Analyzing Dombrowski's Moves

Back in August, I calculated that the Tigers had just $55M committed to the 2011 roster. Salaries for Maggs, Robertson, Willis, Bonderman, Laird, and Everett all came off the books - clearing an astounding $74.4M.

It's safe to say that Ilitch would prefer to limit his payroll in light of the economic situation in the D. But Ilitch is also 81 years old. He wants to win. Based on the recent moves by Dombrowski, Ilitch has given the green light to spend.

In that same post in August, I targeted catcher, 3rd baseman, and outfielder as specific areas of improvement for the Tigers. The first move Dombrowski made this offseason was to address 3rd base. With little fanfare, the Tigers re-signed Brandon Inge to a 2-year, $11M deal. That's slightly less money than his last contract. At $5.5M/year, Inge is still overpaid. He's not a good hitter, but he's a capable 3rd baseman and one of the better options on the free agent market.

Dombrowski also brought back Jhonny Peralta to play shortstop. With his solid numbers the second half of the season, I figured Peralta would return. His deal is almost identical to Inge's at roughly $5.5M/year.

With Peralta and Inge back in the fold, Dombrowski still needed to address the catcher and outfielder positions. He chose instead to pursue a pitcher. While this was not a specific area of need back in August, the Tigers' bullpen seriously sucked in the later weeks of the season. With reliable Phil Coke possibly moving to the rotation, the Tigers desperately needed to upgrade. So Dombrowski took a gamble on one-year wonder Joaquin Benoit, offering the set-up man a 3 year/$16.5M deal.

At $5.5M/year, Benoit is the 2nd highest paid set-up man in the major leagues. Since Benoit became a full-time reliever in 2006, he's posted the following stats:

2006: 4.86 ERA, 1.331 WHIP, 9.6 K/9innings

2007: 2.85 ERA, 1.171 WHIP, 9.5K/9innings

2008: 5.00 ERA, 1.667 WHIP, 8.6K/9innings (7.0 walks/9innings too!!)

2009: out with Tommy John surgery

2010: 1.34 ERA, 0.680 WHIP, 11.2K/9innings, 1.6 walks/9innings

In his five year career as a reliever, Benoit had just two good seasons. It should be noted, though, that his 2010 season was simply spectacular. Those statistics speak for themselves. If Benoit posts a 2.0 ERA and 1.0 WHIP in 2011 - numbers significantly worse than 2010 - he'd still be a valuable set-up man. For comparison sake, Phil Coke had a 3.76 ERA and 1.438 WHIP in 2010, and he was one of the Tigers' best pitchers. So Benoit was a gamble, but one worth taking, especially for a team with a desperate need.

And speaking of desperate needs, the biggest one of all was catcher. Countless times during the season, the Tigers would get men on base, and then Gerald Laird would step to the plate. He was the rally killer. I watched most of the games on my DVR, and, when I'd see Laird bat, I'd instantly skip forward as commercials followed his at-bat as surely as night follows day. Alex Avila wasn't much better. The Tigers needed to do something to improve that position, and Dombrowski made his intentions known early that Victor Martinez was a prime candidate. While he's no defensive specialist, Martinez hit more RBIs than any catcher in the AL last year. He was behind only Joe Mauer for batting average (.302) and tied for most HRs (20). The dude can hit. While he's had trouble at Comerica Park, he'll still be a tremendous upgrade from Laird.

Late last week, Dombrowski announced that Martinez will spend much of his time as a DH, so he's not a direct replacement for Laird. This may not be a horrible thing, as Alex Avila is a strong defensive catcher. With Martinez as a part-time catcher, he still gives the Tigers a strong switch-hitting bat in the middle of the order. To gain his services, Dombrowski offered him a $50M/4 year deal. Mrs. Nofrownmotown expressed frustration that Dombrowski handed out yet another big money contract (citing the failures of Sheffield, Willis, Robertson), but I don't think DD had a choice. The Tigers needed to do something. Avila is not ready to be the full-time catcher, and the Tigers apparently had money to spend.

The combined 2011 payroll for the four free agents (Inge, Peralta, Benoit, and Martinez) equals $28.25M. Incredibly, that's just 38% of the money coming off the books from 2010. With so much money left to spend, Dombrowski will definitely make a play for one of these outfielders - Carl Crawford, Jayson Werth, and Magglio. Crawford gives the Tigers the added element of speed, but he's also the priciest (commanding a long-term deal of over $20M per year). Maggs provides solid right field defense with a strong bat. While he's five years older than Werth, his offensive numbers for the first half of 2010 compare favorably. He'd also be significantly cheaper. If I were DD, I'd pursue Maggs. It won't excite the fans, but it would give him more flexibility going forward. He could sign Maggs for a 1 or 2 year deal, worth about $12M/year. That still leaves Dombrowski plenty of wiggle room to improve other positions. He could sign another slugger like Vlad Guerrero (not likely) or roll the dice on an oft-injured starting pitcher like Justin Duchscherer (more likely).

2011 could be a very interesting year.

Pistons' Recipe for Success

The Pistons are 5-8. That's nothing to write home about. Yet, I was worried they might go winless the entire first month. They actually pulled out a few wins on the road. If the Pistons are the worst team in the league, they shouldn't be beating anybody, so I suppose I can lay that moniker to rest (though I probably won't).

