick in the draft.

The Pistons' record stands at 8-18. They've lost so many games in gut-wrenching fashion that it's easy to dismiss the season and team as a complete bust. Yet, players like Monroe give the fans at least one reason to watch. A developing young player gives the fan base hope. Like Monroe, Tracy McGrady had a coming out party against the Hawks. While he's the opposite of "developing young player," McGrady showed flashes of his old self in a 4th quarter where he nailed 4 straight 3-pointers. T-Mac, to some extent, is back. He's still yet to prove he can provide this offense every night, but I'm convinced that any good the Pistons do this season will somehow involve Tracy McGrady.

After the game, Dumars said he's working the phones daily trying to find suitors for a trade. While it's not shocking news, it's at least proof that Dumars realizes the team he put together sucks. He needs to thin out the 2 and 3 spots and find some front-court help. With the team's ownership in flux, my guess is that he's hesitant to take on payroll, but I'm sure he's empowered to match payroll. Another option would be to trade a player for picks. The problem with that scenario is that any team interested in either Prince, Hamilton, Gordon, or Stuckey would likely be a playoff team looking for veteran stability. The draft picks in return would be in the 20s.

That's not great value, but it's better than nothing.

Sunday, December 12, 2010

Rock Bottom?

You have to hope so.

The Pistons blew a 25 point 3rd quarter lead to the Raptors last night. It was a collapse of epic proportions. And, worst of all, I didn't even see it coming. Mrs. Nofrownmotown did. She said, as the Pistons led in the 3rd, "They're defense still sucks. When the Pistons 'shots stop falling, Toronto will catch up."

Ugh. So true. I figured they had this game in the bag as the Pistons piled up over 70 points in the first half. The team was actually having fun. But the Raptors refused to go away, helped out by a few fortuitous plays, most notably a half-court shot to end the half. The Raptors buried threes at a 64% clip and hit more free throws.

The Pistons, despite shooting over 50% for the game, stuttered down the stretch. The offense stalled, and the defense never clamped down the open Toronto jump-shooters.

This was a dreadful loss. It's perhaps the biggest gut-punch in a season of massive gut-punch losses. The lottery can't come soon enough.

Friday, December 10, 2010

The unbelievable rebirth of Jonathan Spector


I first saw Jon Spector during the halcyon days of Fox Sports World (now known as Fox Soccer Channel). I didn't actually have Fox Sports World, but my local Fox sports affiliate broadcast FSW games every Tuesday during lunch. It was always a Premiere League match. On this particular Tuesday in 2004, I was home sick and fortunate to see not one but two yanks in action.

At the time, I knew that Tim Howard was the regular starter for Manchester United. What I didn't know is that 18 year old American Jon Spector also would get the nod at left defense. Two American starters for the most decorated club in the world? It was impossible to fathom. I didn't know much about Spector at the time, other than he was either incredibly talented or incredibly lucky. The game itself was pretty exciting, with Howard in top form. Spector fared well too. He linked up confidently with old stalwarts Ryan Giggs and Paul Scholes. The young kid even had the audacity to make a few runs toward goal, with one shot narrowly curling over the crossbar. To see an 18 year old American shining for Manchester United was a rare, somewhat surreal, event... and it was short-lived.

Spector's time in the starting lineup was due to a rash of injuries. As the older players got healthy, Spector's minutes dropped. As an 18 year old, Man U manager Alex Ferguson rightfully thought he should be loaned to a lower-tier club. Spector found himself at Charlton Athletic. Surely, a kid who could man the pitch for Man U could crack the starting lineup at Charlton. It was not to be. Charlton didn't quite know what to make of Spector. He came through the youth ranks as a striker, but Man U used him exclusively as on defense. Charlton tried him in both spots, without much success.

It was during this time that Spector received his first call from the US national team in a friendly against Scotland. Based on his strong showing with Man U, I figured Spector would confidently take any position on defense he wanted, but, with the nats, he seemed nervous, unsure. It was strange... as if the real Spector was left in Manchester. It was an unfortunate sign of things to come.

In June 2006, Spector signed with West Ham. Initially, it was a good fit. West Ham used Spector often at any spot on defense. West Ham liked Spector and extended his contract. Over the subsequent seasons, Spector shifted regularly from the bench to the field, depending on injuries. He had a serviceable season in 08/09, faring well against lesser competition, but he always struggled against the elite strikers. That summer, Bob Bradley picked Spector to play in the Confederations Cup in South Africa. Spector started every match and was pivotal in the crucial wins against Egypt and Spain. It looked like the youngster finally arrived on the international scene.

Hopes were high when he returned that August to West Ham. For the 09/10 season, Spector earned 21 starts for West Ham. Yet, that's the end of the good news. While he did get minutes, his play suffered. Over the course of the year, Spector seemed to lose his technical ability, speed, and, ultimately, his confidence. The timing for this slump proved especially painful. Looming that summer was the World Cup - a chance to redeem himself in front of billions. He never made it off the bench. Bradley opted instead for Jonathan Bornstein. If Spector couldn't seize the position over Bornstein, did he have a future with the national team? Did he have a future with West Ham?

This past August, Spector received a few token starts with West Ham at defense, but he was quickly supplanted. He spent the past few months not even suiting up for games. It seemed clear he was not in West Ham's plans. With the January transfer window looming, Spector's future was cloudy.