That 5-8 record actually places them on the outskirts of the playoffs in the East. While most fans want to "blow up" the roster and play for a top 3 pick in next year's draft, I subscribe to the belief that it's the playoff experience improves a team as much as a lottery pick. If success was about stockpiling lottery picks, the Clippers would be NBA elite. As it stands, many teams find themselves in the lottery every year, alongside the Clips - Minnesota, Golden State, New York. While teams like the Spurs and Mavs find talented players later in the draft and continue their winning ways.

As for the Pistons, they had a relatively quick rise to the top and a similarly precipitous decline. Without a star core to lean on (like Duncan/Parker or Kobe/Gasol or Nowitski/Kidd), the Pistons retooled with Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva. We're over a year into the Gordon/CV experiment, and it's clear the team still sucks. In their defense, most of the good things that happened this season were due to those two. In fact, I'd go so far as to say they're part of the solution going forward.

So, since the Pistons are 5-8 and on the cusp of a playoff spot, how can they improve? How can they work that Win/Loss record over the .500 hump?

I need to make one assumption: Dumars will not make any trades. The Pistons have a handful of tradeable commodities, notably Tayshaun Prince's expiring contract. While the team may benefit from a trade, it's not likely Prince's contract will yield the competent big man the team sorely needs. So let's just assume Tay and the rest of the players will spend this season (or at least the majority of it) in Detroit.

1. Kuester must commit to Hamilton as the team's primary scorer.

It's clear watching Hamilton this season that he's not getting the same looks. With his shooting percentage way down (42%), many of his shots are off-the-dribble. Prior to this year, the team would set double-screens to get Hamilton the ball where he could catch-and-shoot. This is his game. If Kuester wants to keep Hamilton as his starting 2-guard, he needs to play to his strength. Double-screens, stop-and-pop, drive-and-dish.

Committing to Hamilton as the primary scorer does, of course, pose two major problems. First, it hinders the development of Stuckey, who's not the best distributor in the world. And it also takes minutes away from Ben Gordon and his $50million. This post is about how best to win NOW. And I firmly believe Hamilton is still the best option. He's not as polished a shooter as BG, but he's a far superior defender. If Hamilton is focused and committed (big IF this season), he really causes problems for opposing 2-guards.

2. Greg Monroe needs to start.

Jason Maxiell and Ben Wallace are the current starting front court. Seeing them in person, Maxiell is closer to 6'5 than his listed 6'7. Ben Wallace is closer to 6'7 than his listed 6'9. This is a small, but beefy, front court. They may be able to fight for position defensively, but they are sorely lacking on the offensive side of the ball. And, against tall teams, they'll get killed on the boards. Greg Monroe, despite his youth, gives the Pistons the best combination of size, rebounding ability, and offensive IQ. He's had trouble scoring, but I'm convinced that will improve with experience. Maxiell can come off the bench and face 2nd string big men - a much more achievable task.

3. Stuckey needs to play 40 minutes a night.

Whether it's his injury or just a slump, Will Bynum is struggling. Not only is he a defensive liability right now, his quick first step is nowhere to be found. The glory days of Bynumite seem a distant memory. Yet, Stuckey is playing the best ball of his career. He's one of the few Piston guards who takes pride in defense. He's a strong player who physically matches up with any guard in the NBA. He's also finishing better around the basket and... gasp... getting calls from the officials! He's starting to put it all together. Like Chauncey before him, his best attribute may be scoring, but Stuckey is a willing passer. He can feed the hot hand (Hamilton, BG, or CV) and then take over when needed.

When Stuckey sits, the team struggles. It's as simple as that. So keep the kid in the game.

4. Charlie V should stay exactly where he is.

Miraculously, somebody on this team is happy with his role. After a disastrous 2009-10 campaign, CV got his act together in the offseason. He's simply electric off the bench. If the season ended today, CV would likely get Most Improved. Despite claims that he should start, why not leave CV in his current role where he's finally a consistent offensive threat?

5. Austin Daye must be patient.

I love his silky smooth shot, but, as of now, there's no role for Austin Daye. He's not a power forward. He's a 2 or 3, which puts him behind Hamilton and Gordon at the 2, and Prince and McGrady at the 3. There will likely be injuries, so that may open up minutes for Daye. He's still a young player and must be patient. It's better for him to wait than to get killed as a power forward.

The Rotation:

1st team

Stuckey

Hamilton

Prince

Monroe

Big Ben

2nd team

Stuckey

BG

T-Mac

CV

Maxiell

Get those guys minutes and run with the hot hand in the 4th quarter. That shortens the rotation to a more manageable 9 players. If Monroe struggles, Kuester can work in CV for some extended minutes. I'm sure he wouldn't complain.

Lions Free!

Yesterday, I had no plans to watch the Lions. I forced myself to not DVR the game. Why bother? It's Groundhog Day - same game every week.

When I heard the result, I was thrilled with my decision. What an excellent game to avoid! The Lions led into the 2nd half until they gave up a horrible, somewhat-fluky punt return for a TD. Then they fumbled inside their own 20, and Dallas quickly converted to take a 9 point lead. Game over.

What made the game even better to avoid is the fact that the game-changing punt return never should've happened! The dude stepped out-of-bounds, but the Lions were too slow to challenge. All this would've driven me crazy yesterday. Yet, since it was all happening out-of-sight, out-of-mind, I couldn't care less.

Folks, living Lions-free on Sunday is the way to be. Instead, I was treated to two wins from Detroit's other teams.

The Wings - after blowing the game against the Wild on Friday - came out flat against Calgary. The Wings had difficulty controlling the tempo through two periods and found themselves down 2. As Mickey Redmond said, "The Red Wings spoil us by playing so well... it's strange to watch them get so outplayed." Well, the game changed dramatically in the 3rd, with the Wings outshooting the Flames 14-8. Early in the 3rd, on a power play, Datsyuk deflected a Lidstrom slapshot into the net to narrow the deficit to 3-2. Then a weak back-pass by Ericsson, Rafalski struggled to corral the puck. He lost his footing, and the Flames' Alex Tanguay stole it from him and scored. It was a bone-headed play by both Ericsson and Rafalski and could've spelled doom for the rallying Wings. Yet, Zetterberg countered shortly after. With 9 minutes to go, Zetterberg split two defenseman and flipped a backhand toward goal. The puck somehow fooled Mikka Kippersoff and slid under his legs. The Wings once again narrowed the deficit to one.

With four minutes left, the Wings had a power-play on a vicious hit to Filpulla. It seemed their last chance to equalize. But they could hardly gain the zone, let alone get a shot. Calgary played extremely poised and organized defense, completely frustrating the Wings possession game. Then, with just over two minutes left, Calgary took another penalty by almost decapitating Abdelkader. Normally, I'd say the Wings were fortunate to gain these power-plays, but the penalties were undeniably stupid. The Calgary players were way too undisciplined. These were not ticky-tacky calls late in the 3rd:

So, the Wings had a man-advantage with 2 minutes to go. Mickey Redmond said they'd pull Howard to get the 2- man advantage at about the 1:30 mark. He was right. I think that was a great call because the Wings were struggling with just the 1-man advantage. They needed that extra skater, and it made a difference.

For two straight minutes, the Wings commanded the Flames' zone, peppering shots on net. The Flames could not clear the puck until the 20 second mark when a back-pass bounced over Rafalski's stick. The Wings regained the zone but lost the puck once again with 7 seconds left. It seemed all was lost - but... wait!!... one of the Flames lost his stick! The Flames were really in trouble now. Datsyuk took the puck back into the zone and fended off the three Flames who still had their sticks. He fed an onrushing Zetterberg on the left side who one-timed the pass into the back of the net with just 3 ticks left on the clock!

Then, in the extra time, thanks to great board work by Darren Helm, Lidstrom found himself one-on-one with Kippersoff. He "pulled the string" as Redmond likes to say, meaning he faked a shot, pulled the puck back, and whipped the shot behind the goalie's back with his backhand. 5-4 Red Wings win.

Pulling the string

It was just a wonderful, thrilling, come-from-behind win for the Wings.

Tomorrow, I'll cover the Pistons and their recipe for success.

Big Day

The newest Tiger
It was a big day for sports in the D.

The Pistons welcomed the Lakers and Kobe to town. The 1st place Wings took on the 2nd place Blues at the Joe. And the Tigers made a decent splash in free agency.

Pistons

Despite the final score, this game was not close. The Lakers took an early 11-2 lead. The Pistons fought back to within five, but the Lakers seemed to be toying with them. Two plays stuck out in the first half, both resulting in extended Laker possessions. The first was the Hamilton ejection. Rip was guarding Kobe near the baseline. It was fantastic, stick-em D by Rip. Kobe was forced into a difficult fadeaway that missed badly. Yet, the ref whistled Rip for a foul. Replays showed there was little, if any, contact. Rip was pissed. He must've said something quite disturbing to the ref because, seconds later, Rip was booted. Kobe got two free throws for the foul, and then two more for the double-technical.

These were four points gifted to the Lakers on a night when they didn't need any extra help. I'm not necessarily blaming the refs for this loss, of course. It's just another reminder of the main problem in the NBA - star treatment. Piston color analyst Greg Kelser offered some excellent insight during the telecast:

I can relate to his frustration. When I played, I had to guard Dr. J, Walton, and Bird. You want the ref to let you play them the same way they get to play you - which is physical and aggressive.

Kelser is always even-keel and objective. For him to have Rip's back in this says something - despite Rip irresponsibly losing his temper. Later, the refs called Austin Daye for a flagrant foul on Pau Gasol. It was iffy, but it gave the Lakers two more free throws and the chance to work the final shot in the half. The Pistons, with their sieve-like defense (especially without Hamilton), did themselves no favors.

It was a bit strange in that they played quite well on offense. Stuckey was aggressive going to the rim; Daye hit some deep jumpers; and Prince got hot too. But they simply could not compete on the other end of the floor. Big Ben is clearly not interested. He's still the team's best defender, but he's not dominating like last year. And nobody else besides Stuckey seems to have much interest in defense. Big men like Gasol have no trouble getting to the rim. In the 2nd quarter, it was painful watching the undersized Maxiell get abused every possession by Gasol.

The third quarter, as usual, was ugly. All season long, opposing teams destroyed the Pistons after halftime. It's strange because you'd imagine the players - who seem to hate Kuester so much - would be thrilled to get back on the court. But they play like they'd rather be in the locker room.