That's when a minor miracle happened - a rebirth as unexpected and unlikely as pitcher-turned-outfielder Rick Ankiel. In training, the West Ham coaches could see Spector was not working out as a defender. It's clear now that his prior success at that position - especially the success at Man U - was due to quality defensive teammates. Against superior competition, Spector was exposed. But he still had natural ability. You don't make swerving runs across the pitch as an 18 year old unless you have true soccer instincts and talent. At this point, I've got to give the West Ham staff credit. It would've been easy to write Spector off as a lost cause. Instead, they moved Spector to central midfield - the theory being that, at the top ranks, Spector doesn't have the pace to be a striker or outside defenseman, but at midfield he could rely on his natural instincts developed as a youth striker.

Apparently, the training went well, and West Ham surprised their fans (and the US supporters) by unveiling their lineup for the November 30th match against Man U - Jonathan Spector at center midfield. Against his old club, Spector shined. He scored not one but two goals in a 4-0 rout.
It was a special night.

West Ham gave Spector the nod again last weekend in a 1-0 league loss to Sunderland. No goals for Spector that time around, but he showed well enough to earn a 6.4 rating from the fans (2nd highest on the team in the losing effort). The position switch clearly opens up a world of possibility for Spector. He's just 24 and may still blossom into a Premier League talent and regular on the US Nats. Sure, the sampling size is incredibly small, but it's a rare night when an American scores twice, especially from the midfield spot.

I'm very happy for Jon Spector. He had a fortuitous youth, signing with Man U at such a young age. But since then, he's been saddled with injuries, bad timing, poor teammates, and lack of confidence. It's a great story of redemption but also a testament to the power of coaching. Coaches can't instill confidence - clearly Spector's main problem last season - but they can put a player in a position to succeed. They experimented, and, at least for this player, it's worked. On a local level, I see similar talent squandered on the Pistons and Lions. Both coaching staffs should be taken to task for not getting the most of their talent. Why is Calvin Johnson not on the field in red zone opportunities? Why is Austin Daye playing power forward? Why is Rip trying to post up?

But I won't get bogged down in the negative. The Spector story is proof that rebirth and redemption are possible - at least for one special night.

Monday, December 6, 2010

Expect Maggs to return


All signs point to Maggs returning to the D. Especially with news that Jayson Werth signed with the Nationals, the Tigers need Ordonez's bat. Carl Crawford is the one remaining big bat available, but the Tigers have to overpay to attract players. Detroit just isn't a destination city. It can't compare to Boston, LA, or NY. So Dombrowski must seriously outbid every other team to get the high-priced guys. I can't see that happening with Carl Crawford.

And that's just fine. While I love the guy's combination of power and speed, a $100M contract could seriously cripple this organization. They'd be better served giving time to Casper Wells or Brennan Boesch. Perhaps one of those kids might develop into a legit power hitter. And their price tag is a mere fraction of Crawford's or Werth's.

If Dombrowski signs only one more hitter - Maggs - the lineup would look very similar to 2010:
1. Austin Jackson, CF
2. Ryan Raburn, LF
3. Magglio Ordonez, RF
4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
5. Victor Martinez, DH
6. Carlos Guillen, 2B
7. Jhonny Peralta, SS
8. Brandon Inge, 3B
9. Alex Avila, C

I'd prefer either Boesch or Wells to Raburn, but Leyland is determined to make a major leaguer out of RyRa. He hit extremely well with the team out of contention. Let's hope he doesn't wait that long in 2011. Wells and Boesch could rotate in for either Raburn or Maggs. Martinez can rotate in at Catcher to spell Avila. And Guillen can move to DH, giving Will Rhymes time at 2B.

So, the Tigers have options. In fact, I'd say they're a fine offensive club. Defensively, they've got issues, but it's not as dire as some believe. Ordonez is a competent outfielder. Because he lacks speed, people tend to downgrade him, but I've rarely seen him completely botch a fly ball. I'd say - at worst - he's average, and he has a viable arm. Neither Wells nor Boesch would be defensive upgrades at that spot.

Raburn, though, is a defensive nightmare. He's shuttled around from 3B to 2B to Catcher to Outfield. Nothing has worked tremendously well. So they put him in left field where he does the least damage. Last season, he fared *ok* in LF and even made a handful of hit-robbing catches. Just don't expect that from him every day. And, if he's not hitting, he should be out of the lineup.

Peralta is a competent shortstop but limited in range. I expect Leyland to sub in Danny Worth when protecting a lead. Guillen, meanwhile, is a different story. I thought he'd be miserable at 2nd base last season. Like Raburn, the Tigers tried him at 3B and LF when his shortstop days were over. He didn't fare well in those spots, but he surprised at 2B. He's always had a soft glove and accurate arm. Because he doesn't have to cover as much ground at 2B, it's a decent match. I have no problem with him as the regular 2B. The main defensive troublespots are Raburn and the somewhat-limited Peralta. Also, if Martinez steps behind the dish, teams will run on him all day long. That's a problem.

So, with Werth off the table and Crawford likely signing elsewhere, my hope remains that Dombrowski focuses on starting pitching. Moving Phil Coke to the rotation is not the answer. The Tigers can't rely on Scherzer to have another world-beating 2nd half. He's still somewhat unproven. Porcello even moreso. And Galarraga? Who knows? This rotation needs help if they want to compete with the Adam Dunn-infused White Sox and the now-healthy-Morneau Twins. Too many things would need to go right for this rotation to work. I'd feel much better with another starter.

The Tigers may want to take a flyer on this guy. He's coming off injury which would lower his pricetag. He played his whole career in Colorado which also inflated his stats. In the pitcher-friendly confines of Comerica, he may find life much easier.