Red Wings

Watching the Wings was like watching the bizarro-world Lions. They didn't play that great and, during long stretches, let the Blues dominate. Yet, thanks to some lucky deflections, they found themselves tied 3-3 in the 3rd period.

With Jimmy Howard making some excellent saves to keep the game tied, the Wings decided to pour it on. In a span of 3 minutes, the Wings scored a shocking 4 goals. First Cleary, then Z, then Stuart, then Homer. It was astounding. Everything they touched seemed to go in.

As a fan, I felt a bit guilty. Why should my team be treated to such success on a night when they clearly weren't deserving? Perhaps it's karma for the Lions.

Tigers

With Phil Coke potentially moving to the starting rotation, the Tigers had a massive hole to fill in the bullpen. Dombrowski addressed it in a big way with the signing of Joaquin Benoit. The 3 year/$16.5million signing definitely turned heads. It's the biggest deal for a set-up man since the White Sox signed Scott Linebrink. Why such a rich deal for a guy with a career 4.47 ERA?

Benoit is not young. He'll be 33 next season. Yet, as a 32 year old, he posted startling numbers - 1.34 ERA and 0.68 WHIP - in 63 games of work. The guy gave up just 30 hits and 11 walks all season. For comparison, Joel Zumaya, who was having an excellent season before missing all of July, August, and September, gave up 32 hits and 11 walks.

The people that dislike this signing point to the fact that this season must be an aberration for Benoit. It's not that simple. Benoit spent his first five seasons as a starter, without much success. He moved to the bullpen and finally found success in 2007 with a 2.85 ERA. He sat out 2009 with Tommy John surgery, signed with the Rays, and had a career year in 2010. Just in time for a new contract.

So, yes, it's a gamble signing Benoit for three seasons. Yet, if he's able to continue on his hot streak (or at least come close to it), he'll be a savior in this town.

The Palace Prince

Folks, my apologies for neglecting my usual Monday post.

If you live in the D, you'll often hear the phrase "Groundhog Day" every Monday in the Autumn. It's a fairly obvious Lions reference. While the players and opponents change, the game remains the same. The Lions will find a way to disappoint, regress, and, ultimately, lose.

So, when facing the worst team in the NFL - the winless Buffalo Bills - the Lions proceeded to play their most uninspired football game yet. They fell behind by double-digits in the 4th quarter and looked as lifeless as Luca Brasi's fish. Shaun Hill led their obligatory comeback in the waning seconds, but he inexplicably threw the 2-point conversion pass into the stands. 14-12 Bills.

Yawn.

Is it any wonder why I was uninspired to write? In much more interesting news, the Pistons' ship has a full-fledged mutiny on its hands. Despite a somewhat successful West Coast swing (2-2), Kuester and Prince had another blow-up during yesterday's loss to the Warriors. Fellow blogger, DetroitBadBoys, attended the Pistons/Clippers game at the Staples Center and sat right behind the Pistons' bench. After some hilarious comments about his goal to get a Red Panda and Bat-signal sign in front of the TV cameras, he offered this first-hand insight:

The thing that struck me most being just feet away from the players and coaching staff was something that I sort of expected, but was surprised to see so pervasively: this is not a happy team. There was little warmth between players, zero warmth between players and coaches, very little fanfare from the bench even after big shots and next to zero excitement after a tightly-contested overtime victory.

However, the players did not seem fragmented. They fought as a team and talked to one another on the bench. But my assessment is that their unity is one not necessarily for one another so much as against Kuester. Nearly every player (CV was the notable exception) shook his head and grumbled to his teammates when benched.

If we ignore the fact that these are supremely blessed young men paid millions of dollars to play a game for a living, then perhaps the petulance is understandable. Losing is no fun. Yet, they're actually winning some games now, and the irritability continues. The team apparently hates Kuester. Should we really be surprised?

Kuester was given the unenviable task of developing young talent (Daye, Monroe, BG) without cutting into the minutes of the veterans (Prince, Hamilton). It's not possible to satisfy both goals. And Prince is no dummy. He can see the writing on the wall. He knows he's got an expiring contract. He knows he'll be coveted by other teams. I wouldn't be surprised if he's already talking to other organizations. Why should he respect the coach? He's got short-timers disease!

I'm relatively torn about Prince in this situation. While he's one of the few trade-able assets on the roster for a team that desperately needs a trade, he does provide value. Austin Daye is a fine shooter and burgeoning talent. Yet, even in peak form, I'm not sure he'd help the team win like Prince. Daye can rebound and block shots, but does he have Prince's basketball IQ? While Prince ain't flashy, he's a proven winner. That's probably what makes this season so unbearable for him.

Hamilton, on the other hand, is a worse fit on the current Piston roster. The Pistons are no longer built to set double-picks so Rip can get open looks. When he was at his peak, the vast majority of Rip's points came on quick jumpers off curls. On this current roster, he's usually taking his man off the dribble or posting him up. This is not Rip's game. It's no wonder he's shooting under 40% and averaging a career low 13.0 ppg. If anybody should find a new home, it's Rip. Yet, this is the NBA. Trades are about salary first; the player second. Rip has three years remaining at $12.6million per year. No team is going to take that on.

My guess is that the Pistons will ultimately move Rip to the bench in favor of Gordon. It's possible Rip may thrive when paired with Will Bynum. But it's more likely that Rip will sulk. The magic 8-ball says the Pistons will buy out his contract at some point next season.

Today, though, he's still a starter. And the team hasn't played that poorly. They still don't know how to defend or rebound, but they have interesting parts. Too many parts actually. That's the problem facing Kuester, and it's frustrating for the players to have no defined role. One night Austin Daye is a starter, challenging the NBA record for most consecutive 3-pointers. The next night he gets a DNP-CD.

The NBA's greatest soap opera returns home tomorrow to face the Lakers.

Spoke too soon

Today, Ilitch's 30 days of exclusive bidding for the Pistons expired. According to Crains, Karen Davidson will now reach out to previously interested parties.

The most interesting aspect of the linked article is that Ilitch's bid was roughly $350million. That's $125million less than the estimated Pistons' value by Forbes. It's also $100million less than what the Golden State Warriors sold for earlier this year.

For comparison sake (since the ABA/NBA merger of 1976):

NBA Titles

Pistons - 3

Warriors - 0

Conference Titles

Pistons - 7

Warriors - 0

Playoff Appearances

Pistons - 22

Warriors 8

In short, the Warriors have an NBA team. The Pistons have a brand.

Still, the far-reaching effects of the Great Recession make it a prime time to buy the Pistons. Attendance, while at or near the top of the NBA for a decade is now mired in mediocrity. The poor attendance, coupled with the lack of a marquee player, cheapen the franchise's value. Karen Davidson, in a desperate attempt to avoid paying taxes for her inheritance of the team, may actually lose money by selling now when the team's value is so low. If she pays the exorbitant inheritance tax and holds onto the team for... say 5 years... it's possible the value will rebound to the Forbes estimate of $475million or even higher.

I'm no multi-millionaire, but I call her decision to sell now pretty short-sighted.

Welcome to Ilitchland

Mike Ilitch will soon be the owner of the Detroit Pistons. While Ilitch worked wonders for both the Tigers and, especially, Red Wings, I'm a little nervous about him taking a 3rd franchise.

With Ilitch so invested in the city of Detroit, fans wouldn't have to worry about the teams moving. That's a definite plus. Yet, what if his empire starts to crumble? What if Little Caesars experiences some massive Enron-esque scandal? It's doubtful, I know... but possible. Ilitch would be forced to sell three friggin' teams! I also wonder how much one teams' finances could affect the other. If the Tigers free-fall in 2011, would Ilitch cut corners on bringing in high-priced talent for the Pistons?

That hasn't happened so far. Ilitch always capped-out the Wings while paying big bucks for Tiger players. I just wonder if the Pistons may tip the scales. While folks around here are fairly optimistic about the Ilitch purchase, I just can't get on-board the happy train. Monopolies scare me.

Ilitch never showed much interest in basketball in the past, but he said in August:

Marian and I grew up here, we raised our family here and we built our businesses here. Detroit is our home. When I read in the paper there was the chance that this great sports town could lose one of its professional sports franchises, I just didn't see how we could let that happen. The Pistons, just like the Red Wings, Tigers and the Lions, have a rich and storied tradition in this community and they've brought pride to fans and our community.

Even if Ilitch may not love basketball (still just speculation), he does sound like an impassioned sportsfan and supporter of the city. That's what we would want most in an owner. We want the owner to burn with anger when the team loses. While he has many detractors, nobody can say Mark Cuban doesn't care about his Mavericks. He's their biggest fan, and you can see on his face how much the losses hurt. Maverick fans rest comfortably knowing their owner wants to win above anything else. Despite supporting the payroll for three teams, we'll have to hope Ilitch has the same desire.

From a business perspective, the deal does make sense. Ilitch would take on the entire Palace empire, which includes the lucrative Palace venue and DTE Energy Theater (formerly Pine Knob). DTE still packs 'em in the summer, and the Palace draws the top acts in the country. Those venues alone might be worth the purchase price. Furthermore, Tom Wilson now works for Mike Ilitch. Tom Wilson was the long-running president of the Palace. He helped guide the Pistons from middling franchise in the early 80s to the juggernaut of the early 90s. As much as anyone, he's responsible for the tremendous entertainment value that is the Palace of Auburn Hills. While many bemoaned its location, the Palace served as the template upon which other NBA-specific venues were built. And, despite the awful team it now houses, the Palace staff still find creative ways to engage fans ("Mason", dot-races, Spare Tires), and tickets are dirt cheap (4 tix for $44!). They're definitely trying. So, if Tom Wilson regains control of the Piston ship, I'd feel the team is in good hands.

With Joe Louis Arena on its last legs, most folks speculate the Pistons and Red Wings would soon share a new venue downtown. While that would make it easier for me to see games, I'm unsure how that would affect attendance. The Pistons have a ton of supporters in the Auburn Hills area. Would they all make the trek down to the D? Would folks from downriver don Big Ben jerseys and buy a ticket for the team downtown? My guess is that, if the team wins, fans will come in droves. If the team stays mired in lottery-ville, they'll be lucky to average 10k per game. I hope I'm wrong.

Thank you sir, may I have another?

With their heartbreaking loss to the Jets yesterday, the Lions did a public service. They reminded all the breathless fans just why they should spend their Sunday afternoons picking apples. Count my Dad and I among the breathless. I have no one to blame but myself. After countless posts pleading with fans to avoid the Lions, I couldn't follow my own advice. I admit... I was excited by the prospect of watching a legitimate NFL team in Detroit once again. Yet, just like their forefathers, the Lions snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

It was such a depressing defeat that long-time Lions center, Dominic Raiola said, "This is the worst loss ever, I think, in my ten years." Folks, to put that statement in perspective, consider that Raiola has a shocking 117 losses to chose from. This loss is worse than the 2002 overtime loss to the Bears when Mohrningweg "took the wind." It's worse than the 41-9 loss to the Colts on Thanksgiving Day in 2004. Worse than the infamous 41-17 loss to the Bengals in 2005 when frustrated Lions' fans, in their Millen Man March, protested outside Ford Field and jeered the home team at every turn inside it ("A weird feeling" said Bengal QB Carson Palmer). Worse than the 2005 OT loss to the Packers where the Lions were inexplicably robbed of a game-winning safety when Packers RB Samkon Gado desperately flipped the ball to no one while getting tackled in the endzone. The referees strangely ruled attempted pass, ignoring a holding call in the endzone as well as intentional grounding. And, last but not least, worse than every single loss during the 0-16 season.

Phew, I'm exhausted just writing that paragraph of horrors.

The Lions indeed have a long and storied history of losing. Yet, the way they gifted the victory to the Jets yesterday truly stands out as a feces-colored gem among the pile o' historic crap.

By my count, the offense had two chances to win the game for the team, and the defense actually had three. They all failed. On the Lions' second-to-last possession (the one where Stafford got hurt), the Lions had a chance to run out the clock and potentially put points on the board. Yet, they were pinned deep and failed to gain more than 6 yards. The Jets got the ball back with 4:26 remaining and down 10 points. It took them just 6 plays and 1:40 to score a touchdown. That's some bad defense, folks.

Then on the ensuing Lions possession, they ran twice, forcing the Jets to use their last timeout. After the two-minute warning, the Lions had a 3rd and 6. Instead of running up the gut, the Lions try a play-action fake. The problem, in my mind, is not that the Lions attempted a pass. I see good teams risk the pass all the time to get that first down. They're playing to win... to not give the ball back. I respect that. The problem is that after Stanton faked the handoff, two Jet players were right in his face, ten yards behind the line of scrimmage! Clearly two Lions completely blew their blocks. Then Stanton made the bone-headed decision to actually pass the ball. The pass bounced about two yards short of his intended receiver, and the Jet sideline stared in disbelief at their good fortune (and ineptitude of the entire Lion organization).

Despite the Jets having just one timeout, the Lions' possession took just 52 seconds off the clock.

After a great punt by Nick Harris, the Lions defense still had an opportunity to preserve the win. Yet, when the Jets had a 3rd and 9 from their own 23, Mrs. Nofrownmotown wondered why I was so depressed. It seemed the Lions were in good position to win the game. My only response was, "It's the Lions." The Jets easily converted that 3rd down and wasted little time getting to the Lions 18 yard line. Julian Peterson helped their cause with a stupid late-hit personal foul, pushing the Jets officially into field goal range. This is when my Dad officially lost it, cursing Peterson and letting his 50+ years of Lion frustration out in full force.

When Folk tied the game with the field goal, the Lions' fate was sealed. The Jets of course won the toss and mercifully ended the game five plays later.

Thank you, Lions. My Sundays are mine once again.

When you're wrong...

Almost a month ago, I predicted the Great Decline of the Wings. Through ten games, the Wings proved me wrong. I figured the Wings would struggle with the youthful vigor of other teams in the West. So far, that has not been the case.

The Wings, despite the injury to Rafalski, are healthy and clicking on both sides of the ice. It's still incredibly early, but Wings' fans must be happy with the play to date. Moving Franzen to that second line really helped distribute goal production. And, thanks to stellar goaltending by Jimmy Howard, the defense did not suffer terribly when Rafalski went down.

So, yeah, I was wrong. It's still early, of course, but I hope I stay wrong.

I took a glance at the teams' stats today, and clicked on their plus/minus. While the plus/minus stat has its faults in other sports, it's quite telling for hockey players. For many years, it was the only way to truly gauge Lidstrom's awesomeness. You just can't fake a +40 rating - something he's done four times in his career. Below the Wings are ranked in order of plus/minus through the first ten games:

Is it any wonder why Hudler's been a healthy scratch the past few games? With a few exceptions, that list is practically a ranking of the best players on the team from top-to-bottom. Some interesting notes... Bertuzzi is tied for 2nd best with a +6. Watching him last season, it was clear the guy had some hockey left in him. While he was known as a bruising goal scorer early in his career, I found myself impressed with his skill level. He meshed well with the highly skilled players like Datsyuk and Z. With his great hands and hockey IQ, he might just get 50 points this year.

Interestingly, Stuart is high on the list with a +5, but his regular partner, Kronwall, is way down the list at -2. Due to the Fox/Dish drama, I missed a handful of the early Wing games, so I'm wondering if they were split more often than not. Thanks to Ansar Khan of MLive, who often posts the line pairings, I see that Kronwall spent significant time with Ruslan Salei, while Stuart moved up to partner with Lidstrom. That makes sense. It shows that Babcock still relies on Lidstrom as the top defenseman, with Stuart as his #2. I wouldn't argue with that ranking, though I expect it to change when Rafalski returns.

Now that Ericsson is healthy, he's partnering with Lidstrom. It's helped him through his first two games. Let's hope it continues.

One more thing with regard to plus/minus... I find it strange to see Helm so far down the list. We all know the kid has talent. My guess is that his -2 has more to do with lack of production than anything else. He's tallied just two assists all season. Nobody expects him to light the stat sheet on fire, but he should have a goal or two. For a fourth line player, if he could keep his plus/minus around 0 all season, I'd be happy. Those guys are supposed to enter the game, keep the opposition in check, and, in general, disrupt their offensive flow. If they notch a goal here or there, that's great. Just make sure the other team doesn't score. With Abdelkader on the 3rd line, the 4th line remains Miller-Helm-Eaves. Barring injury, I don't expect that to change.

Tonight, the Wings take on a struggling Edmonton side. Edmonton has always been a tough place to play, even during the down years. Let's hope the Wings continue their run of good form and separate themselves from the pack a little bit.

Best Team on Paper

Happier Times
It's official. The Pistons are now historically bad. The 0-5 start is the worst since 1980. That's 30 Piston teams in a row that all started better than this pathetic incarnation. The 2000-01 squad with Eric Montross at Center? Better. The 93-94 squad with Sean Elliot (the most disgruntled Piston ever)? Better. Kent Bensen's 81-82 squad? Better.

Unfortunately, it gets worse. For as long as I've known the Pistons, they've been a magnet for drama. From Isiah's "trading" of Dantley to Laettner and Stackhouse's fistfight to Rodman's feud with every single coach not named Chuck Daly to the Malice at the Palace to Dumars unceremonious firing of Rick Carlisle to Allen Iverson vs Rip Hamilton vs Michael Curry, they're an NBA soap opera with a tradition that would rival General Hospital. You can change the names, but the results remain the same.

After the Celtics game, Kuester called out his team. He wanted a vocal leader to step up. Tayshaun took this personally: "(Kuester) has to do some things better too." Big Ben, once a staunch Kuester supporter, offered little comment to the media, "I'm not going to touch that." But while Ben and Tayshaun were the center of attention after the Celtics loss, it's apparent now that Kuester was actually directing his comments toward a different player - the one player who was handed the keys to the franchise, a starting position, and three years to develop his game - Rodney Stuckey.

Last night, the Pistons took on the Hawks, and, in general, they played quite well, despite ultimately losing in the familiar collapse-in-the-4th-quarter way. I noticed during the 2nd quarter that T-Mac and Austin Daye handled most of the point-guard duties. That continued through most of the 2nd half. Where was Stuckey? It was strange. He was supposed to be the cornerstone of the rebuilding process. He didn't get injured, so why wasn't he playing? At the time, it didn't really matter. The T-Mac led offense fared quite well. The Pistons hung tight with the Hawks. Daye, T-Mac, and Greg Monroe offered the welcome burst of energy. They couldn't defend worth a lick, but neither could the starters.

After the inevitable 4th quarter collapse, news leaked that Stuckey was benched. Apparently, Stuckey ignored Kuester during a stoppage in play. Kuester immediately subbed him out, and the kid didn't play the final 20:56. Add Kuester vs Stuckey to the long list of Piston feuds.

With all the support the kid has received, it's pretty shocking to see Stuckey at the center of controversy. Perhaps part of his ill humor is the fact that Dumars did not offer him a contract extension prior to last weekend's deadline. He's the first Dumars draft pick eligible for an extension that did not receive one. This is Dumar's first ever vote of no-confidence for Stuckey. It must've stung, but it was a sound business decision. Stuckey played pretty well the first few games, but they were all losses. His development through his first three seasons was fine for a #15 overall pick. But it wasn't enough for the kid with Billups-level potential. He finishes poorly at the rim, doesn't pass all that well, and, in general, doesn't make those around him better. On the flipside, he does have good athleticism, a decent jumpshot, and rarely turns it over. So, he's a mixed bag. And Joe D may want him back. He just doesn't want to lock him in right now.

It's also possible the decision had more to do with the team's ownership issues or the looming NBA lockout. Either way, Stuckey was likely disappointed. Add that to the sting of the losses and Kuester's comments and you have a full-fledged feud. This is coming from the kid who thought the Pistons had the best team in the NBA on paper. Best team on paper = worst team on court. Right now, they're like the Knicks during the Isiah Regime - great individual talents with zero chemistry. At least last night showed flashes of what the team could become. It may be a lost cause at this point, but Austin Daye and Greg Monroe did show an ability to make the team better. Daye has to play at the 2 or 3, and Monroe needs minutes. Satisfy both those requirements, and the wins should eventually come. But with all the drama, it's more likely the team will implode.

0-4(ever)

Last night the Pistons were thoroughly tossed around and manhandled by a veteran-laden Celtic squad that very much resembles the Pistons of three years ago. It's true. It was only a few years ago that the Pistons were squashing the pawns of the NBA with their efficient, calculated offense and swarming defense. They were elite, but we could all see they were on the downside of a fantastic run. The Celtics did not change much in the offseason. They are still a top-tier team, but, barring a massive rebirth from Garnett, they won't win a title.

Of course, that didn't matter last night. The Celtics used and abused the Pistons like Tyson versus Glass Joe. It was such a thorough demolition that I was left wondering if the Pistons may have actually regressed from last year's inept squad. I fear it's true. I think they're actually worse. Guys like Stuckey, Charlie V, and Gordon still put out the same effort, but I think Prince and, especially, Big Ben don't care anymore. Their heart is not in it. When Tay was on the court, the Pistons were outscored by a shocking 27 points. The dude's a good player, but he's got to be wondering how his great life turned so sour. In a sign of how far things have fallen, the once stoic, quiet Price found himself arguing with hecklers during the game. Wha?!

I predicted that the Pistons may go 0-for-November. They're well on their way. We all figured this season could be ugly, but did we really think it would be this bad? This soon? Chris Iott from MLive sees the Pistons as a team on the brink. John Niyo of the Detroit News says they're a team in crisis. Yes, they're just 4 games into an 82 games season, but, perhaps due to the gut-wrenching ways they've lost the first three games, they've got nothing left to play for. The losses sapped all the good will. They know the team's not going to the playoffs. Most of the good pieces will be traded. And Kuester will get fired. So why care?

One small positive from last night was the play of Greg Monroe. On the surface, it was a poor game - the dude was 0-6 from the field. Yet, in his first meaningful minutes of the season, Monroe pulled down 10 boards in just 18 minutes. He limited his fouls and picked up two assists. And, most importantly, he brought some much needed energy to the court. It was pretty sweet seeing the Pistons trot out a big man with some hop in his step. He outhustled the Celtics on a handful of boards and showed no fear going to the basket. His shot selection was obviously poor, but that will improve with time. It was the same way in the rookie league. He began the season not knowing his limitations and eventually settled into a groove. With a team and fanbase desperately needing something to look forward to, the answer - at least right now - should be Greg Monroe. Play the kid. Let's see what he's got. If nothing else, he's got youthful enthusiasm. The Pistons right now are the oldest young team in the NBA.

And Austin Daye finally found the net. He shot 50% from the field - 16pts, 5 reb, and 2 turns. For me, it's pretty clear. The 2010-11 season should be about Austin Daye, Greg Monroe, and Stuckey. The Pistons' hope for the future hinges on their development.

Odds and Ends

First off, big ups to the Lions for taking down a perennial Lion killer in the Redskins. The Lions took a 20-19 early in the 4th, but the Skins took the ensuing kickoff to the house to regain the lead. That's exactly where the Millen-era Lions would've packed up and gone home. But, not this team. They rallied and pounded the Skins for 17 more points, including a clutch 4th and 1 call from Schwartz.

Still down 25-20, the Lions had a 4th and 1 from the Skins' 10 yard line, with just 3:30 remaining. My guess is that previous coaches would've kicked the field goal and hoped the defense could give the offense one last possession. Not Schwartz. He went for the lead. Stafford delivered a strike to Calvin on a slant, and the Lions never looked back.

I'd have more to write about this game, but it was BLACKED OUT locally. Not a huge surprise considering this is still the losing-est franchise in the NFL. Despite all the good feelings this morning, the team has a tough hill to climb to win back all the disenfranchised fans. Clutch wins like Sunday will definitely help (as will a win on Thanksgiving).

And speaking of blacked out, the Pistons game against the Bulls on Saturday was also unavailable to the folks in the D. Perhaps it's a sign of how far things have fallen. There hasn't been a blacked out Piston game since perhaps the teal years?? Regardless, the network did the fans a favor. The Pistons blew a 20pt second-half lead in yet another loss. The Bulls set a franchise record by outscoring the Pistons by 25 points in the 4th quarter (34-9).

I did get a chance to watch the Pistons blow yet another lead the night before against the Thunder. This game had a bit more positive feeling. Ben Gordon unleashed his offensive arsenal for 32 points. Down 2 in the waning seconds, Gordon drove to the hoop and was met by an army of defenders. He wisely passed it off to Charlie V who calmly nailed a baseline 3 pointer. It was a dream finish for Joe D... except 7 seconds still remained on the clock. Tayshaun denied the ball from Kevin Durant, so OkC had to inbound to Jeff Green instead. Green looked desperately for Durant, but, with time running out, had no choice but to take it to the hoop himself. He found the path completely unencumbered and converted the easy layup. Considering Ben Gordon almost found himself maimed after attacking the hoop the previous possession, it was shocking to see how porous the Pistons' D was. Apparently, the Pistons had their best defenders on the floor too.

To say the Pistons have trouble closing out games is an understatement. They've got massive, massive problems. Currently at 0-3, they've got upcoming games against Boston and Atlanta - two sure losses. If they can't win the sixth game against Charlotte, they may go winless for the month of November. The teams' psyche is fragile. Confidence in their teammates and Kuester is shaky at best. I'll be surprised if Kuester lasts through December. His insistence on benching Greg Monroe, despite getting outrebounded in every game, is baffling. The Pistons are now 25th in league in rebounding differential.

It's going to be a long, ugly season. It's especially tough watching DeMarcus Cousins already average 13.3 and 7 boards. If not for that fluke end to last season (3-game win streak, lost coin flip, etc), he'd be a Piston.